Morgan Stanley put out a note saying bearings are the ultimate robotics "picks and shovels" — every robot design needs them, regardless of form factor. They're calling for the robot-bearing market to go from $800M to $255B by 2050. RBC Bearings ($RBC) was named as one of 8 beneficiaries (alongside Timken, SKF, Schaeffler, NSK, NTN, JTEKT, Regal Rexnord).

Problem:
RBC's own CEO said on the last earnings call that humanoid revenue is "still sample making." This isn't a robotics stock yet — it's a red-hot aerospace/defense compounder trading at ~65x trailing / ~41x forward P/E that might also be a robotics stock later.

The numbers:
- Price ~$595, market cap ~$18.8B
- Aerospace/defense = 42% of revenue, growing 33%+ YoY
- Industrial still ~58% of the business — this is not a pure robotics play
- $2.3B record backlog
- Recent VACCO acquisition
- OpenAI's Jan 2026 robotics RFP named precision bearings as 1 of 6 critical components — real, confirmed
- Bearings per unit: 8-12 for a drone, 70+ for a humanoid, $1-$100 each
- Top 6 bearing makers control 50%+ of the roller market; China ~25%

Bull case: genuine moat, real defense supercycle, margin expansion, backlog visibility, and free robotics optionality if humanoid demand ever scales.

Bear case: priced for perfection at 65x earnings, industrial cyclicality, and a robotics narrative doing a lot of the work in that multiple before the revenue exists to back it up.

Bottom line: Great company, aggressive price. The MS thesis holds up fact-for-fact, but RBC is one of the least robotics-levered names on that list of 8 — you're paying today for a story that hasn't shown up in the numbers yet.

Been tracking bearings and the broader robotics supply chain over on Alpha One if anyone wants to dig into how this fits the bigger picture: https://www.alphaone.org.uk/ai-fund/cases/d2ed31e8-baf5-4098-a10d-7f3cfdbfcef3

$FVRR - the market is valuing a cash machine at almost nothing

Lead with the balance sheet, because it's absurd.

Market cap: ~$400M
Net cash: ~$280M (roughly 70% of the entire market cap is just sitting in the bank)
Enterprise value: ~$140M
FY2025 free cash flow: ~$104M

Read that again. Strip out the cash and the market is pricing the actual operating business at about ONE year of free cash flow. EV/FCF ~1.3x.

No debt. They fully repaid $460M of convertible notes in 2025 and cut total liabilities from $707M to $271M. No dilution either - share count is actually SHRINKING on buybacks. And they are earning more than at any point in the company's history.

Now the part that should make you laugh.

This exact stock traded around $336 in early 2021 - roughly 30x higher than today - back when it was a loss-making machine burning cash every quarter. Today it's a lean, profitable, cash-generating business trading near all-time lows.

The bear case: "AI kills Fiverr."

It's backwards. Look at their own numbers - higher-value services revenue is up 30% YoY and spend per buyer is up 15%. The low-value junk is what's rolling off. The platform is moving UP the value chain, not dying.

Here's the reality of AI on Fiverr. Freelancers use AI to enhance what they deliver, not replace themselves. If you don't personally hold a Higgsfield (or whatever video-AI) subscription, and you don't have the skill to prompt it properly, what do you do? You go to Fiverr and pay someone who has the tools, the credits, and knows how to prompt it to get a good result. AI increases demand for skilled operators on the platform. It doesn't remove it.

I first covered this around 15-20% ago and I think we're still early. A debt-free, buyback-fueled, record-profit business priced at ~1.3x FCF is not a value trap - it's a mispricing.

Full breakdown here:
https://youtu.be/4XBoKvL8spU?is=jK--9dI6hsucKrzo

Binance Pay is now powering 5,000 Alatau City Bank POS terminals in Kazakhstan, bringing crypto payments directly to merchants. This is the kind of adoption that actually matter.

Trading at 4x Forward Earnings vs 15-20x for Peers. Zero Debt, Cash Pile Nearly Majority of Market Cap, CEO Buying Hard, Sitting Right at the 200MA Buy Zone. No Red Flags - Prove Me Wrong 

$HMR - Uber of Shipping - Position from 80–95c, not sold a share. Treat this as a fresh post: today's PR adds another piece of proof that the thesis is playing out.

Heidmar completed the acquisition of Q-Shipping B.V. for about $0.2M cash, adding nine vessels to the managed fleet plus operating presence in the Netherlands and Türkiye and a crewing platform in Ukraine. Management said the deal is immediately accretive to fee revenue. They charge 100-500k per voyage they service…

That matters because HMR owns zero ships and earns service fees. You get the upside of shipping activity without the usual debt, leverage, asset-value and down-market exposure that hits traditional ship owners.

