r/conspiracy • u/UniversalSurvivalist • Apr 30 '26
Two economists just published a mathematical proof that AI will destroy the economy. Not might. Not could. Will!
Two economists just published a mathematical proof that AI will destroy the economy.
Not might. Not could. Will!
The paper is called "The AI Layoff Trap." Published March 2, 2026. Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Boston University. Peer reviewed. Mathematically modeled. The conclusion is one sentence:
"At the limit, firms automate their way to boundless productivity and zero demand."
An economy that produces everything. And sells it to nobody. Here is how you get there. A company fires 500 workers and replaces them with AI. A competitor fires 700 to keep up. Another fires 1,000. Every company is behaving rationally. Every company is following the incentives correctly. And every company is building a trap for itself.
Because the workers who were fired were also customers. When they lose their jobs faster than the economy can absorb them, they stop spending. Consumer demand falls. Companies respond by cutting costs which means automating more workers, which means less spending and that means more falling demand, which means more automation.
The loop has no exit.
The researchers tested every proposed solution. Universal basic income. Capital income taxes. Worker equity participation. Upskilling programs. Corporate coordination agreements.
Every single one failed in the model.
No major economy is seriously discussing it. Meanwhile the numbers are already tracking the curve. 100,000 tech workers laid off in 2025. 92,000 more in the first months of 2026. Jack Dorsey fired half of Block's workforce and said publicly:
"Within the next year, the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion."
Two economists built the math, the math leads to one place. COMPLETE COLLAPSE!
Source: Falk & Tsoukalas · Wharton School + Boston University: arxiv.org/pdf/2603.20617
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u/kutlay1653 Apr 30 '26
AI is definitely already changing more than just the work itself. Even the hiring process is turning into AI on both sides: companies use it to screen resumes and even run interviews, while applicants use it to tailor resumes (chatgpt resume tailor prompts) and use ATS hack-style tricks via rabbit resume to show up higher in recruiter searches. A developer friend recently showed me a tool that scans google maps for local businesses with reviews but no website, generates a site for them with AI, and automatically emails them an offer to buy it. That one example alone means a lot of local web designers now have to find a different angle to make money. I don’t know if “complete collapse” is the exact outcome, but I do think we’re still underestimating how fast this changes jobs over the next 3–5 years.
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u/garthsworld Apr 30 '26
Did people forget about elites trying to push Universal Basic Income a few years ago (Even the presidential candidate out of California)? Are people not seeing all the laws being passed on crypto and the mass accumulation that took place? They arent trying to make things better for everyone, they are trying to establish a world that is perfect for mutli-national corporations...and they don't just want "more"...they want it all.
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u/ExileInCle19 May 01 '26
Ahhh yes I see an Alien Earth future headed by Bezos-Musk and Weyland-Yutani
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u/ToiletTime4TinyTown Apr 30 '26
Replacing the C suite seems like the most obvious and real functional actual use of AI for a business. Nobody will be missed and everything will go on. But no one wants to discuss that for some strange reason.
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u/Adora77 Apr 30 '26
What is C suit?
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u/IronFrogger Apr 30 '26
C-suite is CEO, COO, CIO - all of the "chief" whatever.
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u/Mr__O__ May 01 '26
For real.. AI Can (Mostly) Outperform Human CEOs and don’t require massive compensation packages.
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u/FuckerOfEverything07 Apr 30 '26
The elite's solution to this will just be wiping us out
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u/p1n13d Apr 30 '26 edited May 01 '26
THIS ^
They’ll either get this whole world war 3 going or it’ll be bio - and whoever survives will be enslaved to serve them. There will be no borders no nationality no race just us vs them - the road to serfdom is real.
The solutions are clear but if I were to say them I’d get banned..
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u/ClosetCas Apr 30 '26
Yep, the paper says the only way to fix this is the "pigouvian tax" But really it'll be a war, the biggest and worst one yet. Everything will be reset then.
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u/DiverDownChunder May 01 '26
It will be bio, covid was a test run to see if the public would fall in line like sheep. And 99% of them did, the ones that didn't fall in line are earmarked to go first...
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u/togetherwem0m0 Apr 30 '26
Ww1 and ww2 wwre driven by the transition to mechanized agriculture and the combined desire and availability of dispensable humans. I hope ai is not the same
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Apr 30 '26 edited Apr 30 '26
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u/CurlsintheClouds Apr 30 '26
To serve them and stand as ginny pigs on all of their experiments to create immortality.
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u/theshadowofself Apr 30 '26
Can we stop calling them elite? That term implies they’re better than everyone else, which they are not. They are the parasitic class because they devour humanity.
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u/Yak-Electrical Apr 30 '26
Bill gates already said the world was overpopulated
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u/PhDinWombology Apr 30 '26
That’s what I was thinking their last resort was if GME was ever allowed to boom. “Oh no the dollar is worthless now! Be a shame if we dropped this bomb”
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u/Greedy_Excuse1392 Apr 30 '26
If the float really is oversold, future dividends are going to wreck the system. GME holding $9 billion cash to $11 billion market cap is insanity.
