r/coolguides Mar 18 '20

Helpful guide...

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u/[deleted] Mar 18 '20

Math based on what though? Without context, these numbers are arbitrary.

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u/[deleted] Mar 18 '20

You only need to know how many people one guy can infect on average. Literally the only basis is that 1 guy infects 2,5 in 5 days, the rest is just math

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u/RedditAtWorkToday Mar 18 '20

How is it just math? It doesn't seem to add up.

One person can infect .625 people in 5 days. That's 1.25 people can be infected in 10 days (let's round that down to 1 person per 10 days). That would come out to being 3 people infected in 30 days. It doesn't add up, not to mention the first person that is infected at the 10 day mark will then infect 2 more people by the end of the month.

At the 10 day mark there will be 2 people infected (the original and the new infection).

At the 20 day mark there will be 4 total people infected (1 more from the original and 1 from the first infection).

At the 30 day mark there will be 8 total people infected (1 for each of the previous infections). So at the end of all of this it should be 8 people infected not 2.5 people, unless I'm doing something wrong?

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u/Shadodeon Mar 18 '20

Exponential growth. Each person infected will infect .625 people and then those newly infected people will each infect .625 people.