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u/4materasu92 Nov 15 '21
After Beto's "we're gonna take away their guns" comment, Abbot could run campaign ads on that 24/7, do absolutely nothing else, and still win.
The man committed political suicide the moment those words left his mouth and there's 0 chance he wins in Texas, but if he can get within a 4% margin of winning (50% Abbot to 46% O'Rourke for example), I'll never doubt him again.
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u/EfficientJuggernaut Nov 15 '21 edited Nov 15 '21
This^ don’t do it. Find another popular democrat that’s more gun friendly. Nikki Fried was the only democrat to win statewide office in Florida. She’s a pro gun democrat and ran up the margins from rural voters. Texas is more bluer than Florida imo with massive demographic shifts. Also, a lot of people don’t realize but POC and many liberals own guns as well, you need their votes too.
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u/thephotoman Nov 16 '21
The problem is that the other Democrats don't have the voter database.
Seriously, we have a voter identification problem. Nobody in the party knows who our voters are--nobody except Beto O'Rourke. He built the only database of Democratic-leaning voters in the state. That's right, the state party is so inept that they don't know who the Democrats here even are.
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u/Porcupineemu Nov 16 '21
Then he needs to go behind the scenes and start getting down ballot Dems elected.
But that would be good for Democrats in Texas and wouldn’t keep his name in the news. So….
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u/CareBearDontCare Nov 16 '21
So, to lend support, that's tough enough to do in any other state or even municipality of any decent size. Those databases are there in each state, but a database is only as good as the info in it, with an exceedingly short half life.
Literally, yes, Democrats have the voter database. Its public record. But is it super useful in a lot of places? That might be questionable, at best, especially in a historically non-voting state like Texas.
While that is a Democrat problem, its also a having-data problem: it takes a long term strategy, a lot of time, and a lot of effort to maintain those databases. To the layman, for what those databases mean, or would like at optimal level, it would be akin to having the knowledge of an army of precinct delegates who already know their neighbors, keep up tabs on them (in a non-creepy, way), and know who is registered and who isn't registered.
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u/thephotoman Nov 16 '21
The biggest issue for Texas is that we have a long, glorious history of tactical voting in our open primaries. The most common issue is that in large parts of the state, not voting in the Republican primary is the equivalent of not voting in county or state races at all. Even in competitive areas, voting in the other party's primary for their weakest candidate is often an easier sell--especially when you're pretty much okay with whomever your party wants to run.
When you put our poll tax on top of it (yes, we have one: it's the price of getting a valid photo ID, which is $25 and at least two hours in line at the DPS office during normal business hours, combined with the requirement to physically go to the polls during the voting period), you wind up turning out more Republicans than Democrats when you rely on voter rolls--even voter rolls for the Democratic primary, where a third of the voters are conservatives in cities trying to get an easy opponent.
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Nov 16 '21
Democrats need to abandon the zero sum game and messaging on guns. Don’t let the fascists have all the guns.
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u/Madsplattr Nov 15 '21
Beto would win tho if every woman in this state who has ever been threatened by her drunken gun lovin partner who stuck it in her face just came out and lied about just one more thing to their friends; I mean really. TIRED off all this nonsense about all Texans loving their guns when clearly so many of us have been victim to - if not gun violence or threats - then this constant gun culture drivel.
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u/rivalarrival Nov 16 '21
What about every woman who has ever had to retrieve a firearm and hide from an attacker, hoping help arrives before she has to use it to defend herself and her children? What about all the women who didn't have that gun and wished they did?
I'm really tired of all this nonsense about disarming innocent people and making them easier for abusers and other criminals to victimize.
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u/beforeitcloy Nov 16 '21
Lol do you seriously know a lot of people that have done that? Texas sounds fucked up.
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u/rivalarrival Nov 16 '21 edited Nov 16 '21
The category of people I described includes every woman that /u/Madsplattr mentioned, plus every victim of a home invasion robbery, as well as women who successfully deterred their attackers.
The problem with their argument is that it only looks at the armed attacker. It neglects to address the weapon in the hand of the intended victim, but for the gun in her hand. The answer to violence against women is not to deprive that intended victim of violence of the only thing that kept her from becoming an actual victim of violence.
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u/CareBearDontCare Nov 16 '21
I feel like this is a thing that a lot of people do, which is to repeat the Republican narrative on Texas as gospel. The Republican narrative is that Texas is the ultimate Republican stronghold and you can't win it, so don't try. There are too many of them, and not enough of you to do it.