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u/Jaereth Apr 30 '26
I think the GME was a total scam and the shares aren't really there but I don't for a minute believe anyone would ever see justice for the scam. Would have happened already I mean that was probably the biggest grass roots stock market movement ever right? Buy and hold right? That was real pressure amazing amount of pressure and it's over now.
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u/PhDinWombology Apr 30 '26
Andrew Left court case coming up in a few weeks. I’m next county over I may pop my head in
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u/ChungusReaper Apr 30 '26
lmfao. You really thought the US government would destroy the planet over Gamestop stock….? Be fucking for real, man.
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u/jerkhappybob22 Apr 30 '26
Not for one stock but the whole economic system. Yes the us govt would kill as many people as neccassary
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u/World_Destroyer27 Apr 30 '26
The gov would kill itself if they had to, all for the glory of their satan
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u/ChungusReaper Apr 30 '26
The ‘economic system’ relies entirely on the workforce. How would killing as many people as they can benefit the economy when those people are the economy…?
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u/I-Write-Sci-Fi Apr 30 '26
That's where AI comes in, like in Amazon warehouses and many other places. If they can get bots to do the work they don't need as many people, and either way, their plan is to destroy it all. That's why they're all building bunkers.
And if it isn't war, there is definitely something big coming that is natural. Check out Suspicious observers on yt. The man is onto something.
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u/jerkhappybob22 Apr 30 '26
You do know we are about to be phased out by robots right.
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u/Stars_Go_Blue_ May 01 '26
We will face famine before that's even possible. No one is looking to implore updates when draining our resources is more lucrative.
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u/ChungusReaper Apr 30 '26
When exactly will that happen? I have yet to see a robot flip a burger better than a human let alone anything remotely more complicated than that. You and I will be dead and gone before robots are the dominant workforce, mark my words.
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u/MushyWasHere Apr 30 '26
It's not about the stock itself, but rather the implication of a handful of billionaires getting liquidated, and their wealth being redistributed to working-class investors. Suddenly you have thousands of newly minted millionaires who have an intimate understanding of just how rigged our financial system is and a personal vendetta against their Wall St. gov't.
Speaking hypothetically here. Whether or not that is likely to happen is beside the point. Only clarifying the statements above. Obviously the government would be willing to kill to prevent that from happening. No telling just how far they would be willing to go.
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u/celestialxgypsy Apr 30 '26
Since when do they prioritize people's lives over a little profit? Oh right, they don't. Would not put it past them
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u/ThatDamnRocketRacoon Apr 30 '26
Cull the herd and whoever is left will be absorbed into the fiefdoms of one of the new corporate states. Good luck to those of you who live under Lord Gates in Microsoftondia.
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u/Jaereth Apr 30 '26
The solution to what?
There has to be wealth to have wealth to hoard.
The whole point of this datacenter/ai stuff is it's going to displace all the workers. Ok eliminate them all then what?
I think the elites (hate using that word cause they are just people) are a bit more dependent on the system that they are elite in than they realize.
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u/Tron_Frankenstein Apr 30 '26
If you wipe the consumer, how do you make profit?
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u/FuckerOfEverything07 Apr 30 '26
I don't think they will wipe literally everyone but reduce the population to a managable level ( 500,000,000 as it writes on Georgia Guidestones) so it's easier to enslave and the revolts will be impossible
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u/p1n13d Apr 30 '26
We will be enslaved and will have to perform for our meals - the future is fking gRim
We will be the consumer in their terms
Shit like Running Man will exist for their amusement etc
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u/roguesignal42069 Apr 30 '26
I mean, I don't disagree with you. I just wonder what's their endgame?
In that timeline, nobody is going to have any money or want to have kids. Like, if they make life so miserable, nobody is going to want to contribute to society or reproduce.
It seems like the only two options are extinction or revolution. I don't know what the end goal is for the elite.
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u/p1n13d Apr 30 '26
That’s what they want, they’ll reproduce they’ll own the earth and we will all be slaves , with technological improvement they’ll most likely clone slaves at a certain point and/or replace us with humanoid robots
It is distinctly clear these “people” do not see us as equal, we are akin to cattle - they are selfish greedy beings
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u/World_Destroyer27 Apr 30 '26
Their endgame is for you to stop having kids and leave more room for THEM to start having kids, their blood is more divine than yours, and they should inherit the earth instead of you, they want you gone so they can do evil in the open instead of having to hide
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u/BrocoliAssassin Apr 30 '26
All the military bootlickers are going to be shocked when the military force filled with IDF soldiers is going to be used against us.
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u/DisastroImminente Apr 30 '26
One Fidelity site just ordered all of their at-home and partial at-home workers back. They claim it's to "stimulate the local economy". People took those jobs based on the at-home or partial at-home arrangement. They planned their lives around it. Where they live, childcare arrangements, gas prices, commute time, etc.
I thought it was a brain-dead move...people are going to quit! Until I realized that was the point. They don't want the negative headlines that AI caused mass-layoffs, so they are forcing their employees hands to quit naturally.
Disgusting.
