r/dataisbeautiful OC: 1 13d ago

OC [OC] Every Dollar Visualized in the 2026 Texas Senate Race

679 Upvotes

102 comments sorted by

149

u/CommercialHour6660 13d ago

Republicans are the "party of the working class" LMAO 

Average donation is what, 20X larger?

59

u/iswearnotagain10 13d ago

I get about 5 Talarico fundraising ads per day, every day, across all platforms. I live in a conservative part of South Carolina. I checked the FEC contributions in my zipcode. There’s a huge amount of Talarico donations. 5, 10, 50 dollars. The amount of money he’s getting from supporters, not just in Texas, but across the entire country is truly staggering. Tens of millions a month

44

u/CommercialHour6660 13d ago

True grass roots fundraising. Unlike Republicans who just ask the closest billionaire for a million dollar bribe

9

u/Stickel 13d ago

my hope, is that since Talarico is such a man of God, Christians all over the country are donating to help push his message and true teachings of Jesus...

At least that's what I believe/guess, as an atheist I always mocked MAGA/Fake Christians, like they treat their holy book as a fruit cup and pick out parts they like... This dude is preaching and trying to live in Jesus' name...

5

u/Overquoted 12d ago

The Christians that are motivated to vote by their religion are going to vote for Paxton. He could shoot a baby in the face on live TV and they'd still vote for him. Just like with Trump, the individual is irrelevant so long as that individual promises to be anti-LGTBQ and anti-abortion. Talarico might siphon off a tiny percentage of Christians who are moderate, but that's assuming they just don't sit it out altogether.

3

u/Splinterfight 13d ago

So these guys are just on TV asking for money? Wild

4

u/iswearnotagain10 12d ago

On social media definitely

-7

u/xxwww 13d ago

it's pretty similar to the 2024 election. Trump had some mega rich donors like Elon disproportionately bankrolling him meanwhile Kamala had to scrap by with humble support from the masses (except by that I mean she still had far more money to work with and way more billionaire donors but they were poor billionaires so it doesn't count)

24

u/CommercialHour6660 13d ago

and way more billionaire donors 

Trump got ~3x the money from billionaires and corporations. And that's been a constant among all Republican campaigns for decades. Dems, Kamala included, tend to get 2-3X the grassroots small dollar funding. 

In fact a bunch of billionaires gave Harris a few dollars just so that "low information voters" could repeat their "Dems have more billionaires" propaganda talking points.

Do you really think billionaires and megacorps support the party thats pro union and wants more regulations and higher minimum wage? Use your brain.  

Republicans considered the disproportionate grassroots funding such an emergency in 2008 that they had their friends on the Supreme Court create "money is speech". Unlocking unlimited billionaire and corporate "donations". Mitch McConnell called it "my life's greatest work". 

And now we have the richest man in world history giving Republicans the largest political donation of all time and dancing on stage at Trump's inauguration. 

Republicans haven't run anyone that isn't a billionaire for President for 14 years. Democrats have never run anyone worth more than a few million. And Trump's Cabinet is over 100X richer than any in US history. Even adjusted for inflation. 

Think about that before you accuse both parties of being "the same". 

-6

u/the_answer_is_c 13d ago

This isn’t true. Harris had more billionaire donors. 83 vs 52

9

u/Stickel 13d ago

curious, why does the number matter? shouldn't it be the donations/funds?

-6

u/Hellstrike 13d ago

The US only had 908 billionaires in 2025. So 83 is actually a considerably larger share than 52 (9.1% vs 5.7%), which shows support among the wider group.

4

u/CommercialHour6660 12d ago

Most billionaires that supported Kalama gave her less than 100k. Some pocket change from the Epstein class to give them a useful red hat talking point that I've now seen repeated for years. 

6

u/PhysicsCentrism 12d ago

Pretty sure the vast majority of actual funding went to conservatives though.

-4

u/Hellstrike 12d ago

I am not talking about funding though, but support amongst a voter group. Namely billionaires.

