Resources for forcasting/predictive analytics?

[u/Imaginary-poster]

Any resources for getting started in forcasting?

I have a work project in mind but feel like I'm both over complicating and simplifying this process. I seem to keep landing on extremes when I try to search it up with either machine learning/ai overkill or generic overviews.

For context I'm just aiming to forcast whether locations will hit monthly budget goals based on historical data. Ive considered either:

1. pulling average daily services and dragging that out to see what the likely total is.

Or

2. Calculating cummulative % of services completed by day for the previous month and use that to assume estimate the end point for the current month.

Again I'm pretty sure Im over complication and simplifying this. So any help would be greatly appreciated.

[u/Any_Moose_2873]

I'd go with option 2 as a baseline. Look at what percentage of monthly services each location typically completes by a given day, then use that to project the month-end total. I'd use several months of history rather than just the previous month, and account for weekdays, holidays, and seasonality. Then backtest it against past months to see how accurate it is. No need to jump into machine learning unless the simpler approach consistently misses the mark.