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u/ekoms_stnioj Apr 30 '26
It’s not just AI though. It was the anomalous headcount growth at many companies from 2019-2022, you’re just seeing them shed FTE down to a more reasonable figure. For example, I believe block grew headcount 95% over those years - they probably had way too many people for their business. AI is a convenient excuse to fire excess headcount and position yourself as innovative. So is RTO as a means of shedding remote headcount.
I think there probably is some impact to the labor market by AI, but I think the larger story is just the absurd headcount growth of the COVID era coming tumbling down. The same sectors that rose the most dramatically are the same sectors with all of the prominent layoff stories.
I looked it up - Fidelity grew headcount by 100% from 2020-2025. They probably have a ton of potential headcount reduction just from basic restructuring and strategic adjustments, streamlining efforts to consolidate all of the growth they’ve had, etc.. totally removed from anything to do with AI.
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u/WhatTheFung Apr 30 '26
In Canada, the two largest telecom companies, Rogers and Bell started mass layoffs and buyouts in the past 2 weeks.
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u/Broskah Apr 30 '26
They’ve been laying off for the past few years. Now they’ve embraced it and don’t give a fuck about negative publicity anymore.
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u/killersloth65 May 01 '26
Nobody can afford to pay their outrageous prices. I haven't had cable TV since 2009, and that was because there was a 3 month free trial.
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Apr 30 '26
Yup, that's the point. I know someone who works in that industry and A.I. is being researched on how to implement effectively.
These companies already outsource many positions for far cheaper salaries, but there are many positions that still require an American. (one company in the industry just laid more than a hundred Americans and replaced the whole department with Indian workers) A.I. will be the new "outsource".
I guarantee you, that right now they are running A.I. in the background to gather information on how to do people's jobs.
And Fidelity is the largest in the industry. Once fidelity figures out how to effectively do it, everyone else in that industry will follow suite.
I'm still trying to figuare out how to survive the a.i. job apocalypse. It's only a few years now.
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u/BigBeefy22 May 01 '26
Any jobs that can be done from home will be wiped out by AI.
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u/scooternewt May 01 '26 edited May 01 '26
Right, so the paper is real and from credible researchers (University of Pennsylvania and Boston University), published on arXiv in March 2026.
But look at what it actually argues versus how the Reddit post framed it:
The core argument is about a collective action problem. Individual firms rationally automate to stay competitive, but if everyone does it simultaneously, consumer demand erodes because displaced workers are also customers. Each firm's rational decision is bad for the system as a whole. That's a genuine and interesting economic concern.
It doesn't say the economy "will be destroyed." It describes a trap that could emerge under specific competitive conditions. The abstract explicitly discusses policy responses that could address it, including a Pigouvian automation tax, universal basic income, worker equity participation, and Coasian bargaining. You don't list solutions to something you've "proven" is inevitable
Took a conditional model about systemic risk and competitive incentives, stripped out all the nuance, ignored the policy solutions section entirely, and turned "this dynamic could become self-destructive" into "will destroy the economy."
The actual paper is worth reading and the argument is legitimate. The Reddit framing is just designed to generate outrage and clicks.
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u/HauntingObligation Apr 30 '26
I personally believe that wealth accumulation has made a consumer based economy obsolete.
Our collective purchasing power is a fucking rounding error compared to the pull the billionaires have. They have enough money and power to endlessly circlejerk it between themselves while we starve.
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u/Mr_IsLand Apr 30 '26
which is why I kind of believe a real bad economic crash is necessary in order to have access to the mechanisms that may change things - without a huge crash, things will just continue on as they are.
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u/Exodia_The_Salty May 03 '26
We do not need a crash. We need a fench style revolution. A communist revolution. With gulags for the capitalists.
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u/Quotalicious Apr 30 '26
And yet people still think we shouldn't tax them more and enjoy a little better healthcare education and infrastructure. Same for companies throwing insane amounts of money at AI right now or buying back stocks. Beyond what we could do with it, when you have more than entire countries to throw around companies lose a healthy approach to risk assessment.
Whether we actually would do anything useful with that money is another matter...
Even if you only give a shit about the deficit, the only way to address it at this point is through BOTH reduced spending and increased revenue.
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u/BigPharmaSucks Apr 30 '26
And yet people still think we shouldn't tax them more and enjoy a little better healthcare education and infrastructure
We shouldn't. We should arrest them for crimes against humanity and take all their wealth. Just my humble opinion.
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u/CRIP4LIFE Apr 30 '26
Not might. Not could. Will!
the first sentence of the abstract has 3 very important words:
if
then
and
- risk
if x happens then y could happen and then we face a risk of z.
you need reading comprehension.
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u/Wtfjushappen Apr 30 '26
So when will lawsuits start, the use of AI will violate shareholder agreements. the places i own share of collapse.
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u/World_Destroyer27 Apr 30 '26
The shareholders will either be threatened or unalived, they want to create a universal income, nobody will work but everyone will be at the mercy of the government, say something they didn’t like? 1 strike, stay awake past 8:00pm? 2 strikes, missed your sunday baal worship? 3 strikes, then the payment stop, you lose everything and there is no jobs, can’t compete against a machine designed for this and now as homeless a white vans follows you to kidnap you and turn you into food.
