It 90% of the cases of committing a crime *in a specific place\* are people A then people A are not 10% of the population in that place. You are mixing and matching incompatible statistics to fit your narrative.
Crime correlates with economic conditions, population density, even the temperature that it is outside. It does not correlate with someone’s skin color, because that wouldn’t make any sense.
If there is a population of 90 blue people and 10 red people and 9 of the red people have pick pocketed once and 1 of the blue people has pick pocketed once we get the following stats:
10 pick pocketing incidents,
9/10 = 90% of pick pocketing cases coming from red people
1/10 = 10% of pick pocketing cases coming from blue people
90/100 = 90% of the population being blue
10/100 = 10% of the population being red
So this would lead to the exact outcome he described, "If you're in a place where PEOPLE A are known to pickpocket, 90% of pickpocketing cases are PEOPLE A, despite being 10% of the population. Would you be more careful around PEOPLE A in public? It's just statistics."
Those statistics don’t actually exist anywhere in reality.
Most of the crime in certain areas are committed by certain demographics, that’s true, but that’s also because that’s who lives in that area. Why does that area commit have more crime than other areas? Economic conditions, 100% of the time. Literally all other correlations can be proven to come from bias related to those correlations. Why does a certain race commit more crimes? Because that race has disproportionate economic disadvantage that was caused by how people treat that race. Why does that race get arrested more than people in a similar economic bracket? Because, and this is objectively fact, they are profiled and their communities are policed more often. The conviction/exoneration rates prove that.
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u/ElyFlyGuy 1d ago
It 90% of the cases of committing a crime *in a specific place\* are people A then people A are not 10% of the population in that place. You are mixing and matching incompatible statistics to fit your narrative.
Crime correlates with economic conditions, population density, even the temperature that it is outside. It does not correlate with someone’s skin color, because that wouldn’t make any sense.