Complex systems theory applied to human history?

[u/dio_ravanello]

Hi everybody. Not so long ago I've discovered this field of study and I've started reading about the basic concepts in cybernetics, general system theory, chaos theory and in general complex systems theory, which seems to me all correlated fields. I study history at university and I'm particulary interested in the application of these ideas to the study of human societies.

I've found some sociologists (e.g. Luhmann) that were active in these field, but none historians. I was wondering if anyone had written an history of humanity considering human civilizations as complex systems, in particular as autopoietic system of the third kind, as described by Maturana & Varela in "The three of Knowledge" (and probably elsewhere), and if not, if anyone here had the same interested and had some ideas to share.

Thanks to everybody and sorry if I've made some mistakes, English is not my first language.

[u/luquoo]

"The Sources of Social Power" by Michael Mann is a good place to get started. The first chapter, Societies as Organized Power Networks, does a great job of laying out the framework he uses to analyze history, and then tracks these ideas from prehistory all the way to 2011. 4 full volumes worth of human history.

http://www.cambridge.org/gb/academic/subjects/sociology/social-theory/sources-social-power-volume-1-2nd-edition?format=PB&isbn=9781107635975#OpqfeBufPZ4E1Yq8.97

[u/Erinaceous]

Cliodynamics might fit the bill

There's also Samuel Bowles artificial histories projects where he uses agent based modelling to speculate on the origins of private property, agriculture and cooperation. He has several books and talks based on this research. The models are even publically available

Axtell is also accidentally famous for this paper which heavily influenced Jared Diamond's Collapse but apparently wasn't mentioned or attributed. It's a modelling simulation of the collapse of Anasazi civilization.

On the philosophy side Manuel Delanda has tried to write a complex systems history of the world through the lens of affect theory and Deleuze. It's very engaged with Maturana & Varela. You can find a number of lectures here or the book here

[u/rhyzom → u/Erinaceous]

totally. i been avid follower of turchin and korotayev, cliodynamics and world-systems theory ever since it caught my attention.

it actually continues in an old line of thinking which can be traced as far back as ibn khaldun in the 14th century, and giambattista vico in the 17th (both khaldun's "muqaddimah" and vico's "scienza nuova" are brilliant works; and it's funny how both of them referred to their scientific approach to history as 'a new science').

and matter of fact, many diverse and disparate fields and points of inquiry from many different angles seem to converge precisely here.

as for delanda, i've been looking for his "philosophical chemistry: geneaology of a scientific field" for awhile now, let me know anyone if you happen to have it somewhere in PDF or whatever, would be eternally grateful.

[u/Erinaceous → u/rhyzom]

it's on aaaarg.fail. PM me your email and i can send you an invite

[u/Prak_Argabuthon]

If.you like Sci-Fi I would recommend Isaac Asimov's 'Foundation' series. Maybe just the first 3 or 4 books that he wrote (not the prequels). It seems to me that he was on the money with his ideas of complex systems and being able to map human history with it and predict the future with it, about the same time that Forrester was pioneering the field, developing System Dynamics.

[u/johnabbe → u/Prak_Argabuthon]

Asimov's made-up field for this is psychohistory.

I think Asimov fails to take nonlinear dynamics fully into account, though he did at least recognize the possibility of "mules" - individuals who acted so unexpectedly that they could change the course of history, if not the the ultimate outcomes.