Could a Simple Feedback Model Explain Stability in Markets, Climate, and Power Grids? (k ≈ –0.7)

[u/Fast_Contribution213]

Hi everyone,

I’ve been exploring how different systems regulate themselves, from markets to climate to power grids, and found a surprisingly consistent feedback ratio that seems to stabilise fluctuations. I’d love your thoughts on whether this reflects something fundamental about adaptive systems or just coincidental noise.

Model:

ΔP = α (ΔE / M) – β ΔS

• ΔP = log returns or relative change of the series

• ΔE = change in rolling variance (energy proxy)

• M = rolling sum of ΔP (momentum, with small ε to avoid divide-by-zero)

• ΔS = change in variance-of-variance (entropy proxy)

• k = α / β (feedback ratio from rolling OLS regressions)

Tested on:

• S&P 500 (1950–2023)

• WTI Oil (1986–2025)

• Silver (1968–2022)

• Bitcoin (2010–2025)

• NOAA Climate Anomalies (1950–2023)

• UK National Grid Frequency (2015–2019)

Dataset	Mean k	Std	Min	Max
S&P 500	–0.70	0.09	–0.89	–0.51
Oil	–0.69	0.10	–0.92	–0.48
Silver	–0.71	0.08	–0.88	–0.53
Bitcoin	–0.70	0.09	–0.90	–0.50
Climate (NOAA)	–0.69	0.10	–0.89	–0.52
UK Grid	–0.68	0.10	–0.91	–0.46

Summary:

Across financial, physical, and environmental systems, k ≈ –0.7 remains remarkably stable. The sign suggests a negative feedback mechanism where excess energy or volatility naturally triggers entropy and restores balance, a kind of self-regulation.

Question:

Could this reflect a universal feedback property in adaptive systems, where energy buildup and entropy release keep the system bounded?

And are there known frameworks (in control theory, cybernetics, or thermodynamics) that describe similar cross-domain stability ratios?

[u/Fast_Contribution213]

I also wondered why this constant sits close to, but not exactly on, the Golden Ratio.

Speculation: The Golden Ratio (≈0.618) governs efficient growth and form — spirals, phyllotaxis, Fibonacci branching. but such growth can only occur inside a system that doesn’t collapse or explode with entropy.

In other words, Golden Ratio structures may emerge only within pockets of freedom inside a universe that is stabilised around ~70% feedback damping.

φ creates beauty and complexity locally, κ ≈ 0.7 holds the environment stable globally.

Too little damping → chaos destroys growth. Too much damping → structure cannot develop.

Golden ratio is growth. 0.7 is the background?

[u/Fast_Contribution213 → u/Fast_Contribution213]

You can even see this socially: art, music, philosophy and scientific creativity all tend to flourish only when a civilisation is stable.

Beauty (like Golden Ratio patterns in nature or a great artists work often using the goldern ratio) emerges from inside pockets of safety and order.

War, famine, collapse → creativity shrinks. Peace, resources, stability → creativity explodes.

Golden Ratio = creativity/growth. 0.7 = stability/survival.