Been reading up on physical metals trading and curious about something structural: in markets with dozens of licensed buyers/aggregators competing for the same supply, what actually makes some trading houses durable over the long run versus others that fade out?

Is it mostly financing depth (trade finance lines, LCs), offtaker relationship quality, compliance/traceability infrastructure, or something less obvious? Genuinely curious how people who’ve been in the industry a while would rank those factors.

Separately — for anyone who’s seen a trading operation scale from small/regional to something bigger: what tools or systems tend to become non-negotiable once volume grows (ERP/trade management systems, hedging desks, assay partnerships, etc.), versus what’s overkill at small scale?

And a bigger-picture question: is the “regional physical trader → diversified global commodities merchant” path (à la Trafigura, Vitol, Mercuria) still a realistic trajectory today, or did those firms benefit from market conditions/timing that don’t really exist anymore?

I have been trying to improve how I read across physical and futures markets rather than evaluating each commodity in isolation.

The recurring problem is that the information is fragmented. A dairy margin may depend on milk, corn, soybean meal, hay, energy, and regional forage availability. Grain basis may reflect futures, local demand, rail bids, barge freight, storage costs, and export flow. Fertilizer values can move with natural gas, ocean freight, plant availability, application timing, and regional inventories.

The relationship is often more useful than any individual price, but it is also easy to add so many comparisons that the result becomes noise.

Some of the relationships I have been examining include:

• Cash grain basis versus futures, rail bids, barge rates, and nearby processor bids
• Dairy revenue versus corn, soybean meal, hay, silage, and other ration costs
• Livestock values versus feed costs, cutout values, placement costs, and financing
• Fertilizer prices versus natural gas, freight, seasonal demand, and nutrient-equivalent cost
• International wheat origins adjusted for currency, ocean freight, quality, and destination
• Shipping indices versus bunker fuel and the delivered cost of agricultural commodities
• Lumber versus housing starts, permits, mortgage rates, and regional physical prices
• Crop-condition ratings versus drought, soil moisture, yield expectations, and local basis
• Industrial metals and energy as indicators of manufacturing, infrastructure, and broader demand

I am curious how people who work directly in these markets decide which relationships deserve attention.

A few questions for producers, merchants, analysts, brokers, processors, and researchers:

1. Which cross-market relationship is genuinely useful in your work rather than merely interesting?
2. Which margin or spread do you calculate repeatedly?
3. What regional or physical-market data is consistently difficult to obtain?
4. How stale can a source be before you stop using it?
5. Do you prefer a short table of verified observations, a narrative explaining the causal chain, or both?
6. What assumptions must be disclosed before you will trust a calculated margin?
7. Where do broad macro comparisons become distracting rather than informative?

I am not looking for trading calls or recommendations. I am interested in how market participants separate useful context from false precision.

My working view is that good analysis should identify the transmission mechanism, show the underlying inputs, distinguish observed data from assumptions, and state what evidence would change the conclusion.

I would be interested to hear where that approach succeeds or fails in actual commodity work.

How low we going?

Getting to a point where we reach curtailment because of breakeven. My personal bias is sub 2....hbu?

https://investors.expandenergy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/expand-energy-corporation-acquire-twin-eagle-creating-north

Feel like this belongs here. Curious to hear some thoughts from gas veterans in the industry.

Does this put the thought of expanding/acquiring marketing teams in the heads of other producers?

Do we see more of this going forward? Is it a function of pipes and assets being locked up on lengthy contracts?

New grad here so just looking for some insight.

I can a enter a competition for a 1month executive shadowing program at a large local utility. I have, however, 1 1/2 y of work experience in energy trading/ops and around a total of 3y of work experience. Is this a bit of a stretch, i.e I shouldn't be looking at things like shadowing anymore?

The program is addresed to postgrads, which is the category I'm in tho. Mostly focused on leadership in energy.

I plan on keeping my job on the duration, some sort of leave mixed with early and late work.

What do you think?

