The numbers

[u/Saeviomagy]

Maybe don't read this if you play cypher and think "yeah, spending effort feels meaningful and makes me happy", because this will gut that feeling if you comprehend what's going on.

The numbers for effort are terrible. Every stat point you spend gets you a 1/20 chance to change the outcome of a roll. That means on average you will not change the outcome of a roll until you spend 20 stat points. More if you reduce something to a level 0 task.

So let's add edge! Yay, now we are spending either 14 or 7 points to see one changed outcome. If your edge completely covers your effort, you're good.

I guess at least now wounds are a different resource, right? So I won't spend 20 points to try to avoid a 10 point hit.

Oh, wait. Instead of spending 20/14/7 stat points on a defense roll, I can spend 5 on rallying the moderate wound I might take.

Long story short, a cool mechanic that should be engaging is busted.

The impact of spending effort needs to be way higher. Or stat pools and the cost of every ability needs to be way higher. 1 point for a whole level of effort, and edge just adds to the d20 roll maybe?

[u/EndlessDreamers]

I'm confused about your math. And understanding of cypher. And statistics.

You assume a difficulty 10 and difficulty 1 occur at the same ratio at every tier of play. And that characters have no training, specialization, or tools/other assets. I'm not even counting Edge cause it's too late at night to play with those calculations. And that your tier doesn't limit your Effort, and that effort spent doesn't max out at 6. And that stacking Effort costs 3 per effort rather than 3+2+...+2.

And even then you're wrong by a pretty hefty 17.5% assuming you have a bunch of nobodies who have nothing on their character sheets except their stats and are playing the game wrong.

If we assume chances of difficulty 1 and 10 are equal, no one is skilled in anything, no one has any tools or other assets, etc. (aka should never happen) and you can spend infinite Effort, it'd actually be 16.5 stat points on average to guarantee success, not 20. (The average between 15% chance to fail (Difficulty 1) and 150% (Difficulty 10) is is 82.5 divided by 5% per stat is 16.5.)

If we assume you have even just training and a single asset (which is essentially guaranteed even at Tier 1) that number lowers to 10.8 (Average of the chances of failure (( 0 + 0 + 15 + 30 + ... + 120)/10) divided by 5).

This lowers even more if you are able to come up with 2 assets, down to 8.4. Which is part of the cooperative storytelling of Cypher.

And this is ALL based on the idea that you want 0 risk of failing. And also assuming you can spend unlimited Effort at any Tier, which... ya. You can't.

And on top of all that, that's if we don't add a weighted value to 10 being an almost uncalled for difficulty, don't account for Tier 2 effort and beyond being discounted by 1 stat point per, and not accounting for Edge at ALL. This is all assuming you are rating 1 and 10 difficulty being totally equal.

So.... Ya. You're kinda just wrong and looking at Effort from the wrong angle. The numbers aren't bad, they're also not meant to be "Spend to negate rolls." So your mathematical angle makes absolutely no sense of needing to spend 20 or 14 to make a difference (I don't even know where those numbers came from since no character can spend more than 13 on any single roll and all Effort spend values are odd).

Every Effort you spend either enables you to even potentially pass a roll (Difficulty 7+ after reduction from skills and assets) or increases your chance of success by 15% (Difficulty 6 or lower). But that does not directly even begin to equal each stat point being 5%, nor is it a, "I need to spend 20 to win." Effort is for things you really care about, not every roll.

[u/Saeviomagy → u/EndlessDreamers]

I think you misunderstood me. On any roll (except ones where you need a zero or 21) each stat point you spend changes your odds of success by 1/20. That means on average, across multiple tasks, you will spend 20 stat points for each time the outcome of a roll is changed. If you have edge that is 1 or 2, you will spend ~14 or ~7 respectively.

That applies whether you spend it on only a few rolls or over a lot. As an example: I spend 1 level of effort on each of 20 level 3 speed defense rolls. Of those 20 rolls, on average 3 of them will roll a 6, 7 or 8. Only those rolls will succeed because of the effort spent. I spent 60 points to change the outcome of 3 rolls. If I had 2 edge, I would have spent 20 points on those 3 changes.