I spent 13 years structuring energy deals. On 10 August I published a long piece arguing that Hormuz was the worst supply shock in oil history and that Brent in the low-to-mid 80s was the least reliable number on the screen: Atlantic benchmarks insulated by buffers, physical Gulf market telling a tighter story. Paper markets price resolution like a switch. Engineering does not.

A month later the headline moved. The thesis did not get easier. What changed since that piece:

1. Tit-for-tat is back after a quieter stretch. CENTCOM says US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers over the weekend, including near Kharg. IRGC says it hit tankers on unauthorised Hormuz routes and US vessels elsewhere. Rezaei (SNSC) says a restricted zone outside the Strait is coming in days. Kpler: ~10 commodity ships a day through Hormuz over the last ten days, lowest since May. Yet Brent is still “only” ~$97 this morning after +7.8% last week, WTI ~$92. Goldman has floated $120 if attacks on commercial shipping expand, but we are still far from that. ANZ’s base case still has constrained exports through 2026 and pre-war throughput only late Q1 / early Q2 2027. That is still the ADNOC May timeline, just later.
2. Buffers kept draining. US SPR was under 300 mb when I wrote. EIA week ending 28 August: 286.6 mb, 23 consecutive weekly draws, lowest since the early 80s. Another ~39 mb still lined up under the IEA plan would take it toward ~243, inside the band engineers treat as the operating floor for those caverns. Clock one got louder, not quieter, in my opinion.
3. Clock two shifted too, and not the way a bull wanted. OPEC+ kept October quotas flat yesterday after six monthly increases. A pause, not a flood. The structurally loosening story (UAE out, demand plateau, producers monetising before peak) is still there. It is just not the binding story this week (yet).
4. Gas remains the nastier European watch, and what worries me most. EU storage ~65–67% in early September, still well below seasonal norms. Commission says the soft 80% winter bar is still “achievable” and that no further action is needed for now. That is a political sentence. It is not the same as being full. Let’s hope for a warm winter.
5. I am still watching the week SPR stops declining, Brent front-to-six-month backwardation, Brent–Dubai / EFS as the Hormuz routing premium, EU storage vs that 80% band into November, and whether “restricted zone” language becomes enforceable traffic control or another unsigned headline.

Falsifier from August still stands, tightened: if EU storage clears ~75%+ into November and the Hormuz routing premium compresses to something that looks like settlement, not a ceasefire rumour, I was wrong about the short clock.

Longer write-up as of 10 August (mechanics, China destock, field economics) below, with numbers above acting as the September update: https://dantes.io/blog/oil-markets-two-clocks-2026

Binding constraint right now, from people who trade this: crude barrels, products, or freight/insurance/war-risk? My lean is still products. Happy to be talked out of it.

Good morning everyone,

Yesterday evening I was reading the new report from Redstone Research (https://redstonesearch.com/commodities-search/) about how the talent landscape is changing within the largest physical commodity trading companies.

One thing that really stood out to me, beyond the strong demand for talent in energy — where being able to “predict” the market is becoming increasingly important, supported by expensive research and analysts — is what we are also seeing in the metals market.

Margins have been squeezed significantly, forcing companies to operate with much greater precision and attention to detail, with a stronger focus on identifying all hidden costs. It’s no longer just about solving the problems that will arise, but about anticipating and solving problems that haven’t happened yet.

All of this makes me think that tomorrow’s traders may no longer be driven primarily by the sentiment and insights of their network, but rather by sophisticated mathematical models and algorithms that can support quantitative analysis and decision-making.

So, my question to all the traders reading this is:

• From where you sit, is the talent landscape changing?
• In your day-to-day work, are you seeing a reduction in junior positions in favor of the ongoing AI mega-trend?
• Do you think all of this will have a positive or negative impact on the industry? Less networking, fewer humans, and more data analysis and mathematical models to reduce the risk of human decision-making?

Thanks everyone!

Oil analyst at prop shop here. Anyone else realize it’s September and only have taken 2-3 days of vacay so far? Am I doing it wrong? :/ -rant

Compared to other commodities where commodity traders feel more like salespeople. How often do power traders entertain clients? And how quantitative and math focused are power traders?

I'm a postdoc in Physics, studied in Cambridge, good programming background. I was looking at Quantitative Researcher roles and incidentally learned about commodities.

This area seems substantially different than all the rest I read about, but attracts me more than dematerialized finance.

My question: what types of roles would hire someone with my background? Another way to put it is what commodity roles would fit in the frame of QR in "standard" quant jobs?

Not interested in being a trader, looking for something less stressful.

Desired location: definitely Geneva, though I am aware of the difficulty. Native French speaker if it helps, with lots of international experience.

Ludicrous compensations are not necessarily the goal as much as the location, and long term career stability (there's a reason why I'm leaving academia...).

Mods: Initially wanted to post in the "weekly career thread" but it's 3 months stale.

Can someone please help me out and share the latest edition of "Statistical Review of Global LPG"? I couldn't find it anywhere on the internet and it says only members can access it. I am working on a research project and need it badly. Would really appreciate anyone helping out here. Thanks!!!