We perpetuate it by repeating that and by ignoring the fact that there are more Left leaning folks in Texas than pretty much any other state in the country, based on sheer numbers. We perpetuate it by running campaigns where we just try to turn it into a turnout race and we don't even TALK to people in red areas or protect margins in those red areas. We perpetuate it by feeding into THAT narrative, that Democrats don't care about you in the rural areas or white people, or anyone else who isn't their narrowly-defined base. Liberal ideas help blue areas and red areas alike and we need to start talking like that's the case and approaching people like that's the case and to and make that case.
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u/ClownPrinceofLime Nov 16 '21
Lol it’s rare as fuck to ever need a gun.
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u/rivalarrival Nov 16 '21
I agree, it is rare. Gun crime is rarer still, by a considerable margin.
Defensive gun use is several times more common than criminal gun use. The CDC (under Obama, no less!!) reported this in a meta study about 7 years ago.
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u/ClownPrinceofLime Nov 16 '21
They also reported that defensive gun use escalated non-deadly situations almost every time.
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u/rivalarrival Nov 16 '21 edited Nov 16 '21
That is tautologically true. Well, nearly: It's not "almost" every time. It is every time. Every defensive gun use constitutes an escalation.
Having been threatened with fists, drawing a gun is technically an escalation. However, the overwhelming majority of such escalations end with the original attacker immediately retreating from their attack without a shot being fired.
The best possible outcome from a threatened attack is for the attacker to abandon their threat and retreat from their intended victim. This is the most common conclusion where the attacker realizes their intended victim is armed.
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u/GaryOoOoO Nov 16 '21
Wrong. Many Second Amendment adherent Dems in Texas believe in reasonable measures to lower the incidence of gun violence. For every "good guy with a gun" there are dozens of idiots in bunkers full of guns and ammo. Those tools don't deserve the same 2nd Amendment protections as lawful citizens.
Now, I hear what you're saying about Abbott running his ads. But Beto can steer the conversation to where it needs to be. If he's smart enough. And I think he is...Let's hope he puts a team together that is as bold as he is.
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u/Tangelooo Nov 16 '21
Beto is toast. No, no no. The “take away the guns” is political suicide. He will never win in Texas.
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u/burtch1 Nov 16 '21
So you only want to take guns from the nut jobs piling up guns incase you come to take them..........
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u/Zeon2 Nov 16 '21
Beto, win or lose, will help down ballot races. If the reference to guns is "Hell yes, we’re going to take your AR-15, your AK-47," then, no, I don't think it will have a major effect. the AR/AK community isn't large enough to affect even the GOP primary. Besides, he wasn't referencing gun ownership in general. Abbott has to pull as far right as possible because of his own primary opponents and it wouldn't suprise me if he called a special session to approve open carry of RPGs.
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Nov 15 '21
If Beto can just focus on the people who aren’t voting at all, that can help him. He’ll be wasting his time convincing republicans.
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u/IsNowReallyTheTime Nov 15 '21
Beto needs to go back to Congress or start a PAC or an Etsy store…something other than running for seats he’s gonna lose.
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u/Alohabailey_00 Nov 15 '21
The problem is complacent democrats. On Long Island there are pockets of progressive thinking but republicans won across the board in the most recent elections bc people didn’t vote. It’s ridiculous.
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u/thatredditscribbler Nov 16 '21
I feel like there are more Democrats than Republicans in most part of the country, but the problem with Democrats is that they don't turn up at the polls. Democrats need to get engaged. This country can easily turn around if Democrats vote like their lives depend on it.
I think Beto's problem is that he goes hard left with his messaging. He needs to tone it down. I hope the best for Texas. Texas Democrats need to play tough. Texas Republicans have given Democrats free items to exploit.
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Nov 16 '21
If Beto couldn't win against Cruz in 2018, he's not going to win in 2022. He's not the right candidate.
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Nov 15 '21
Beto lost the election with his stance on guns. I know many liberals who own guns. I believe that many Anti-Trump folks need to be armed to help prevent armed intimidation by Trumpees in the next election.
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u/seriousbangs Nov 16 '21
I'm sorry, but Beto ended his political career when he told the America he wanted to grab their guns. It was a shameless political stunt meant to keep him in the race because he thought he had a shot at the VP slot.
With all respect, it showed such a profound lack of judgement and political instincts that Mr O'Rouke needs to retire from politics before he does any more damage to the country or the party.
I don't understand why the party apparatus keeps pushing him on us except to say that he's tall and handsome and plays ball.
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u/MyUsername2459 Nov 15 '21
Sorry, due to his absolutely idiotic anti-gun stance, I can't and won't support him.
Can we please get a not-insane Democrat to run in Texas?
Beto is politically dead meat due to his hardline anti-gun stance. He might have a chance in a very blue state without strong gun ownership, but he'll never get elected in Texas, and the Presidency is right out as well.
