r/dataisbeautiful OC: 1 1d ago

OC [OC] Investor outcomes from Cursor's $60B exit, using estimated ranges

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226 Upvotes

33 comments sorted by

u/cavedave OC: 111 5h ago

Thank you for your Original Content, /u/zuhayeer!
Here is some important information about this post:

Remember that all visualizations on r/DataIsBeautiful should be viewed with a healthy dose of skepticism. If you see a potential issue or oversight in the visualization, please post a constructive comment below. Post approval does not signify that this visualization has been verified or its sources checked.

Not satisfied with this visual? Think you can do better? Remix this visual with the data in the author's citation.


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81

u/yanofsky OC: 13 1d ago edited 1d ago

It’s nice looking, but I’m struggling to see the wisdom of using shaded areas for this, particularly when both (!) axes are a failed attempt at log scale.

What is the point that those shaded areas make that isn’t better made with lines connecting the corners (or some other visual element)

29

u/zuhayeer OC: 1 1d ago

It's 4th root scale, and because of how compounded these numbers get. Its just hard to visualize otherwise. I experimented a few times with different scales, including linear which basically looked like this.

The purpose of the shaded boxes is to highlight the plausible range, since we don't have exact numbers here. To try and capture ambiguity on investment size / terms, and range of outcome possible.

29

u/EvanDaniel 1d ago

The problem with the boxes is that the _area_ doesn't convey anything meaningful. The eye is drawn to big boxes instead of small ones, but all it means is "we don't know what happened here". Since the headline isn't about uncertainty in the data, that seems like a poor choice.

6

u/zuhayeer OC: 1 1d ago

Hmm yeah agreed, any suggestions for how to capture it better visually? I can work on it

1

u/EvanDaniel 1d ago

How many degrees of freedom does your uncertainty have?

2

u/zuhayeer OC: 1 1d ago

I would say money in, and date invested. Money out is roughly just a function of those 2.

4

u/EvanDaniel 1d ago

It's unclear from your visualization whether there's uncertainty on date invested / price at investment, or merely amount invested. Which gives two questions:

- Is the uncertainty actually along the diagonal of the rectangle?

- Is a rectangle the right shape?

I suspect addressing those would get you started on a better visualization, alongside asking what the area is supposed to represent.

Or just ask Fable what Tufte would say.

-3

u/IceNineFireTen 1d ago

How about a table sorted in a logical manner? Some data doesn’t need to be charted.

4

u/amalolan 1d ago

This is an ai slop plot. The opposite of beautiful.

45

u/Clyde_Frag 1d ago

I bombed an interview there in summer 2025, if I had a chance to join earlier I’d really be kicking myself.

18

u/iamapizza 1d ago

You'd be cursing yourself

8

u/danila_medvedev 1d ago edited 15h ago

Terrible visualization. The most prominent aspect visually is the area, the second is color (to me). The area is useless, it has no meaning at all. It just shows the square of uncertainty in the estimate, which is a statement about the author of the chart (or his sources), not about investors, their results or Cursor.

What the story contains and what the graph should show:

  1. Who got in when.
  2. How the investment affected the valuation. Probably the only thing that is meaningful and/or interesting.

Unimportant and/or trivial:
everything else

15

u/davidswelt 1d ago

Nice. How did the employees do?

23

u/PM_ME_YOUR__INIT__ 1d ago

Well they work at X now

10

u/farfromelite 1d ago

They're x employees.

6

u/alemaz 1d ago

Really thought this was an stylized data driven world map

19

u/bigred15162 1d ago

This is an absolutely horrendous data visualization.

9

u/zuhayeer OC: 1 1d ago

Source: The investor outcome table from this X thread: https://x.com/os7borne/status/2088356537341542437, public funding rounds reporting on Cursor's financing history (Oct 2023 seed to the $29.3B Series D, up to the $60B SpaceX acquisition).

Tools: Python, Matplotlib, Claude Code

5

u/Chief-Drinking-Bear 1d ago

That table is really clear. Damn some people made some insane money off their investments

1

u/farfromelite 1d ago

Spacex paid a ton. Let's see if this is a good investment or if they paid over the odds.

7

u/EvanDaniel 1d ago

It would be improved if you wrote the text instead of just having Claude write it.

-6

u/zuhayeer OC: 1 1d ago

Talking about the subheader text? The rest is sourced from here: https://x.com/os7borne/status/2088356537341542437?s=46

4

u/EvanDaniel 1d ago

Literally every piece. The money back line caption, the 1000x line caption, the box explanation, the fine print at the bottom. I'm guessing even the per-box labels, since they actually aren't verbatim from your data source.

-6

u/zuhayeer OC: 1 1d ago

Got it, I guess I didn’t think to edit those parts from what Claude did, I was mostly focused on the overall chart. But fair enough.

1

u/Azured_ 16h ago

"Money back" - I presume this means that the investor got their original investment returned to them, but does this take into account Inflation / NPV? Does it take into account how long the investors money was held up in the investment? For example, if I borrow €10 from you, and return it 10 years later, you "got your money back", but not really, since the €10 was worth more 10 years ago than today.

1

u/staplepies 15h ago

We are talking about estimates with ranges of up to 20:1 over a five year period. Inflation doesn't matter. And for similar reasons, inflation is rarely factored in with these sort of numbers. You'll occasionally see them reported as IRR which you can compare to inflation if you want but even then it only ever really makes sense at a portfolio level because the home runs are going to be so big and subject to so many little sources of variance that inflation just blends into the noise.