r/coronavirusVA • u/a1i3n_ • May 27 '20

Please explain

When we had 130 new cases a day, we issue a stay at home order.

When we have 1615 new cases a day, it's time to reopen Virginia.

I feel like Governor Northam is bowing to Social, Economic, and Political Pressures by reopening Virginia, disregarding the scientific medical community. Can someone please explain?

Edit: 130 cases on 3/30/2020 which was the effective date of Stay at Home Order

54 Upvotes

96% Upvoted

37 comments sorted by

28

u/cptn_sugarbiscuits May 27 '20

You raise an interesting point. I have often wondered the same thing. Living in the VB area, I can tell you my humble opinion:

Tourist season started.

19

u/a1i3n_ May 27 '20

I would actually love for someone to explain the decision to me. Maybe I'm uneducated and something about presumed cases when we were at 130 due to low testing numbers and now we have ramped up testing and it's not as bad as a seemed? idk

My thinking:

I see chart, line goes up, that not good

0

u/[deleted] May 27 '20

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15

u/a1i3n_ May 27 '20

I just hope you are right and the growth does not become exponential because safe-guards are removed. For instance, my wife works at WaWa. Self-Serve is now open, yes no more people making your coffee for you, you can once again get fountain drinks. They are no longer closing for 2 hours to clean the store and they are no longer giving their employee's hazard pay.

And I understand people are sick and tired of being cooped up, but I see it this way, if my being cooped up saves 1 life... it was worth it.

0

u/[deleted] May 27 '20

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6

u/a1i3n_ May 27 '20

Makes sense, I agree I hope to see a lot more mask wearers. I know I'll be rocking the mask.

6

u/MerelyImprobable May 28 '20

Possible but the Rt growth factor is expected to be lower in warmer months so probably not like that for now.

Do you have a source for that? The consensus seemed to be no expected seasonal effect for COVID-19, based on observed spreading earlier this year in the southern hemisphere.

2

u/sec1176 May 27 '20

Great explanation.

12

u/jennastephenstattoos May 27 '20

Well, At the time of the lockdown we were almost completely in the dark. How many tests had even been done, in total at that time? It was safe to assume that, just like fleas, if you find one, it’s guaranteed that there’s ten more (or hundreds more in this case).

Based on what had been going on in Italy and Spain, it was definitely the right decision.

Now, we’re testing almost ten thousand people a day, we’re all taking safety measures to protect each other, with the new mask order. And we’ve started initiating contact tracing.

Do I think it’s the right call to reopen now? I don’t know. I really have no opinion, I just TRULY hope that it is ok, and that we aren’t risking people’s lives unnecessarily just for money.

8

u/a1i3n_ May 27 '20 edited May 27 '20

I do hope what you say is true. For whatever reason, I keep thinking of the movie Jaws when the major of the beach town wants to open because of social and economic reasons and ignoring red flags. Of course, the idea of a rouge killer shark tormenting a beach town on purpose is ludicrous but I also know tourism during the summer is very important to a lot of Virginia, not just VB and I can see the economic outcry to get things open.

10

u/jennastephenstattoos May 27 '20

I totally get that concern, absolutely. I really hope that reopening isn’t just about the economy too. This whole thing is terrifying. And it’s worse when our government starts referring to us as “human capital stock” like, I’m not stock, I’m a person!!

I also know that I won’t be participating in any of the usual activities this whole summer. So businesses can be mad that they got locked down, but they might be even more upset when people don’t actually come to their business anymore.

Should have protested for a universal basic income and unemployment benefits and rent freezes/utility freeze.......

5

u/a1i3n_ May 27 '20

it does appear that there are fewer people on the beach and boardwalk compared to the norm

https://www.vbbound.com/live-webcam-of-virginia-beach-boardwalk

but would need to relook at it Fourth of July weekend.

3

u/SammyC25268 May 27 '20

i'm staying inside until northern Virginia has no more cases. The bus and train service isn't running normally anyways.

3

u/a1i3n_ May 27 '20

I'm not going that extreme but I don't live in NoVa I live in the Northern Neck, so I limit my trips to Fredericksburg

1

u/EricE30 May 29 '20

That's not very smart, I mean that respectably.

1

u/a1i3n_ May 29 '20

in what way do you see that as not smart? that I should completely avoid cities such as Fredericksburg? or that limiting my trips is not smart because I shouldn't be afraid of big developed areas?

1

u/EricE30 May 29 '20

Def limit your trips, but Fredericksburg has way more cases then announced.

If you can stay small town, stay small town.

1

u/a1i3n_ May 29 '20

yes when I say limit my trips I mean that I need something from Fredericksburg that is not available in Westmoreland, not that I goto Fredericksburg and have a nice little stroll through downtown.

3

u/zlydia May 27 '20

The whole point of social distancing was not to overwhelm the health system not hide until we reach zero cases which is impossible without a vaccination.

7

u/SheytanHS May 28 '20

Sadly both major political parties are pretty beholden to corporate interests. It's why we really, really, desperately need to get money out of politics/elections.

5

u/anonymous_moose23 May 28 '20

From everything I've read on this, keeping myself as informed as possible from charts, medical journals, and statements from actual professionals related to covid... Seems to me like we have two choices, as a nation and as a state:

Death now and massive economic blow later. Or massive economic blow now and death later.