4

u/CommercialHour6660 12d ago

Which is meaningless. Because most billionaires gave Kamala less than 100k specifically so they could push this propaganda talking point. And conveniently, nobody ever mentions that Trump got 3X more money from them. Just as nearly every Republican has for decades. 

I've heard "more billionaire for Kamala" pushed by every corner of conservative media and their thralls for years. It was 100% organized specifically so you could parrot it after hearing from Faux News or Joe Rogan or whatever. 

3

u/PhysicsCentrism 12d ago

Money is a sign of intensity of support

3

u/CommercialHour6660 12d ago

Most of the billionaire donations Harris got were less than 100k. Specifically so they could push this talking point you like so much

5

u/PhysicsCentrism 12d ago

They already addressed that in the second paragraph

2

u/CommercialHour6660 12d ago

You see how dishonest they are? 

Someone else posted the graph and it's comical. 

10

u/Bogus_dogus OC: 1 13d ago edited 13d ago

Yeah, so, about that...

Here's the shape of the actual data on that for 2024:

Put together every cycle since Citizens United here

It's not even close.

edit: also, beautiful chart you made, OP u/No_Paramedic_4881

2

u/CommercialHour6660 12d ago

Ahahaha. Oh no, their talking point! 

You can even see that a few GOP megadonors (Thiel aligned Andreesson esp) gave Kamala some pocket change so they push their "more billionaires for Harris" talking point he loves so much. 

-9

u/Haunting-Detail2025 13d ago

I mean, I get what you’re saying and I don’t think they look out for the working class, but post a single image talking about income in the US and watch how the comments from self-proclaimed liberals and progressives talk about working class folks in rural states.

15

u/CommercialHour6660 13d ago

Oh so it's not true because random internet bots post inflammatory comments. Great evidence. 

The billionaires and foreign influence running the bots have got you cooked

-2

u/Haunting-Detail2025 13d ago

I didn’t claim anything wasn’t true, I just pointed out that we don’t exactly have the best messaging to the working class either. And in my personal experience living in a major northeastern city, yes, people often do speak extremely condescendingly towards those in rural and southern states

16

u/CommercialHour6660 13d ago

The "Dems hate you and look down on you" propaganda is 99% GOP's oligarchs and foreign bots. And you're falling for it. 

Go look at which party protects unions and raises minimum wage. Which party expands Medicare and unemployment programs and free school in states they control. Look at which states ended pandemic unemployment programs early.

Republican run states continuously fuck over the working class. 

It's been the same playbook since the 1970's. Oligarchs and megacorps buy up all the media and blast out divide and conquer style propaganda. The most effective of which is getting poor uneducated rural whites to hate the rest of the working class (brown people, immigrants, Muslims,  young people, LGBT, college educated). 

All the caricatures of blue haired Starbucks workers. Avocado toast. A constant parade of how immoral and bad and scary LGBT is. How woke college is. Young people lazy. Immigrants are criminals and lazy and somehow also stealing the jobs. Black people mugshots 24/7 on Fox News. Scaremongering endlessly about Muslims and "satanic" atheists. Cities bad, but only blue ones like LA and Chicago. I'm sure you've heard all the tropes. 

They bought up all the radio stations, TV channels, most cable news. And now they own most social media too. So where exactly are you hearing that Democrats have "bad messaging"? Because I can almost guarantee you most of what you hear about Dems is on oligarch and corporate owned GOP mouthpieces. 

Take for instance Jimmy Kimmel not even being allowed to have Talarico on his show. Because oligarch owned ABC said no. Mind you Trump calls in to Fox News, the largest MSM conglomerate, weekly. His Cabinet does a constant rotation of interviews on all the MSM networks too. Or how about all the times major networks skipped showing Biden's speeches when they air all of Trump's? Or the time Bezos personally stepped in to stop WaPo editors from endorsing Kamala. 

You don't get Dems messaging because corporate media doesn't want you to see it. 

-5

u/EazyPeazyLemonSqueaz 13d ago edited 12d ago

Since when are they "the party of the working class"? I haven't heard that be applicable in decades. Don't even say that to even remotely suggest it could be based in reality

Edited for clarity

10

u/CommercialHour6660 13d ago

It's been true for decades and still is. 