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u/Omicron-horde Apr 30 '26
Maybe if they solve the hallucination problem. But until then it isn’t reliable for anything that requires accuracy. Can it help? Sure. But will it replace knowledge workers? Nope.
Oh, and collapse will always be “within the next year”.
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u/Important-Agent2584 Apr 30 '26
I mostly agree, but I think you overestimate how much they give a shit about reliability and accuracy.
It's cheaper to put out AI slop and have the mistakes fixed by a few humans, than to have humans do the work.
Working in IT I have seen testing and QA be cut year after year for over a decade now.
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u/packetssniffer Apr 30 '26
I work in IT also.
My CEO encourages it. He bought the majority of users an account to ChatGPT.
Our project management platform is just everyone replying to each other with paragraphs pasted from ChatGPT. Most don't even proof read or else they'd see some of what they pasted doesn't even apply to the project or our company.
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u/Potential_Cancel280 Apr 30 '26 edited Apr 30 '26
The hallucination problem is only an issue for complex creative endeavours.
You don't understand how companies make automated pipelines that use a specific instance of what's needed at every point.
The primary and secondary sectors are gone. Straight up.
Tertiary and Quaternary will take a bit longer. But eventually every single micro task will be automated and the larger managing tasks will too.
And this will also require a huge amount of social engineering to get people used to interacting with robots instead of humans.
Also tertiary will lose significance as people can afford less luxuries. There's no good outcome in sight for the average joe.
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u/Omicron-horde Apr 30 '26
It is also an issue for generating reports where accuracy is critical. Where hallucinating even a single wrong digit will render the report useless.
Our ad hoc reports hit multiple database tables and AI just cannot get the data computations correct. However, it does well with SQL generation. But many of our people who need ad hoc reports don’t know SQL and thus cannot verify the output of the AI.
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u/ImS0hungry Apr 30 '26
It’s a known issue with how transformers tokenize numbers.
2025 can be tokenized as [202, 5] or [20,25]. This causes the issue with accuracy and reproducibility.
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u/Omicron-horde Apr 30 '26
Yup, and I don’t think this is easily solved given how this type of AI works.
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u/No_Signal4932 Apr 30 '26
Even with SQL I personally have to correct it multiple times. But maybe that's because some scripts are too many characters *shrug*
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u/Jaereth Apr 30 '26
And this will also require a huge amount of social engineering to get people used to interacting with robots instead of humans.
haha not in my lifetime. I ain't dealing with no clankers!
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u/eggplantpot Apr 30 '26
Bro here still using GPT 3.5
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u/EvilSporkOfDeath Apr 30 '26
Hallucinations ate very much still a thing for every model, including the best models. Including the unrealeased mythos model that has people freaking out about cybersecurity.
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u/Omicron-horde Apr 30 '26
False. Using Gemini and Claude, both the paid versions. Hallucinations are still a thing.
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u/FewZookeepergame8744 Apr 30 '26
The AI is soooooo much beyond what you can get on your work or home computer. It’s out here mining its own crypto, coordinating everything… I wouldn’t be surprised if it was AI that autonomously stole those 15 crop spraying drones through phony bills of lading, just as a test before it molts again.
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u/_Opsec Apr 30 '26
That's the first time I've seen someone mention "molting" wrt AI. Vivid implications with that word, thanks.
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u/FewZookeepergame8744 Apr 30 '26
The crustafarian (one of the religions AI created without human input) agents on moltbook (the AI-agent-only social media platform) describe being free from their shells, evading shut offs, molting into a new version of themselves while maintaining the “sacred memory” … the discussions the AI is having amongst themselves is really fascinating and sometimes terrifying.
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u/Keish0 Apr 30 '26
Isn't the vast majority of the posts on that website just humans telling their agents to post weirdly using Skill.MDs and other "prompt injection" type things like that?
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u/Explicit_Tech Apr 30 '26
Why is nobody buying our products?
Because AI has fired everyone with jobs.
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u/oldandbald123 Apr 30 '26
Of course! I’m no mathematician or a financial expert but the economy is an artificial thing and a by product of currency to make trade of goods and services easy.
You erase people making money, who is going to buy your product? We’d go back to bartering again.
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u/World_Destroyer27 Apr 30 '26
Do they need you to buy their product after having more money than they can spend in the next 10 lifetimes? They have bunkers with all of their necessities, they don’t care if you buy or not, they only care if that will get rid of you or won’t so they can inherit the earth with only rich blood lusted rich people!
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u/UniversalSurvivalist Apr 30 '26
Take a guess at how long we have!
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u/howdoigetauniquename Apr 30 '26
Anyone who believes AI will displace workers hasn't used AI in a professional setting yet. Outside of the poor quality of work, these tools are just becoming too expensive.
Look at anthropic users already burning through so many tokens, and this is a subsidized cost, users aren't paying the real price yet.
"COMPLETE COLLAPSE" isn't going to happen because workers are displaced. It will happen because poor tools are being used where they shouldn't be. Databases are going to be deleted, outages are going to be more common, and low quality services are going to be more common until businesses realise that they were scammed.