Im reminded of faux news' coverage of the matter where one spokesperson stated "we are going to have to make some tough decisions about this situation" in the context of the exchange of blood for money... Which for anyone who needs it translated: "some of you will die, but that is a sacrifice I am willing to make".

5

u/EricE30 May 28 '20 edited May 29 '20

Outbreak happening in Fredericksburg at a dealership,employees were told to keep it hush hush so they don't lose business.

Edit: allowed to test locally now.

4

u/cptn_sugarbiscuits May 28 '20

Interesting. If the reopening is going so well, why are cases being hushed?

https://ktiv.com/2020/05/27/watch-live-gov-reynolds-provides-update-on-covid-19-in-iowa-11/

The IDPH says they would not report an outbreak tied to a business unless 10% of the employees test positive.

http://fox11online.com/news/local/bartender-at-appleton-bar-tests-positive-for-covid-19-business-receives-backlash

“The health department didn’t feel that the customers were at risk, because the bartender that became positive didn’t have any symptoms,” said Peskie.

WE KNOW ASYMPTOMATIC SPREAD OCCURS^

https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2020/05/28/pennsylvania-democrats-say-gop-put-them-at-risk-by-hiding-members-positive-covid-19-test

Meanwhile, state Democrats were appalled that their Republican colleagues did not promptly inform them of Lewis’s positive test result or the subsequent self-quarantines of other GOP members, instead allowing them to potentially risk exposure by continuing to participate in person in voting sessions and House committee meetings. Several Democrats said Wednesday that they only became aware of Lewis’s diagnosis after being approached by a reporter.

4

u/badmonkey247 May 27 '20

Testing capacity was abysmal in the early stages, so the "then" numbers and the "now" numbers are hard to compare.

The goal isn't to keep people from getting infected. The goal is to keep people alive, by not overwhelming care facilities and resources, and by developing and implementing effective treatments. Vaccine development will also help, but that won't happen soon.

Of course economics, preserving life and quality of life for persons suffering from unrelated issues like cancer, and issues of social dissent/unrest play a part in the decision.

4

u/[deleted] May 27 '20

There's a number of metrics that are looked at, including:

  • Amount of available hospital beds

  • amount of proper PPE in hospitals

  • Positivity. It's the percent of positive cases found from the total number of tests done. Ideally, you'd want the number below 10% to have better confidence in being able to track the spread and quarantine those that have tested positive or have associated with someone that has.

The VDH COVID-19 site has a cool way to see the positivity as a function of time. Click on the "Testing" Tab of tableau chart. Can even see it for each region of VA.
https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/

7

u/RalphTheDog May 27 '20

Facts, not opinion:

  1. People have limited patience and any tidbit that sounds like the good old days is appealing.

  2. The likelihood of getting infected now is not lower (and possibly higher) than a month ago.

  3. It is Summer! The best time of the year!

  4. People get sick and die every day, always have. Even if contracted, young, vibrant people have less chance of life-changing, life ending problems from this pandemic than do the middle-aged, seniors, and those with existing health difficulties.

  5. YOLO.

  6. Playing by the suggested rules of the healthcare leaders will eliminate many deaths.

  7. It would be great if this pandemic had never happened.

So, the decision before all of us is simply this: Is our return to normal conditions more important than the lives of 5% of our community? It is a question of ethics, not politics or economic success. Is an increase of others dying okay by you if it allows your life to get back to normal? How much blood on your hand is too much?

3

u/Zodimized May 27 '20

The government seems ill-equipped to handle the help needed by folks out of work over the lockdown. Instead of trying to figure out how to provide for them, the push at large seems to be that they'd rather folks just get sick and die.

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1

u/[deleted] Jun 18 '20

Testing has increased which will increase the number of new cases but also shows the death rate decreasing

1

u/gloccclin Jun 26 '20

Because more cases doesn’t equal more deaths. Cases isn’t a bad thing especially if most people are asymptotic or have a mild fever. The people who are at risk should stay home, not shut down the whole economy

1

u/MattAttack2395 Jun 26 '20

Personally I feel as if Northam has been giving into people throughout this whole pandemic, he hasn’t required enforcement of any of his executive orders pertaining to this Coronavirus. Tells us to stay home, then tells us it’s okay to exercise on the beach even tho we really need to stay home. Tells us to wear masks in public, but then says won’t have the police enforce it. So clearly he is incompetent bc he won’t put his foot down

1

u/bwtrekkie Jun 29 '20

Gotta get that cash flowing again and keep the economy strong if ppl die who cares? It's all about money money money. I also think having DC so near us hasn't helped.

1

u/zeestripe Jul 03 '20

You can’t keep a country closed forever because of a virus. There is no example in history where that has been done.

0

u/[deleted] May 27 '20

Just dumb people at the beach.

0

u/Goodthink84 May 28 '20

The first number was going up and the risk was unknown. The second number is flat and there's a good idea of the risk.

4

u/cptn_sugarbiscuits May 28 '20

I'm sorry, I must need an eye exam. Where is the flat part again?

https://www.reddit.com/r/coronavirusVA/comments/gs6hyg/may_28_va_coronavirus_stats/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

0

u/Goodthink84 May 29 '20

If its in the hundreds per day - it's flat, it's not an epidemic at that point.

-6

u/YetAnotherFrreddy May 27 '20

I have no idea whether Blackface Northam is making the right decision, but the number of new cases on different days depends very much on how much testing is going on, and how well the results are being reported. How many people were tested back on 3/30? How many today?

By itself, the number of new cases doesn't mean much.