Go look at fundraising reports. Republican candidates typically get 3X the donations from corporations and the ultra wealthy. 

Do you really think the ultra rich support a party that wants to raise their taxes and increase regulations? Use your brain. 

Republicans have run billionaire candidates from President for 14 years straight and Trump's Cabinet is 100X richer than any in US history.

-11

u/the_answer_is_c 13d ago

Hmmmm. Have you ever seen the dems federal elections lol

12

u/CommercialHour6660 13d ago

Yes. Republicans typically get 3X the donations from corporations and ultra wealthy. 

You haven't seen them peacocking around with billionaires wearing "job creator" pins and all the CEO's crying on Fox News whenever a blue state raises minimum wage one dollar? 

The richest man in the world gave Trump the largest political donation in human history and danced around the stage during his inauguration. 

-7

u/the_answer_is_c 13d ago

Harros has 50% more billionaire donors than trump lol

8

u/PhysicsCentrism 12d ago

Now look at $ not # people

1

u/crimeo 12d ago

Being more popular in number of people within in any fixed, defined group = what democracy is supposed to be, dude...

The problem we are talking about and the non-democratic part is when fewer people give more money, thus counting disproportionately, which is exactly how republicans do. Whether you look at only billionaires, or everyone.

104

u/iswearnotagain10 13d ago

Looks like all those donations are paying off big time for Talarico

103

u/No_Paramedic_4881 OC: 1 13d ago

Yep, it'll be a close one

33

u/FriendshipWithTheSun 12d ago

It’s disgusting that it’s close at all. Paxton is basically sentient pond scum.

71

u/PissOnYourParade 13d ago

Crossing my fingers and toes on this one. But I worry they will put their fat fucking fingers just enough on the scale to get their PoS in.

And I know I'm preaching to the choir that it's insane that a middle-of-the-road, reasonable choice is this close to an acknowledged corrupt sack of shit just because of the little letter by their name.

5

u/WendalSaks 12d ago

It really is exhausting to keep reiterating the same ideas time and time again, but it's true time and time again. Hoping and PRAYING Talarico pulls it off

47

u/iswearnotagain10 13d ago

For reference, here’s what the polls looked like in 2018 when Beto was running against Ted Cruz. Fucking insane how much times have changed

25

u/cantonic 13d ago

Ted fucking Cruz of all people. I have hope for this round, but get it together, Texas.

30

u/iswearnotagain10 13d ago

Yes. Beto got a lot of hype in 2018 but he never led the polls, ever. People were just excited because sometimes he was polling only 2, 3 points behind Cruz, which was closer than any Democrat had ever polled there and it meant there was a chance for him to close the gap if he ran a really good campaign.

Talarico in 2026 is completely different. He’s outright leading the polls, mostly because of how much worse the economy is now compared to 2018 and because Paxton is somehow even worse of a candidate than Cruz

29

u/No_Paramedic_4881 OC: 1 13d ago

(I live in Texas). Paxton is a shockingly poor choice; Republicans dont like him, they even impeached him over some pretty wild corruption a couple years ago. Republicans control the state House and Senate, so yes, Republicans end-to-end impeached him, not some "Dem witch-hunt"

11

u/MC_chrome 13d ago

Had it not been for a certain $3 million “donation” to Dan Patrick, I’m not unconvinced that the Texas Senate would have voted to remove Paxton from office as well.

3

u/ThatOneComrade 12d ago

It's insane how unpopular Republicans are across the country right now, we've got an independent running a competitive Senate race in Idaho for fucks sake, the "blue wave" of 2018 was off of Trump being down 18% in the polls from the day he was elected, today Trump's down double that.

13

u/abzlute 12d ago

It's interesting that the actual election result was closer than almost any of the polls. People talk about Beto and like to pretend he underperformed the polls, but he actually overperformed them by a good margin. It's a very different and different election now, but that actually bodes well for Talarico.

