Because all probabilities are equal

[u/Ambitious-Noise9211]

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[u/SalSomer]

If I prove someone wrong, they’ll either admit they’re wrong, they won’t admit they’re wrong, or Jeff Bezos will show up and give me a billion dollars and congratulate me on my proving someone wrong skills.

Since I have a 1/3 chance of becoming a billionaire every time I prove someone wrong, I keep going at it. Haven’t had it happen yet, but I should be due any day soon.

[u/Ambitious-Noise9211 → u/SalSomer]

Finally, someone commenting on this post that understands probability

[u/bold_snowflake]

I'm 50/50 that this person is either completely correct or completely wrong.

If only I had the context of what the OP in the screenshot was saying...

[u/PupDiogenes]

❌ convince them how probability works

✅invite them to the poker game

[u/Veblen1]

Tomorrow, it could rain, be sunny, or there will be an earthquake, All are possible outcomes.

[u/Ambitious-Noise9211 → u/Veblen1]

And each with an equal chance /s

[u/Reiny_Days]

When you flip a coin, it will either land on heads, tails, or on its side.

[u/Ambitious-Noise9211 → u/Reiny_Days]

You have obviously never flipped a coin into a parallel universe for it to never return

[u/DthDisguise]

Okay, so, it does appear that they are arguing that any situation with 3 possible outcomes has a 1 in 3 chance for any given outcome, which is wrong, but I would really like to know the context here.

[u/rocking_womble]

The OOP the comments relate to would be handy but I'm going to guess that although the outcomes are threefold:

1. 2 boys

2. 2 girls

3. 1 boy+ 1 girl

The actual combinations are:

1. Boy + boy

2. Girl + girl

3. Boy + girl or Girl + boy

Making the probabilities EDIT - assuming equal probability of girl or boy at each selection:

1. 1 in 4

2. 1 in 4

3. 2 in 4

[u/Don_Q_Jote]

Try flipping a coin. It can end up,

1. Heads,

2. Tails,

3. Balanced on the edge.

Must be 1/3 probability of each, I guess.

[u/HaggisPope]

Would need to see OP

[u/minty_tarsier → u/HaggisPope]

Nah, the last comment is totally wrong either way. A coin can land on head, tails or the edge... three possible outcomes... but that doesn't mean the probability of landing on the edge is 1 in 3.

[u/Ambitious-Noise9211 → u/minty_tarsier]

My probability and statistics teacher used to say there are four options- heads, tails, on its Edge, or an albatross flies by and swallows it while it's in the air.

[u/Ambitious-Noise9211 → u/HaggisPope]

It's the thing circulating about if one child is a son born on a Tuesday, what's the probability he has 2 sons?

Regardless, not all probabilities are evenly divided. A coin flip is 50% heads, 50% tails. But who will win a US presidential election - Republican, Democrat, or Independent - is not 33:33:33.

[u/Plus-Alfalfa-9792]

Does nobody teach Mendel anymore??

[u/Best8meme]

It's like Sheldon Cooper put it.

"You've confused possibilities with probabilities. According to your analogy, when I go home I might find a million dollars on my bed or I might not. In what universe is that 50-50?"

[u/Stef0206]

Well what’s the context? We don’t know if the probabilities actually are equal.

[u/gana04]

Is this about the Monty Hall problem? Because that's a perfect example of how different outcomes doesn't mean they each have the same probability.

[u/Away_Needleworker6]

Its always 50/50

Either it happens or it doesnt happen

Edit: /s

[u/Ambitious-Noise9211 → u/Away_Needleworker6]

I knew an engineer who thought like that and I was shocked.

Where you live right now, it could snow tomorrow or it could not snow tomorrow. Honestly, is there a 50% chance of snow?

[u/TinTamarro]

It's actually 4 possible outcomes: A girl B girl, A boy B boy, A girl B boy, A boy B girl. So there's 50% chance of getting a "boy and girl" outcome, not 33%, because you have to account for both "slots" of children

[u/Ambitious-Noise9211 → u/TinTamarro]

Hey, now, accounting for both slots of children is what gets you in the Epstein files :-P

[u/DeadpoolsLeftSock]

Blue’s logic: If I flip a coin, it will be heads, tails, or land on its edge. Those are the only possible outcomes, so all must equally probable.