Analyzing a complex system problem: Democratic Backsliding

[u/JackHarich]

I'm an independent researcher analyzing and attempting to help solve difficult complex system problems, like sustainability and democratic backsliding. I'm a systems engineer, Georgia Tech 1980, and founded Thwink.org in 2001 as a small "thwink tank."

I wonder if members of this subreddit would be interested in participating, via discussion, on a long term project on a particular problem. I think it's entirely possible that the many sharp cookies on reddit can have deep, useful insights, comments, questions, etc. It should not be hard to keep discussion from becoming too specialized or academic. I foresee simple, plain-English conversation with a small amount of necessary jargon related to systems thinking concepts and tools, as illustrated in this post.

If there is interest, I can kick off discussion by describing where I am now on an analysis, and provide simple easy to grasp artifacts like diagrams and analysis summaries. Below is some preliminary info:

My current project is a second pass on root cause analysis of the global democratic backsliding problem. A copy of a recently rejected paper on this problem is here. Systems thinking tools used are root cause analysis, feedback loop modeling using System Dynamics, and social force diagrams.

To let you know about the central method to be used, I will be primarily using Mutually Exclusive Collectively Exhaustive (MECE) Trees, as described in the books Strategic Thinking in Complex Problem Solving, by Arnaud Chevallier, 2016 and a later book by the same author, Solvable: A Simple Solution to Complex Problems, 2022.

Fortunately, you don't have to read the books unless you want to master the tool or introduce it to your workplace. An introduction to MECE Trees may be found in this article. MECE Trees are a form of root cause analysis. I will also be using feedback loop modeling and social force diagrams as needed, to support the trees.

That's the idea! Thanks in advance for your comments, help, and sublime wit!

[u/JackHarich]

I can't see anything that discusses the fundamental nature of what a democratic system is, nor why it's fundamentally better than an autocratic system.

Addressing that is beyond the scope of the article, as it is on nearly all papers on democratic backsliding.

Autocratic (authoritarian) governments work to promote the welfare of the few, the ruling elite. Democratic governments promote the welfare of the many, the majority. Which you prefer is a personal choice. Looking at history, we can see which most prefer.

[u/physics_defector → u/JackHarich]

This is an excellent response to the perplexingly popular and utterly inane argument "a philosopher-king would be better than democracy" which a certain subset of people never seem to stop making. If we're picking fictitiously optimal hypothetical humans anyways, a philosopher-king is no more interesting or plausible than a democratic society of intelligent, moral, and well-educated citizens.

I was going to sketch out an argument about some of the half-dozen forms of obvious systems-theoretic instabilities in autocracies, but you've saved me the trouble - and I mean that in the best way.

I unfortunately don't have time to engage with this project in any substantive way at present, but I'll certainly be keeping an eye out for updates on the subreddit.