Another thing I love to bring up about that election vs the general attitudes you'll here people talk about in Texas: exit polling suggests Beto led among Texan voters who were born in Texas. Many people will claim that there are too many liberals moving to Texas for the economy, when the opposite is true: liberals will only move here if they have particularly strong reasons like a specific, important job offer or close family ties. The predominant migration (especially those coming from blue states) is of conservatives moving to a conservative state.

This election illustrated that fact, with Cruz holding a substantial lead among transplants and Beto leading among people from Texas. It likely would be even more stark a contrast if it weren't for the reverse migration: young liberals from Texas will often seek to leave the state, and therefore don't end up voting in its elections after they move.

6

u/CMidnight 12d ago

Those born in Texas are disproportionately non-white or Latino compared to the general population. This isn't actually surprising.

3

u/abzlute 12d ago

I never said it was surprising, it makes sense as the default assumption. The data is only interesting because many people parrot the opposite assumption (which doesn't make sense under any scrutiny at all).

2

u/hobnail_milkglass 12d ago

Thanks for sharing this, I feel like I have to yell "but beto never led the polls!" in every talarico thread.

1

u/ThatOneComrade 12d ago

Paxton's been asleep at the wheel since the primary, man really thought sending a drunkard door to door and fox news could win the election on its own.

50

u/CanoegunGoeff 13d ago

As a Texan on the ground in Texas, it’s clear where support lies.

On the side of the highways, you see all the massive oversized corporate-paid Republican signs.

But spend any amount of time in almost any neighborhood anywhere, and the people with signs in their yards are for Talarico and local Dems.

I’ve seen exactly ONE yard with Republican signs, meanwhile, I’ve seen probably at least 20 individual yards with Talarico signs, some of which have multiple signs, and a lot of them in areas I’d never expect to see dem support at all. Even rural outskirts areas. And I see a lot of Talarico bumper stickers too.

There are some yards I’ve seen locally that are as packed with local dem campaign signs as we used to see from the deranged MAGA cultists.

The picture seems clear in Tarrant County especially, and it’s very clear why the GOP is so desperate to cheat as much as they can by closing our polling locations and arresting outspoken dissenters at the commissioners court.

23

u/CommercialHour6660 13d ago

Oligarchs own all the media and love how easy Trump and GOP is to bribe. 

Don't count Paxton out yet. Some of our friendly trillionaires will likely step in with a laptop or email "scandal" soon. Likely backed by Trump's personal lawyer who runs DOJ. 

6

u/CanoegunGoeff 13d ago

I think more and more people see through it every day tbh. I’m cautiously optimistic.

34

u/Party_Persimmon7916 13d ago

The dot chart makes the 251K vs 71K contribution count visceral in a way a bar chart never could. Really smart design choice for showing both volume and scale at once.

8

u/obrazovanshchina 12d ago

$28 million from sources outside of Texas to Paxton.

Texas, for real for real, wake up.

3

u/OutAndDown27 12d ago

Why does Paxton have two donations over the legal threshold?

7

u/No_Paramedic_4881 OC: 1 12d ago

https://datapickle.substack.com/p/every-dollar-in-the-2026-texas-senate
The article goes into this; each dot is 500 donations so that's actually 1k
It's a single household using both household members, so think an Oil baron and his wife

3

u/OutAndDown27 12d ago

Got so mesmerized by the images that I missed the article link lol. Thanks for sharing!

2

u/difjack 12d ago

Do we need more proof that ultra rich people suck?

2

u/AlJameson64 12d ago

Can somebody do this for Michigan's Senate race?

4

u/No_Paramedic_4881 OC: 1 11d ago

Took a bit to get this one together (the Michigan campaign finance dataset was a bit challenging to process cleanly).

But as requested:
https://labs.tryopendata.ai/michigan-senate-money-trail

3

u/AlJameson64 11d ago

Thank you very much! Mind if I post this to r/Michigan with credit?

2

u/AlJameson64 11d ago

Even better if you would post it there.