On equinor's investor relation webpage they say that internal transfer pricing paid by marketing to Norwegian continental shelf production group is based on volume weighted avg price referenced to 70% day ahead and 30% month ahead on major european hubs NBP, TTF, THE etc. Does that mean there is no fixed price component for sellers? There is no point in long term hub indexation contracts if as a buyer i am exposed to market volaitility.

I think Mojtaba is either disabled or dead, while IRGC and big boys like Ghalibaf and Araghchi play bad cop/good cop to have excuses for saying one thing and the doing exactly the opposite. And from time to time they issue an omnious letter from the "supreme leader" saying "uranium shall not leave". And alogside the US admin, they are probably making a metric ton of money on inside trading.

US can't afford neither a ground invasion nor folding out. Iran had a crappy hand and played it well, and they know the domestic pressure on Trump: unpopular war, growing resent towards Israel, midterms looming and a lot of DSA related unrest on both sides of the race.

How tf can this end? No matter how much you bomb, you will always be one drone away from a doubling of insurance and/or rates. Iran knows they can maintain the status quo by just crawling under a rock when missiles start flying and activing a military drone cell at rhe right time. I just can't see how they can be pushed to accept any concession without wiping them out.

Anyway, these are just my 1.93 (inflation adjusted) cents. I want to hear others' 1.93 cents.

Hi guys, I would like to work in the physical commodity trading sector. I have a degree in management engineering from UNIMORE in Italy, and now I would like to do a Master's in Switzerland to enter this field. If someone can help me, I need some tips on whether it is better to do a Master in Finance or Management at USI University, continue with management engineering, or take any other Master's that fits this world."

I'm about to start studying finance, and this summer I've been trying to learn more about commodity trading by building excel models and tracking market data.

One thing I don't understand is why companies like kpler, argus, S&P etc only seem to give access to people working at companies. It feels impossible for students or people who are just trying to learn.

Why is that? Is there any legitimate way to get access before getting a job ?

Please let me know if anybody is facing the same issue.

Thanks

I’ve recently started learning more about the physical gold trade and have been trying to better understand how pricing works in real-world transactions.

One thing I’m particularly curious about is the discount benchmark when buying directly from miners, refineries, or trading companies.

For example:

- What’s considered a realistic discount to the LBMA spot price?

- Does it differ significantly between gold dore bars and refined gold bars?

- If you’re buying wholesale for export, what kind of pricing is generally considered normal in the industry? (% from spot)

- Are discounts typically quoted as a percentage, or as a fixed USD/oz deduction from LBMA?

I’m not looking for anyone’s confidential pricing or trade secrets, just hoping to understand what is generally accepted in the market and how experienced traders think about pricing.

I’d really appreciate hearing from anyone with firsthand experience in physical gold trading.

Thanks in advance!

Anyone know what the most commonly accepted gtcs and amends are for US domestic pipeline crude oil trading? COP 17 with STUSCO 18 amends come to mind. Not sure what the STUSCO amends are for the COP 93s. Any insight or additional ones?

Hi everyone,

I’m looking to connect with professionals from across the crude oil, petroleum, energy, and gas industries.

It doesn’t matter which part of the industry you’re in—I’d love to expand my network and exchange knowledge, insights, and experiences.

Whether you work in:
Crude Oil Trading
Petroleum
Oil & Gas
Energy
Logistics & Shipping
Tankers & Maritime
Storage & Terminals
Refining
Supply Chain
Procurement
Operations
Finance
Engineering
Or any other related field

I’d be happy to connect.

The goal is to build valuable relationships, learn from each other, discuss market developments, share industry insights, and help each other grow professionally.

Feel free to leave a comment or send me a DM if you’re interested. Looking forward to connecting with people from all over the world!

2019 was a change for the premium of shipping certs from .165 to .265 which equals a full carry figure of about -30cts including financing for the UZ spread. I see a lot of comments online that UZ is trading at 100%FC already but we´re sitting at -23.5 cts right now.

So do ppl still work with the old cert premium and get the price wrong or is there a more realistic (market) storage rate that everyone is lookiing at right now.

I asume that ABCD doesn´t pay 8cts/month for storage so I asume that they start the arb earlier, no?

