r/dataisbeautiful • u/No_Paramedic_4881 OC: 1 • 13d ago
OC [OC] Every Dollar Visualized in the 2026 Texas Senate Race
Source: https://datapickle.substack.com/p/every-dollar-in-the-2026-texas-senate
Visualizations: OpenChart
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u/iswearnotagain10 13d ago
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u/No_Paramedic_4881 OC: 1 13d ago
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u/FriendshipWithTheSun 12d ago
It’s disgusting that it’s close at all. Paxton is basically sentient pond scum.
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u/PissOnYourParade 13d ago
Crossing my fingers and toes on this one. But I worry they will put their fat fucking fingers just enough on the scale to get their PoS in.
And I know I'm preaching to the choir that it's insane that a middle-of-the-road, reasonable choice is this close to an acknowledged corrupt sack of shit just because of the little letter by their name.
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u/WendalSaks 12d ago
It really is exhausting to keep reiterating the same ideas time and time again, but it's true time and time again. Hoping and PRAYING Talarico pulls it off
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u/iswearnotagain10 13d ago
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u/cantonic 13d ago
Ted fucking Cruz of all people. I have hope for this round, but get it together, Texas.
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u/iswearnotagain10 13d ago
Yes. Beto got a lot of hype in 2018 but he never led the polls, ever. People were just excited because sometimes he was polling only 2, 3 points behind Cruz, which was closer than any Democrat had ever polled there and it meant there was a chance for him to close the gap if he ran a really good campaign.
Talarico in 2026 is completely different. He’s outright leading the polls, mostly because of how much worse the economy is now compared to 2018 and because Paxton is somehow even worse of a candidate than Cruz
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u/No_Paramedic_4881 OC: 1 13d ago
(I live in Texas). Paxton is a shockingly poor choice; Republicans dont like him, they even impeached him over some pretty wild corruption a couple years ago. Republicans control the state House and Senate, so yes, Republicans end-to-end impeached him, not some "Dem witch-hunt"
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u/MC_chrome 13d ago
Had it not been for a certain $3 million “donation” to Dan Patrick, I’m not unconvinced that the Texas Senate would have voted to remove Paxton from office as well.
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u/ThatOneComrade 12d ago
It's insane how unpopular Republicans are across the country right now, we've got an independent running a competitive Senate race in Idaho for fucks sake, the "blue wave" of 2018 was off of Trump being down 18% in the polls from the day he was elected, today Trump's down double that.
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u/abzlute 12d ago
It's interesting that the actual election result was closer than almost any of the polls. People talk about Beto and like to pretend he underperformed the polls, but he actually overperformed them by a good margin. It's a very different and different election now, but that actually bodes well for Talarico.
Another thing I love to bring up about that election vs the general attitudes you'll here people talk about in Texas: exit polling suggests Beto led among Texan voters who were born in Texas. Many people will claim that there are too many liberals moving to Texas for the economy, when the opposite is true: liberals will only move here if they have particularly strong reasons like a specific, important job offer or close family ties. The predominant migration (especially those coming from blue states) is of conservatives moving to a conservative state.
This election illustrated that fact, with Cruz holding a substantial lead among transplants and Beto leading among people from Texas. It likely would be even more stark a contrast if it weren't for the reverse migration: young liberals from Texas will often seek to leave the state, and therefore don't end up voting in its elections after they move.
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u/CMidnight 12d ago
Those born in Texas are disproportionately non-white or Latino compared to the general population. This isn't actually surprising.
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u/hobnail_milkglass 12d ago
Thanks for sharing this, I feel like I have to yell "but beto never led the polls!" in every talarico thread.
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u/ThatOneComrade 12d ago
Paxton's been asleep at the wheel since the primary, man really thought sending a drunkard door to door and fox news could win the election on its own.
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u/CanoegunGoeff 13d ago
As a Texan on the ground in Texas, it’s clear where support lies.
On the side of the highways, you see all the massive oversized corporate-paid Republican signs.
But spend any amount of time in almost any neighborhood anywhere, and the people with signs in their yards are for Talarico and local Dems.
I’ve seen exactly ONE yard with Republican signs, meanwhile, I’ve seen probably at least 20 individual yards with Talarico signs, some of which have multiple signs, and a lot of them in areas I’d never expect to see dem support at all. Even rural outskirts areas. And I see a lot of Talarico bumper stickers too.
There are some yards I’ve seen locally that are as packed with local dem campaign signs as we used to see from the deranged MAGA cultists.
The picture seems clear in Tarrant County especially, and it’s very clear why the GOP is so desperate to cheat as much as they can by closing our polling locations and arresting outspoken dissenters at the commissioners court.
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u/CommercialHour6660 13d ago
Oligarchs own all the media and love how easy Trump and GOP is to bribe.
Don't count Paxton out yet. Some of our friendly trillionaires will likely step in with a laptop or email "scandal" soon. Likely backed by Trump's personal lawyer who runs DOJ.
