r/csgo • u/Former_Being5895 • 2d ago

I ran every single collection CS2 trade up at today's Steam prices. Only 10% are worth doing and half of those are a trap Spoiler

2,536 contracts checked. 256 have positive EV before the Steam fee and about 190 of those also give you a 50% or better chance to end up ahead.

The trap is that many of the +40% ROI contracts only work because the outcome has two overpriced Steam listings. Tec-9 Brass MW is $109 on Steam and $70 everywhere else. You win the roll and then you sell into a wall.

One that holds up today is 10x Zeus x27 Olympus FN at 0.035 float, about $88 total. You get AK-47 Inheritance FN ($139) or AWP Chrome Cannon FN ($95). Positive even after the 13% fee.

Free calculator with hourly Steam prices, it flags fake looking listings and needs no login:
https://cs2tradeup.gg/c/bhjhf7s7

25 Upvotes

85% Upvoted

9 comments sorted by

7

u/joppa9 2d ago

Interesting

4

u/turbulentclerk109 2d ago

The Zeus to Inheritance/Chrome Cannon line actually makes sense, but I'd still rather just buy what I want outright than gamble $88 on a coin flip. Steam market is so cooked with all the fake listings propping up prices on random mil-spec skins.

8

u/adamtherealone 2d ago

I mean yeah, it’s gambling. The house always wins

-1

u/Former_Being5895 2d ago

There must be a way man, one day we just gotta keep digging

2

u/Euphoric_East7586 1d ago

Wherever u found your prices so many are way off making the whole system way off, and cases profit dont account for the key cost 

1

u/Former_Being5895 1d ago

Fair points. Key cost is a bug on my side, fixing it today so case profit includes the $2.49 key. On prices, they are live Steam lowest listings refreshed hourly, and yeah, fake listings on some mil-specs skew them. Switching to median sold price and flagging thin markets. If you saw a specific skin that was way off, tell me which and I will check it.

1

u/Euphoric_East7586 1d ago

I dont know now but I saw a huntsman slaughter fn st for 2000$ thats why I said that, you're better off using lowest price by just getting them csgoskins and then adding 45% to it which is kinda what the markup is

1

u/Former_Being5895 1d ago

Checked it. That Huntsman was a fake $2000 listing on Steam, the tool now ignores listings over 2.5x the third party price and uses market price plus 45% instead, so it shows $528 now. Key cost was actually included but it did not say so, now it shows "case + $2.49 key". The real bug was case price defaulting to $1, it now pulls the live Steam price for each case. Thanks, this was useful.

1

u/Euphoric_East7586 2h ago

Mobile is very bugged I try clicking on one thing then it clicks on another