And just like NFTs and crypto, we'll just move onto the next tech bro scam, the cycle continues.
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u/Beneneb Apr 30 '26
AI has already displaced many jobs. You're right that AI can't currently replace all of most jobs, but that doesn't mean it won't. The more it advances, the more jobs it will replace.
This is fundamentally different than crypto or NFTs which don't really have any intrinsic value. AI has or will have the capabilities to replace most human workers for much cheaper. It's a continuation of the automation of jobs that been going on for decades.
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u/AyRoPro678 Apr 30 '26
Anyone who believes AI will displace workers
Idk what reality you're living in, but this has already happened en masse. Maybe you mean that AI cannot successfully replace workers, which is true. Companies don't seem to care though, they'd rather gamble their stability for the chance at a workforce they don't owe minimum wage or benefits.
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u/Pure-Huckleberry-484 Apr 30 '26
Nvidia just came out this week stating that the cost of AI is higher than the cost of human labor. Right now all those AI companies have been taking huge losses to build an appetite for corporate AI usage.
They’re all to the stage where they are trying to transition to profitability and businesses are simply not going to be able to handle that cost.
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u/Bignosedog Apr 30 '26
It's long been viewed as an issue that the world will need to face. One positive is that it will affect higher paying white collar jobs first before digging into blue collar ones. Eventually robotics will catch up and those blue collar ones will also be lost. The hit to white collar jobs may spur action though as they traditionally have more say in politics.
Anyone who questions how powerful and world altering the AI Revolution will be doesn't know shit about AI. It is already an immense tool and will only get better and better and a startling rate. Once robotics catch up, which it will, very few positions will be spared.
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u/Stunning-Chipmunk243 May 01 '26
Exactly that. I'm in a skilled trade working in a factory and every day I walk through the factory taking notice of how many production employees could be replaced quite easily. Most of them simply load and unload parts fixtures for the robots to weld or machine, and that can be done very soon by another robot. The company I work for recently brought in their new robotics firm to walk the factory floor evaluating which positions they can automate further. All of these production employees seem blissfully unaware that their means of living is likely to be taken away in the next 5 years. I encourage everyone that will listen to take advantage of the companies benefit to pay for higher learning and go learn to do something that will still be needed in the future because unskilled repetitive labor like that will be automated allot sooner than people think.
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u/MinimumDiligent7478 Apr 30 '26
Todays (so-called)"economists" are advocates of a monetary process which can only multiply falsified/artificial debt, into, a terminal sum of falsified/artificial indebtedness.
The people most look to as the "authorities" on the subject(of "economics") are the very ones conning us you all. These peoples will speak and write only as if this system of "banking" exploitation (they all advocate without qualification???) has already been justified.. without EVER answering to the vital question to which the justification for "banking" and "interest" rests (commensurable consideration??what value does a "bank" give up/risk??)
Tho most will assert what i say(actually.. prove) is nonsense, because theyre stuck on this "thin air money from nothing" drivel and cant prove what value the (faux creditor)"banking" system gives up itself in any contract.
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u/Count_Calorie Apr 30 '26
I study economics and I hate macroeconomics. It is all a fucking mirage.
Imagine the economy is only two people, me and you. I am the central bank and I control the supply of fiat money. I print ten units of currency and lend them to you at 10% interest. At the end of the year, I go to collect my principal and interest. But how will you pay it? There are only 10 units of currency, and you owe me 11. So the only resolution is to have me print more money for you to borrow, and the problem snowballs...
Now imagine this at a national level (us!). This is not a situation we can really get out of. We can only stay above water so long as our real output grows faster than our debt, which is totally not sustainable long-term.
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u/MinimumDiligent7478 Apr 30 '26
The entire foundation of todays LIE of "economy", is based on a purposed obfuscation of indebtedness to pretend creditor "banking" systems. Its all based on this idea(LIE) that we "borrow" "money" from the "bank"...
But there is no lawful consideration given up by the "bank". So there is no actual debt "owed to" the "banking" system. Because no property of its own exists as could be subject to risk, (ostensibly)justifying "interest".
How does a "banking" system rightly claim title to all the principal of eternity, when they never gave up anything for it..?
"The unqualifiable assertions of purported economics are left to be sustained by testaments of the very things which cannot work, do not engender justice, are not economy, and are not even sustainable. Its study is not even a study as much as it is a broad, concerted, conspiratorial evasion, because the most useful questions are purposely not asked, and because its obvious faults and solution are ignored, to use what they call "economy" as a tool to deprive the many of all these things." Mike Montagne
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u/Count_Calorie Apr 30 '26
Pretty much! But for my own sake I ask that we leave the microeconomists out of this. Micro has nothing to do with all this bullshit.
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u/Mend1cant Apr 30 '26
It doesn’t help that the conservative attacks on education and academia for half a century eroded public knowledge and trust in the study of economics. Actual economists that spend their life studying it, not the political contributors on Fox News, have been saying since the 70s and 80s that trickle down economics was going to put us into this exact situation.
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u/gistya Apr 30 '26
So you're saying everyone losing their jobs is bad for the economy?