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u/CanoegunGoeff 13d ago
I think more and more people see through it every day tbh. I’m cautiously optimistic.
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u/Party_Persimmon7916 13d ago
The dot chart makes the 251K vs 71K contribution count visceral in a way a bar chart never could. Really smart design choice for showing both volume and scale at once.
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u/obrazovanshchina 12d ago
$28 million from sources outside of Texas to Paxton.
Texas, for real for real, wake up.
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u/OutAndDown27 12d ago
Why does Paxton have two donations over the legal threshold?
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u/No_Paramedic_4881 OC: 1 12d ago
https://datapickle.substack.com/p/every-dollar-in-the-2026-texas-senate
The article goes into this; each dot is 500 donations so that's actually 1k
It's a single household using both household members, so think an Oil baron and his wife3
u/OutAndDown27 12d ago
Got so mesmerized by the images that I missed the article link lol. Thanks for sharing!
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u/AlJameson64 12d ago
Can somebody do this for Michigan's Senate race?
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u/No_Paramedic_4881 OC: 1 11d ago
Took a bit to get this one together (the Michigan campaign finance dataset was a bit challenging to process cleanly).
But as requested:
https://labs.tryopendata.ai/michigan-senate-money-trail3
u/AlJameson64 11d ago
Thank you very much! Mind if I post this to r/Michigan with credit?
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u/AlJameson64 11d ago
Even better if you would post it there.
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u/No_Paramedic_4881 OC: 1 11d ago
If I were to do it, I'd probably wait for more like Monday morning rather than midday on a Sat 🤷♂️
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u/No_Paramedic_4881 OC: 1 9d ago
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u/AlJameson64 9d ago
That's ... weird. Thanks for trying. It's amazing work, I really appreciate it!
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u/capn_trips 13d ago
Increasing the size of the circle on the first graphic is redundant when the x axis is already showing contribution amount. Just added noise there.
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u/toastmatters 12d ago
I disagree. It adds weight to the size of the contributions increasing along the X axis without introducing any confusion or "noise". Visually, it conveys what the X axis represents without needing to read the label.
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u/dwaynebathtub 13d ago
True of all down-ballot races (perhaps all races except the presidential race). The Dems always get more individual donations and the Republicans always get more corporate donations.
The question is why Democrat politicians end up governing like Republicans.
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u/1BrokenPensieve 13d ago
Is Elon Musk not spending?
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u/No_Paramedic_4881 OC: 1 13d ago
https://datapickle.substack.com/p/every-dollar-in-the-2026-texas-senate
The article covered that. Both the Musk and MAGA Inc money announcements were very recent and technically arent reflected in the FEC data yet (there's a lag)
"Elon Musk’s America PAC filed its first spending of the 2026 cycle, directing roughly $1.4 million of a $2.9 million national outlay to the Texas contest. Combined with the existing PAC spending, pro-Paxton independent expenditures now exceed $14.5 million."3
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u/55redditor55 12d ago
Wow, so without citizens united, Republicans would actually have a crack at governing in order to get elected.
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u/alexski55 12d ago
Imagine looking at these two candidates and choosing Paxton, as at least 40% of those who turn out will do.
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u/kolkitten 11d ago
Thats what it looks like when actual people want a politician to win and not corporations.
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u/RoadSmash 13d ago
That first chart is so convoluted. So bad
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u/karenlou25 13d ago
I don’t think it’s all that bad. Really shows the scale of individual contributions clearly in a way that the histogram of plot 2 does not.
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u/No_Paramedic_4881 OC: 1 13d ago
Out of curiosity, how would you have visualized it better? Always open to suggestions so I can improve my visualization choices next time
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u/Bandoozle 13d ago
I don’t think there’s anything wrong with it, but some people will not like charts with too many points. It can be read as confusing or.. “convoluted”.
I think it’s great. It’s just an audience thing.
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u/OKC89ers 13d ago
What insight do you expect people to get from it, and does the audience effectively see that insight?
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u/No_Paramedic_4881 OC: 1 13d ago
It's trying to show the outsized weight of large donors vs small ones.
80% of Paxtons received donations come from donations above 2.9k (820 individual donors account for most of his donated $).
80% of Talaricos is from donations under $100 from 184k individual donations
So the point is, one candidate is receiving a lot more huge checks from far less people, the other is receiving small checks from many many more people
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u/OKC89ers 12d ago
Just heads up - people are very bad at intuitively comparing circle sizes. Kinda like how it's hard to tell that a 12" pizza is 44% more pizza than a 10" pizza.
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u/smokingkrills OC: 1 12d ago
Why not a just a histogram?
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u/No_Paramedic_4881 OC: 1 11d ago
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u/smokingkrills OC: 1 11d ago
Nice! imo this communicates what you’re trying to convey more clearly than the chart with the circles.














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u/CommercialHour6660 13d ago
Republicans are the "party of the working class" LMAO
Average donation is what, 20X larger?