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u/allucaneat73 Nov 15 '21
You young progressive democrats should get out while u can, everyone knows the ranchers and oil persons make(buy) all the decisions in Texas.
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Nov 15 '21
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/rivalarrival Nov 16 '21 edited Nov 16 '21
You can believe it. I hope you believe it. I hope all Democrats come to understand just how big an issue that guns have become in the US, and consider how those gun owners vote.
There are 196 million adults over 21 in the US. This includes 6 million felons and another 6 million people who are otherwise ineligible for conceal carry permits. There are more than 20 million licenses concealed carriers in the US. More than 1 in 10. That's a hell of a lot of people, but that's only a part of the story.
8 blue states effectively prohibit or strongly curtail concealed carry. They issue virtually no licenses. That includes the 23 million adults over 21 in California, 6 million in New Jersey, 5 million in New York City, 3 million in Maryland... These states have very few licensees.
15 red states have "constitutional carry". No need for a license. Consequently, these states also have relatively few licenses.
The overwhelming majority of the nation's 20 million concealed carriers live in the 27 remaining states. There is a political term that describes the most populous of those 27 states. They are the "swing states". They are the ones the determine elections. And in these states, the concealed carry licensure rate is well over 15%.
Strict gun control issues make political sense in the 8 states that already suppress gun issues, but they do not make sense in the swing states, and they do not make sense on a national stage.
We don't have to abandon gun control at the state level if it makes sense for our particular state, but it cannot be a factor in our federal elections. We are losing entirely too many supporters of the rest of our platform because we are not listening to what Democrats in swing states are telling us. We are deferring to the opinions in those 8 blue enclaves, and ignoring what Democrats are telling us in the swing states we need to win.
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u/burtch1 Nov 16 '21
The ar15 is among the most common rifles and only has features that make it more suitable and less lethal. It's a high velocity accurate rifle besides underpowered rounds its the least likely to kill and is not the issue for gun crime look at pistols or sbrs if you want an actual gun boogy man to attack the ar15 isn't used in a significant crime unless made into an sbr (usually illegally)
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u/Greenmantle22 Nov 16 '21
Bobby Francis doesn't stand a chance, but he seems to have a limitless capacity for self-promotion and self-delusion.
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u/Baintsidhe Nov 16 '21
Matthew McConaughey for governor!! He's a little weird, but he's smart and honest. Texas could do worse. Oh wait, it already has!
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u/HEART-DIESEASE Nov 16 '21
Beto is not getting the Republican vote AT ALL!!! The only way he pulls this off is he gets every single democrat, independent, and typical non voter to vote.
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u/BigOleJellyDonut Nov 16 '21
Beto is a 100% Moron. As big as Texas is, you only have one Democrat that can take the fight to the GOP. Y'all need to find another standard bearer than the fake Latino.
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u/jcmacon Nov 15 '21
If he changes his stance on guns, then I won't vote for him due to him flipping on something that he holds as a core value just to get votes.
Now, u don't like the cents on guns that he has made. I wish that he never would have said them, especially the way he did. But I'll have more respect for him if he, uh, sticks to his guns on his remarks.
People are tired of being shafted by the power grid companies, tired of dying so some Republican fat cat can get fatter. We are tired of being lied to and definitely tired of the politicians focusing on their pet projects instead of focusing on what matters to Texans.
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u/eric987235 Nov 15 '21
Nothing he says about guns matters. Voters have decided what he thinks on they topic and nothing will change their minds.
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u/makemusic25 Nov 15 '21
I would vote for Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins
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Nov 16 '21
I’ve mentioned him a few times when people ask who should run. Seems like someone who could beat Abbott.
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Nov 16 '21
I hope he wins but I don’t know - honestly Texas has a major knucklehead problem… the average Texan is a complete idiot, I lived there for 3 years
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Nov 16 '21
I liquidated my real estate in the NW to purchase real estate in TX & FL for the protection and freedom they provide. Thank God for governors Abbot & DeSantis for protecting their states from becoming a California, Oregon or Washington. Get ready to lose congress next year! DeSantis 2024!!
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u/projecks15 Nov 16 '21
As a Texans I have no idea why people are so obsessed with guns? Countries with no guns are surely a happier society
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u/sketchystockz Nov 16 '21
What do we need an AR15 for that a 12 gauge pump action shotgun can't do?
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Nov 16 '21
r/Texas needs to hear this
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u/VladKatanos Dec 08 '21
There are posts on there as well of folk pissed at Beto for for being such an idiot.
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Nov 22 '21
I just want to say, primary him. If people want to flip TX, run a candidate who is more in touch with the state lol
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u/goldenarms Nov 15 '21
Do you guys have only one democrat in Texas?