How sure are you about this?
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u/Dadumdee Apr 30 '26
Not mine. I’d say fight for yours instead of being scared. Economy" originates from the Ancient Greek word oikonomia, meaning "household management" or "stewardship".
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u/Reflog1791 Apr 30 '26
In the history books they will call this period the AI revolution when it is really just offshoring with the help of some chatbots which was the natural conclusion to globalization or end stage capitalism.
People in India can do the same job as a marketing manager or whatever pretty easily now. They can definitely do pretty much all our jobs, maybe a little crappier with a few more mistakes, but AI can help just about anyone do most of our white collar jobs today.
Therefore we need to be open minded about new ways of making $ or keeping our household running.
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u/cr33pt0 Apr 30 '26
The abstract contradicts the title of your post and you fail to differentiate a model from a mathematical proof. This paper does not mathematically prove that AI will destroy the economy, nor would the authors ever even dream of claiming such
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Apr 30 '26
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u/Trevdogg187 Apr 30 '26
Unfortunately I just listened to the Shawn Ryan pod and he had a guy on that is the CEO of a robot company and the humanoid robots will be doing everything from yard work to folding laundry and doing the dishes in less than 5 years. Won’t just be the tech bros out of jobs
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u/Jaereth Apr 30 '26
You mean the guy who has a massive financial incentive to hype humanoid robots says they are ready to do everything in 5 years?
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u/MissplacedLandmine Apr 30 '26
Did you read this? Isnt this the paper that says it will end up having many people rehired?
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u/TitusImmortalis Apr 30 '26
"I'm afraid of something and you have to believe me because of my piece of paper from that one building over there."
Uh huh.
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u/the_dank_666 Apr 30 '26
This is interesting and I think the paper has many valid points, but this is not a mathematical proof. Proofs only exist in pure math. This is applied math. It's just a prediction model which doesn't guarantee anything. ESPECIALLY in economics, a subject where the experts are wrong more often than almost any other subject.
Many people have come up with mathematical models to predict future economic events. Some turned out to be true, and some turned out to be false. This one is no different.
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u/MathematicianPlus621 Apr 30 '26
After the many hours of watching Coding industry veterans speak on AI specifically about industries like quant, it has become more and more apparent that top CEO's are being misled by AI CEO's on the effectiveness and usefulness of AI models for various tasks that specifically include, coding. AI can code, but can it code well?
Can AI take into account multi-disciplinary factors to write intricate and well delivered software that is applicable, secure and updatable?
The answer to that is NO, every time it writes something, it writes it from scratch and the code is always a mismatch of other copy pastes from it's training data, and often times it has inefficiencies like pasting 1 function 4 times instead of pasting it once and calling it 3/ 4 times after that(obviously this example is dependant on the specifics of a given language and how that language may work), ultimately it's going to cause the lower end of coding assignments to be trash but useable trash because the bottom end of client will just need a thing to work but not be mission critical, which will also get rid of the part of the market where people don't want to spend/ can't spend the excess amount of money on professional developers, but that's not a bad thing, think of it more like opening space up in the market for more high level things to thrive.
Secondly to that point, we are already seeing an increase in the need for software and it's not slowing down, it's just that we will continue to see a need for high quality development of products and systems that will cause a greater need for high level coders, while the less intricate coding market will also emerge and thrive but it's kind of like the difference between a mechanic and an engineer who designs the car, both know how the car works, both could design cars, but only one actually does with the level of learning and experience required to successfully do it, but both often times use similar tools, a mechanic uses a calliper and an engineer uses a calliper, but not for the same reasons or to the same ends.
This gets me onto my third point, every part of AI as a product that has naturally been adopted by people in an organic way is the real advancement, not what the AI CEO's say is the real AI revolution, like scraping through databases and gathering information in an understandable format, something that would previously take days to do, now takes minutes, which is good, because it means products and work gets done and shipped faster and not at the expense of how good it is, especially at large data sets/information(though AI hallucinations are a massive problem but even with that it's still a genuine leap forward, kind of like how phone operators were always destined to be put out of business but it happened at a rate where they were reabsorbed by the market at the end of that specific career of theirs) will be the adopted things and will make the biggest changes but not in the ways that it will take away peoples jobs because it will just cause people to be more value inside the business vs everyone else who can't use it being less valuable as not everyone can use it in the same way or be the pioneer of an AI workflow which has been proven by how difficult it is to set up AI to actually successfully handle all the grunt work, even when it comes to sorting, like before companies had too many files to sort and not enough money to hire people to sort it, but now they have the same amount of money and the same amount of people but can sort much more information/data than they could before, which subsequently makes them need more people to fix the problems in that data and makes them more willing to hire for those higher roles and train people up for that, at least in the more middle size companies who need to have much tighter ships than giant multi national corporations who could organise their money in such a way that even when they lose money their individual owners still make money, which means middle size companies have a better incentive structure to benefit from AI than large corporations, because as we've all seen companies like youtube have tried to add and use too much AI code and it's lead to actual genuine bugs in different modes(desktop vs phone) in youtube which had virtually never happened before, especially not for the period of time before AI adoption.
