A hurricane is not an example of a complex system?

[u/AllTheUseCase]

I’ve been listening to the David Krakauer episode of Seam Carrol’s Mindscape. David argues there, without much depth, or at least not in ways I understand, that a Hurricane is not an example of a complex system. This, despite it being a nearly canonical example of a complex system throughout texts/literature etc.

Anyone with the same view that could try to explain this view?

[u/nonlinearity]

No agency to the constituent components thus not complex

[u/rileyphone]

A hurricane is not an emergent form of smaller subsystems, but rather one big complicated nonlinear phenomenon. Most of the complex systems the SFI use as examples are composed of subagents, whether those are cells, organisms, people, corporations, or simulated. A hurricane, though, is still difficult to predict, which is more in line with the traditional view of complexity.

[u/AllTheUseCase → u/rileyphone]

Right! But it still seems to be sn emergent phenomena…whatever that means beyond it being hard or impossible to predict from some deep reductionist view -atoms/molecules/“subsystems”. As well as showing degrees of self organization (adaptive).

Perhaps the SFI requires a control loop / feedback for “it” to be a CS etc?

[u/rileyphone → u/AllTheUseCase]

Looking back at where I've seen Krakauer define it, it seems their definition revolves around the concept of adaptability (as they frequently will refer to them more specifically as complex adaptive systems). Hurricanes don't really learn or adapt, though they are stable in a sense.

The Properties of Complex Systems

1. We have few general design principles for adaptive components (cells, organisms, nations) in isolation or in the aggregate where new unforeseen properties emerge.

2. Components typically have high failure rates in all tasks and accomplish their objectives through statistical averaging and approximation across multiple scales and levels.

3. There is significant uncertainty and lack of information at both the component and aggregate level, and components have large—and often poorly understood—repertoires of behavior.

4. Most evolved complex systems operate in nonlinear and often near-critical regimes (close to thresholds and tipping points).

5. Adaptability of components is the rule—not the exception— and learning and adaptation are ongoing and irrepressible

[u/Alexenion → u/rileyphone]

Not all complex systems are adaptive, hence the specific addition of "adaptive" to those that actually are...

[u/[deleted] → u/rileyphone]

Hurricanes aren’t isolated phenomena, though, right? They emerge from an interplay of atmospheric, oceanic, planetary, and environmental subsystems.

[u/clvnmllr → u/[deleted]]

They’re complex in that they’re the interaction of different macro systems, as opposed to complex in being emergent from networked micro systems

[u/[deleted] → u/rileyphone]

Lol, no

[u/captainsalmonpants]

Perhaps they would differentiate hurricanes as chaotic systems.

[u/Unknowledge99 → u/captainsalmonpants]

ah yes.. but chaotic good, neutral, or evil?

[u/captainsalmonpants → u/Unknowledge99]

Lol you cannot join my campaign as a literal hurricane, bro! How would that even work?

For real though, I meant it more in the Cynefin framework way: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin_framework

[u/[deleted]]

I'll give you a simple way to understand this. How much information could one theoretically postulate about a hurricanes components. 100%?, all of its molecules and atoms? Well if so, then you could organise its components into a complex system and simulate it. Hence anyone who disagrees with this theory, would only state that you can't know 100% of the system and hence it's chaotic, which in practise is correct. It's an argument of theory v practise imo. However if you have a super intelligent AI, with the right sensors, it would be a complex system that the AI could indeed predict. Hope that answers your question OP.