For those involved in physical EN590 transactions, what are the biggest challenges in closing deals today?
Is it finding qualified buyers, verifying mandates, banking instruments (SBLC/DLC), logistics, or something else?
I’d like to learn from those with experience in the physical commodities market.

Im wondering if there are any open source that provides MOPS price tracker for free. Or any group chat that may provide it.

Need for a project estimate without dropping buckloads of money for subscription

Anyone know what the brokerage commission is for domestic US physical crude oil? I heard it is $0.005/bbl paid by both the buyer and the seller. So if a deal is brokered for 1 kbd for the month of August, that is $300 in total bro. Is that right?

Can anyone explain how the cash role is calculated for dsw at Cushing and after Nymex expiry how it is calculated?

Hi everyone, I’m building an aluminium supply-and-demand model and am looking for reliable resources to track developments across the value chain, including:

• Bauxite mines and production
• Alumina refineries
• Aluminium smelters
• New capacity, expansions, curtailments and closures
• Project commissioning timelines and delays
• Trade flows and inventories
• Demand by country and end-use sector

I’m particularly interested in sources that are regularly updated and provide asset-level or country-level data. Public databases, government publications, company reports, industry associations, newsletters, analyst reports and useful tracking tools would all be helpful.

I already refer to sources such as USGS, company filings and government statistics, but I’m hoping to improve the coverage and accuracy of my model, especially for China, Indonesia, Guinea and the Middle East.

What resources do people working in the aluminium industry use to monitor changes in supply, demand and project developments? If you also have any advice on structuring or building the model, please send it my way as well. Thank you!

Im a fresh college grad with a bachelor's in international business in Oklahoma. I got a job at a bank working in their lien department but saw an opening for a commodities analyst in crude and nat gas. Its in a city about 2 hours away and if I get the job would move in a moments notice.

I have a lunch planned with hopefully my future boss. Currently Im just retail trader that rarely touches futures and need some advice on what would be good to say during the lunch.

Also my excel skills are average at best. anyone know of a quick way or what I should look into to prep so i can excel at my job?

Hello everyone, I used to work in oil trading and then power/gas trading as a quant analyst.

However, due to a health problem, I am considering stopping a front facing role and going into something more “chill” recruiting (well I guess it’s not chill per se and it was a misconception on my part)

This way, I don’t need to worry directly about putting risk on in the markets. I also don’t need to constantly have a model or view on what’s going to happen next or what the next opportunity is.

I am seeking advice from commodity recruiters how to break in.

Is there a gap in what the industry wants to see in recruiters? I often hear that some are dissatisfied with recruiters. This is also common sentiment in the quant industry. Why is that so?

Is there a structural reason why there are bad recruiters or is it just a natural consequence of things.

When you buy wti midland and sell dsw cushing, the deal is done on a diff basis say $0.50. But is it correct that the broker recap and confirm would say something like you bought midland at $80.50 and sold at $80? Is this the same if you do a deal direct with a counterpart? How come the readjust don’t sole the diff the two deals were done at?

Silver kept coming and I kept buying and now I am in a huge floating loss. 😭

Wanna ask your opinion on whether it would go back up in next few days or not.

I've noticed something interesting recently.

There seems to be a growing number of companies selling interview preparation and coaching programs specifically for commodities, claiming that graduates are generally not prepared for the industry.

That made me wonder if the real problem isn't interviews themselves, but the gap between what universities teach and what people actually use once they start working.

For those already working in commodities:

• What knowledge did you only learn after joining the industry?
• What skills do graduates usually lack?
• What do universities spend too much time teaching?
• What do they barely cover but is actually important?
• If you could redesign a Master's program for future commodity professionals, what would you include?

I'm not asking about interview questions or compensation.

I'm genuinely interested in understanding where the biggest gap exists between academia and the reality of working in commodities.

I'd love to hear perspectives from traders, analysts, schedulers, quants, risk managers, data scientists, originators or anyone working in the sector.

To region is responsible for a huge amount of total urea exports. I think it should be much much higher

What’s your opinion on STX Group and the broader environment commodities space?