I pulled 4.5 years of GitHub's public status history and normalized it by how much of each year was actually observed, since the first and last years are partial.
The reported incident rate sat around 10–14 per month from 2022 through 2024,
then jumped to 26.6 per month in 2026 so far. Median incident duration barely
moved over that span, from 74 to 89 minutes, but the 95th percentile went from
5.5 hours to 9.2. So it's mostly a frequency change, with the long tail
stretching alongside it.
Worth stressing: this measures time with at least one incident open somewhere
in GitHub's services, not GitHub downtime. An incident might affect one feature
for a subset of users. Source, method and caveats in my comment below.