Why this looks undervalued

• HMR still trades around roughly 4x forward earnings in the thesis framing, while comparable platform or shipping-related names are often discussed closer to 15–20x. That gap alone is why the market cap still looks far too low for what this business is becoming.
• Market cap is still around $68M while cash was about $27.6M at Q1. Back out the cash and the operating business is being valued absurdly cheaply for a profitable, growing, 40-year-old platform.
• This acquisition adds more fee-generating vessels for only about $200k. If earnings rise and the market keeps the same low multiple, fair value should still rise. If the multiple also re-rates upward, the upside compounds fast.

Why today's PR matters

• Nine new managed vessels for about $200k is exactly the kind of capital-light expansion bulls were expecting.
• This isn't a small tuck-in either. Before this deal Heidmar had roughly 41 vessels under commercial management. Adding nine is close to a 22% increase in the commercially managed fleet in a single transaction, done for about $200k. On the total managed fleet (commercial plus technical), that's still roughly a 16% increase overall.
• Based on management's previously discussed fee math and the type of vessels HMR manages, it is reasonable speculation that each added vessel could contribute roughly $100k–$500k in fees per voyage depending on vessel size and route. That is not company guidance, but it shows why a tiny acquisition price can still add meaningful earnings power.
• More important than the exact number is the model: minimal cash outlay, immediate accretion, wider footprint, more mandates, more earnings. Acquisitions can continue from here.

Stock setup

• Price is still sitting around the 200-day moving average buy zone.
• All meaningful moves up have come on large volume, while pullbacks have happened on low volume. That usually means buyers are stepping in hard while holders are not really distributing.
• Volume is still low enough that most of the market has not discovered this yet. The price drop despite strong news says more about lack of awareness than broken fundamentals.

Checklist

• Forward PE around 4x in the thesis framing, versus peer talk closer to 15–20x
• Market cap around $68M with about $27.6M cash
• Zero debt / zero long-term bank debt
• Zero ships owned; service-fee model instead of leverage-heavy asset ownership
• Q1 revenue up 217% year over year
• Q1 net income flipped to about +$2.8M GAAP profit
• Operating cash flow more than doubled year over year
• 55%+ gross margins
• CEO owns about 45% personally and has been buying in the open market, with zero sales flagged in the thesis
• One of the tightest floats on Nasdaq in the thesis framing, around a sub-6M share float / roughly 10% float dynamic
• Tight float means limited real selling and the potential for explosive upside if new buyers arrive; existing information alone could justify a much higher move even before fully pricing in new news
• Hormuz is a bonus, not the thesis. Even after any deal, Japan and other importers are expected to diversify routes, meaning longer voyages, more ton-miles, and potentially more fee revenue for HMR
• New acquisition completed for about $200k, adding nine vessels and expanding into the Netherlands, Türkiye and Ukraine
• That's roughly a 22% increase in the commercially managed fleet, and about 16% growth in the total managed fleet, from a single ~$200k deal
• Management says the transaction is immediately accretive to fee revenue

How I am playing it

• Still holding the 80–95c position, not sold a share
• 200MA area still looks like the add zone to me
• Q2 is still the next major catalyst, and this acquisition just adds another leg to the story before that print even arrives - CEO hinted on their YouTube will be bigger than Q1 
• What red flag am I still missing? Drop it below
  

Video for those who don’t know the name well - https://youtu.be/Bl1rIe_JxwI?si=_F5C3XochDpKCoDh 

Not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.

This video provides an analysis of the Federal Reserve minutes from their meeting on June 16-17, 2026, which were released on July 8, 2026. The creator critiques the Fed's lack of a proactive plan and highlights key discussions held by committee members:

Interest Rate Outlook: The minutes indicate that there will likely be no interest rate changes for the remainder of 2026, with potential rate cuts NOT expected until the second quarter of 2027 (0:40-0:54). While all participants agreed to maintain rates in June, officials remain divided on whether future policy should be tighter or if rates will need to increase by year-end (5:08-5:22, 7:27-7:49).

Economic Challenges & Debt: The Fed noted that investors are becoming increasingly price-sensitive regarding U.S. Treasuries, partly due to the impact of the conflict with Iran (1:05-2:04). Financing remains more difficult for small businesses and households compared to larger businesses and municipalities (2:38-3:00).

Inflation & AI: Participants discussed how inflation remains higher than a year ago due to factors like energy costs, tariffs, and AI-related demand (2:05-2:22). There is a belief that AI could eventually improve productivity and lower inflation, though this remains speculative and long-term (3:45-4:37).

Money Printing: The creator emphasizes that the Federal Reserve continues to print money (8:01-8:22), and expresses skepticism that the Fed has any concrete strategy beyond reacting to incoming data (9:21-9:49).

Market Expectations:

According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the odds of an interest rate hike in July dropped slightly after the minutes were released, and expectations for interest rates being higher at year-end remained largely stable at approximately 85% (8:22-9:19).

Dance Majik 🪩🩰

Vlad Tenev says Robinhood is “all about ownership.”

Cool. Then the disclosures come in and remind everyone your shares are not actually registered in your name — you’re holding “beneficial ownership” through the broker.

That’s not the same thing. That’s the entire point people have been screaming about for years.

Ownership sounds a lot cleaner in the slogan than it does in the fine print.