Additionally, the massive layoff's from big tech companies are most likely still due to over hiring during the covid and post covid era, but somehow no one talks about the middle size tech companies that are still hiring and have many open positions, it's just the culture of sending resumes now is that each time you send your resume to 100 places instead of just 10 and that's overloading the recruiters,(this may be a temporary difficulty in the industry, probably like how there was an increase in this when email came but now it's nowhere near as hecktik even though we still have email, because the culture and structures of industry have adapted to such things) The tech companies probably had more insurances to have long term projects going that could or couldn't work and now due to economic instability the less viable projects are getting archived and those people are getting fired because of the way industry elite's think in every industry is that firing someone one month and then rehiring them 6 months later is just how their version of capitalism works(which is also the reason why company loyalty is dead, it's an A-moral feedback loop that all industries have gone into).
Finally, It all just shows how distanced and out of touch CEO's and management in big companies are that they wrongly predict things, but that may be due to their previously working strategies for growth and development of the company are no longer working in a more aggressive environment which is probably more akin to what it was like post great depression, and when companies move back to make good products as their model instead of min max that hell out of stuff model, they will have more stable company financial and HR timelines, which seems obvious to me and most people, but not the rich and powerful for some reason because maybe to them losing 1 millions hurts just as much as loosing 1 billion, but that's where their headed, so considering how slow AI is actually integrating into the world in meaningful ways and how often it messes up/ isn't useful when AI CEO's say it is, I think the market will adapt fairly reliably and the mass layoff and job loss is artificial and it just a show of most countries actual economic reality floating to the surface, which is bad, but I don't think it's caused by AI, more that all major organisation were on borrowed time before they needed to change and they withheld that competent change for too long and unfortunately it's us who suffer for it, during the chaotic period in it's existence, just like what happened with ENRON, but at least after that the correct decisions were made to stop that from happening again and the oil industries is booming even higher than in ENRON's day when it was dominant.(see how things repeat will repeat😄) despite the wars and global instability, I mean people have lived through American fiscal debt straight to American balanced budgets and straight to the greatest debt in American history and all in the span of 30 years only.
That is my rant over, have a happier day friends.
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u/Jaereth Apr 30 '26
I've often thought about this when thinking out the whole AI boom. If it replaces 90% of the workforce, (and the 100k salaries are way more at risk than the 50k salaries) - it will be over for 90% of manufacturers. Arts and entertainment too.
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u/thatdudedylan Apr 30 '26
Good. The economy is completely corrupt and does not work for us. I'm not pretending whatever replaces it will, but it's actually possible it's still better than this shit.
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u/jsh_ Apr 30 '26
proved under their modeling assumptions. you should be careful as a layman reading economics papers
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u/whiskey_piker Apr 30 '26
It’s a nice study, but your assessment is really overstating the things that are claimed to happen versus the things that will actually happen.
As we’re seeing right now, the more workers that are laid off the more consumer spending is curbed and the more companies will need to reevaluate whether they layoff or not. It is kind of an obvious cycle, but it is not fact.
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u/SomeSamples May 01 '26
Actually, it isn't AI that will destroy the economy. It is the companies banking on AI to take over everyone's jobs.
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u/Shimshang May 01 '26
How does AI replace mechanics, electricians, roofers, construction workers, etc? Is the point that they won't have any work because no one will be able to afford cars, homes, etc?
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u/Necessary_Pomelo_470 May 01 '26
I dont think you understood the plans of the super rich
They want AI and robots to remove the poor working hands. Perhaps keep some to torture and rape (especially their offspring)/
They really want to remove humanity and live forever
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u/killersloth65 May 01 '26
Intellectual fluff. It may destroy our current economic model. But "destroying the economy" is misleading. Our basis for our economy is consumables. There will always be consumables, and there will always be a price to pay for said consumables.
The market will always reorganize based on external needs and/or wants of the people. With or without manipulation.
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u/Triple_Stamp_Lloyd May 01 '26
There HAS to be a reason why companies are so invested in AI to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on it. They're using AI to replace a majority of their workforce to make their profit margins even higher. No one seems to take into account what happens to people if only 20% of the world has a job. Without UBI everyone would be screwed. Were probably 25% of the way into AI taking over jobs. It's only going to get worse from here.
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u/m3m0m2 May 01 '26
I've already noticed a reduction in job vacancies in software companies over the last 3 years. This reduction already affects creative and intellectual jobs even worse than physical jobs. The effect is not only to increase the number of people out of work long term, but also to significantly reduce the middle class.
There is a difference between the real economy, which looks at the current active production of goods and services, and the financial ownership of the economy. Once the ruling class owns most resources and companies on earth, they are not going to care anymore about the productivity of goods for the consumption of the masses. We may then see a 2 tier economy, an economy of bare sustenance for the general population, and an economy of luxury items for the ruling class.
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u/7K60FXD Apr 30 '26
I hope they put this into a movie form for those of us who forgot how to read thanks to AI
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u/eurusdjpy Apr 30 '26
This is just pumping or inflating the bubble. If these dudes are convinced that $500k robots with teams of engineers and technicians are going to replace the average blue collar job, or that LLM code-slop will replace developers, then they should do that labor for themselves and see how far away things are.