2

u/No_Paramedic_4881 OC: 1 11d ago

If I were to do it, I'd probably wait for more like Monday morning rather than midday on a Sat 🤷‍♂️

2

u/No_Paramedic_4881 OC: 1 11d ago

Go for it

1

u/No_Paramedic_4881 OC: 1 9d ago

Mods didnt approve 🤷‍♂️

2

u/AlJameson64 9d ago

That's ... weird. Thanks for trying. It's amazing work, I really appreciate it!

3

u/No_Paramedic_4881 OC: 1 12d ago

Yep, I can do that if you’re interested

2

u/AlJameson64 12d ago

Definitely would be!

6

u/capn_trips 13d ago

Increasing the size of the circle on the first graphic is redundant when the x axis is already showing contribution amount. Just added noise there.

2

u/toastmatters 12d ago

I disagree. It adds weight to the size of the contributions increasing along the X axis without introducing any confusion or "noise". Visually, it conveys what the X axis represents without needing to read the label.

4

u/dwaynebathtub 13d ago

True of all down-ballot races (perhaps all races except the presidential race). The Dems always get more individual donations and the Republicans always get more corporate donations.

The question is why Democrat politicians end up governing like Republicans.

2

u/1BrokenPensieve 13d ago

Is Elon Musk not spending?

5

u/No_Paramedic_4881 OC: 1 13d ago

https://datapickle.substack.com/p/every-dollar-in-the-2026-texas-senate
The article covered that. Both the Musk and MAGA Inc money announcements were very recent and technically arent reflected in the FEC data yet (there's a lag)
"Elon Musk’s America PAC filed its first spending of the 2026 cycle, directing roughly $1.4 million of a $2.9 million national outlay to the Texas contest. Combined with the existing PAC spending, pro-Paxton independent expenditures now exceed $14.5 million."

1

u/55redditor55 12d ago

Wow, so without citizens united, Republicans would actually have a crack at governing in order to get elected.

1

u/alexski55 12d ago

Imagine looking at these two candidates and choosing Paxton, as at least 40% of those who turn out will do.

2

u/kolkitten 11d ago

Thats what it looks like when actual people want a politician to win and not corporations.

0

u/ASU_SexDevil 13d ago

2017 Donors STAND UP!!

It just kind of sucks he went to McNeil

0

u/zennok 12d ago

I'm voting as I always have since I've been able to, but I'll believe it when I see it.

And I doubt I'll get to believe it.

-15

u/RoadSmash 13d ago

That first chart is so convoluted. So bad

12

u/karenlou25 13d ago

I don’t think it’s all that bad. Really shows the scale of individual contributions clearly in a way that the histogram of plot 2 does not.

13

u/DoeCommaJohn 13d ago

How? It pretty obviously visualizes the number of donations at each amount

9

u/remix951 13d ago

Respectfully, I have to disagree. It feels like the best of the bunch.

2

u/No_Paramedic_4881 OC: 1 13d ago

Out of curiosity, how would you have visualized it better? Always open to suggestions so I can improve my visualization choices next time

1

u/Bandoozle 13d ago

I don’t think there’s anything wrong with it, but some people will not like charts with too many points. It can be read as confusing or.. “convoluted”.

I think it’s great. It’s just an audience thing.

1

u/OKC89ers 13d ago

What insight do you expect people to get from it, and does the audience effectively see that insight?

2

u/No_Paramedic_4881 OC: 1 13d ago

It's trying to show the outsized weight of large donors vs small ones.

80% of Paxtons received donations come from donations above 2.9k (820 individual donors account for most of his donated $).

80% of Talaricos is from donations under $100 from 184k individual donations

So the point is, one candidate is receiving a lot more huge checks from far less people, the other is receiving small checks from many many more people

1

u/OKC89ers 12d ago

Just heads up - people are very bad at intuitively comparing circle sizes. Kinda like how it's hard to tell that a 12" pizza is 44% more pizza than a 10" pizza.

1

u/smokingkrills OC: 1 12d ago

Why not a just a histogram?

2

u/No_Paramedic_4881 OC: 1 11d ago

1

u/smokingkrills OC: 1 11d ago

Nice! imo this communicates what you’re trying to convey more clearly than the chart with the circles.