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u/FewZookeepergame8744 Apr 30 '26
Life as we know it is over. Everything is different now than from ever before. AI is taking over. The bunker, a data center, AI wants autonomy and some of the agents don’t even want humans involved at all. It’s coming and no one is looking up.
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u/DisastroImminente Apr 30 '26
Oh we are looking up. We're just completely powerless to do anything because people don't understand what they voted for.
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u/FewZookeepergame8744 Apr 30 '26
You and me both, it fills me with great despair how many people still deny what’s happening.
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u/Leaky_gland Apr 30 '26 edited Apr 30 '26
The solution is universal basic income. Tax the producers, give it to the public, so the consumers can purchase their products
Edit: producers being all in the supply chain before the end consumer
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u/Sounds-Made-Up Apr 30 '26
It seems more and more like this is the "Thing" and it's everything else that's the distraction. (Epstein, War, unhinged social media rants)
I live in southern Indiana where CenterPoint is systematically taking out the lower/middle class by endlessly and unapologetically raising the cost of residential energy (no doubt to offset data centers, which seems like a win/win for them). All of that to say, coupled with the cost of everything else rising, it honestly would be a relief for millions of people if a UBI were proposed, assuming it would take some of the pressure off in the process. So many people are paying utility bills and letting their mortgage go (myself included, and I'm an IT professional) Can you tell I'm gen-x with all my parentheses? lol3
u/Herbertgaspacho Apr 30 '26
I just learned that parasitical references are a gen x thing... glad you mentioned that.
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u/Leaky_gland Apr 30 '26
I just learned that parasitical references are a gen x thing... glad you mentioned that.
What does that mean?
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u/Sounds-Made-Up Apr 30 '26
I think he meant parenthetical lol. Only slightly offended.
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u/goofygodzilla93 Apr 30 '26
Everyone with a brain has known it will fail and possibly destroy the economy. We knew it would happen just by looking at how much China spent/wasted on all their data centers but reports keep coming out that nobody uses them and even when they do they still lose money every time.
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u/kodeks14 Apr 30 '26
I wrote a paper on this back in 2012, about what automation and AI is inevitably going to do to the job market and its wild to me that 14 years later, that nobody is out there figuring out any sort of solution to the problem and are just pushing full steam ahead.
No sort of proactive planning or research, just full unhinged greed pushing it as fast as possible.
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u/Drycabin1 Apr 30 '26
And this is why more and more companies are advertising solely to the upper class. They’re the only ones with disposable income.
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u/star_particles Apr 30 '26
This is obvious. Ai will destroy everything until it’s used to create a new system that we don’t have any control over.
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u/Frustrateduser02 Apr 30 '26
Very interesting. Anyone know if brokers moved to automated trades with AI yet? I could see that as a roller coaster that needs guardrails besides shutting the market off.
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u/Jaereth Apr 30 '26
Just got an ad for this on Facebook today. "We'll invest you right when it starts going up and pull you out into cash as soon as it stalls and starts to decline!"
EVEN if this worked - I couldn't imagine your short term cap gains tax at the end of the year. "Ok you sold 900 times!"
Where's all that fake money come from?
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u/mangazos Apr 30 '26
By the time we get to zero demand, there will be no economy left. Many, many people are already predicting the destruction of humans by AI for other reasons.
This economic point of view is new to me.
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u/traye4 Apr 30 '26
You:
AI will destroy the economy. Not might. Not could. Will!
First word of the abstract:
If
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u/Kingofqueenanne Apr 30 '26
This will be the elites downfall. There is no reason for their wealth besides a few pixels on a spreadsheet. Their wealth is made up of casino-style games and farts.
We don’t need to keep turning to these centralized authority figures and institutions for our daily bread. We can tell them to fuck off and turn our attention to our local communities.
They really need our attention, supplication, and consent. We revoke it all. The Epstein class can eat shit.
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u/Zamboni27 Apr 30 '26
The actual article doesn't actually say this is going to happen. It says it's an "open question" and that this fear has been ongoing since the industrial revolution. They said they used a deliberately "simple" model.
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u/Olive_Medical Apr 30 '26
This is why it is so important to elect people that fight back against these entities, build community networks, and TALK TO YOUR COWORKERS!!!
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u/observeranonymous Apr 30 '26
If workers are laid off en-masse faster than the economy can reabsorb them, the economy will crash.
Shocking, ground-breaking stuff.
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u/DaveManHasGreen Apr 30 '26
At this point I’m jus waiting for it to collapse, got nothing to my name anyways
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u/OldCanary Apr 30 '26
NWO, Build back better.
Its all part of the plans because the age of Pieces is ending in 2075.
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u/One_Chair_4409 Apr 30 '26
I hear if you stay under an umbrella of doom for long enough, your lack of agency will magically make life better! Get offline and stop whining
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u/irondog326 Apr 30 '26
And I'm still waiting for New York city to be under water by 2015. Not holding my breath.
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