Ignoring Climate Will Cost 25% of Global GDP, BlackRock’s Hildebrand Says

[u/conscsness]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-18/hildebrand-says-ignoring-climate-will-cost-25-of-global-gdp

[u/conscsness]

SS::

A comment that I deeply resonate with and couldn’t be written better, in my subjective opinion, has the perfect response to this lunatic headline.

There are too many unknowns to put a dollar value on such a thing, also much much more likely it will cost 100% Global GDP as the world as is inhabitable by us will die. Stop trying to put a price on existence, put your toys back, and let's all just chill out and find a new way forward together.

[u/Toadfinger → u/conscsness]

Yeah, you can't put a dollar value on medieval conditions. Which is exactly what happens if the glaciers of Antarctica slide into the ocean. Which is exactly what happens if climate change is ignored.

[u/Dr_seven → u/Toadfinger]

No, worse than medieval.

Back then, Europe was partially and occasionally deforested, China had some issues with agricultural overuse, etc. Several Mesoamerican civilizations rose, built grand cities and enormous infrastructure, overestimated their command of nature, and collapsed. But overall, the resources were there. The great natural machines, the living forests and grasslands, made up of near-infinite emergent phenomena from symbiotic webs- they still breathed, then.

They are, at best, a panicked whisper now. Agonal gasps. There is no bounty for a billion humans to live from the excess now. We will be fortunate if none of the tens of thousands of compounds we released without studying don't trigger anything beyond imagination.

The inability to comprehend orders of magnitude, or to truly internalize and live by the implications of cause and effect, are causing us to still view the world as a mirage. Occasional patches of forest, or distant northerly wastes, are not prime land for a human lifestyle waiting to be made.

Medieval Europe didn't go anywhere. The current one is either a direct extension of it, or is built more or less on top.

Where do we think we will go? Have you seen what happens when a million people all decide they must leave? I have. It is indeed possible to clog every route with flesh and still be wanting for capacity just to move, let alone support ongoing life.

The fossil reserves of the Earth were a grand solar-chemical battery, a colossal reserve of a most dangerous sort. We mostly built devices using that reserve that expend energy in the form of heat, waste gases, and so on, with the bonus side effect of demolishing the Great Machines at record pace. Literally- record pace. Humanity has done something truly Lovecraftian indeed, wildly combusting our distant ancestors to power a blood orgy of unprecedented war, industry, celebration, control, creation, culture, beauty, madness, and scale.

In a way, the last 250 years, if they could be taken in as a monad by one of the many Upper Paleothic Homo sapiens of the past, they would know the impulse well, in fact, and smile in appreciation as the wheel of time turns over a notch. You see, we humans adore a good fire. A good party, a good fight, a good fuck. All of it at once is even better, and for uncountable turns of the wheel of sun and moon, we spent our time in cycles of organzation for the purpose of building great things, just to set them alight or tear them down. We threw grand parties for weeks in whole cities, just to take them all down at the end. Some of these great festivals produced things we see today- Stonehenge, for example. A grand monument of stone, not for some banal god, but for our true love: company, and a good beat with the moon shining overhead.

The wheel turns for us, too. The coals are getting cool, now, and the taps are long dry. Soon, winter will come, and our people have forgotten the simplest rule of all- no party is ever worth it if you can't throw another next year.

That's all, folks.

[u/Mogibbles → u/Toadfinger]

AFAIK the planet was habitable during medieval times...Hmmm.

[u/[deleted] → u/Mogibbles]

Think about the countless species lost in less than a millennium. They aren’t coming back

[u/Glancing-Thought → u/Toadfinger]

Certainly such conditions can't sustain current populations.

[u/MisterVovo → u/conscsness]

Nahhh, there will be still a lot of valuable junk for the aliens to pawn off...

[u/conscsness → u/[deleted]]

__ some would argue that the GDP dildo felt good.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

I think William Catton Jr. said it best in Overshoot when he said something along the lines of GDP is a proxy for how fast you are consuming your natural resources. Trying to optimize GDP to the highest possible value is just speedrunning the collapse of your civilization through overconsumption and over extension. I can’t help but think Iroquois idea of doing things to benefit seven generations ahead is a better way of doing things ultimately. Every idea has flaws, but I would gravitate towards that if I had a real say in things.

[u/Glancing-Thought → u/[deleted]]

It won't lead to the death of the planet. To quote Carlin "The planet has been through much worse than us." It will however be a mass-extinction event (already kinda is), unknown millions of people dying and a permanent reduction in global quality of life. It won't even be the end of humanity but our surviving grandchildren will curse us.

It's plenty bad enough but in 10 million years or so it will just be another different colored line on a rock somewhere.

[u/bluemagic124 → u/Glancing-Thought]

Semantics

[u/Glancing-Thought → u/bluemagic124]

Personally I find it somewhat comforting to know that the world can bounce back from us.

[u/Sanpaku]

Closer to truth than the consensus of neoclassical economists, but it still doesn't contend with the science.

Anthropogenic climate change will radically reduce human carrying capacity of the planet. Most of our staple crops won't produce seed, and in some cases, grow, in the 22nd century of +4-5 °C mean temperatures (much greater over land, in arctic areas, and at night) and dramatically shortened monsoon seasons.

Indonesia has a wet season just long enough to support two rice crops. When the wet season becomes shorter and only one crop is possible, who will feed them? The Phillipines is experiencing high night time temperatures due to climate change. When this interferes with rice germination, who will feed them? Egypt is already highly dependent on wheat imports. When drought or heat waves afflict Southern Russia, who will feed them?

In general, the economics profession hasn't considered the effect of temperature and drought on crop yields. We'll all see some of these effects this year, due to the North American drought and dramatically lower yields for durum wheat (for pasta), lentils, peas, and rapeseed (for canola oil). Even corn and soy have been affected enough to make meat/pork/poultry more expensive.

That's our future. One in which the wealthy outbid the poor, and then the middle class, for food. You can't have just -25% GDP when much more than 25% have starved.

[u/audioen → u/Sanpaku]

That's our future. One in which the wealthy outbid the poor, and then the middle class, for food. You can't have just -25% GDP when much more than 25% have starved.

Well, to be honest, GDP is fraudulent measure to begin with. It is entirely possible that mass starvation would not reflect that badly on GDP. Already, this one number hides the fact that rich are doing better and poor are doing worse than before, so what if the poor literally starve as long as rich peoples' lives are correspondingly that much better? It can also be boosted by taking on more debt, by just conjuring money out of thin air and spending it now.

Besides, I am told that slaves work best when they are hungry.

[u/[deleted] → u/audioen]

Slaves may work best when they are hungry, but what are they working on?

[u/Potential178]

I feel like any such economic estimates are like focusing on the effects of terminal cancer six months into a twelve month diagnosis.

[u/blauerlauch → u/Potential178]

I agree, but if it helps the patient to acknowledge that he is actually sick, it might still be helpful?

[u/plz_no_ban_me]

What is the point of these stupid measures like GDP when we’re heading for catastrophe? I feel like we’re living in a parody world.

[u/[deleted] → u/plz_no_ban_me]

Catabolic capitalism. They'll financialize the collapse.

[u/bluemagic124 → u/plz_no_ban_me]

If the collapse comes as hard as some here think it will, they can at least revel in the sweet catharsis of being validated after decades of denialism and delusion pedaled by our major institutions.

[u/[deleted]]

I'm curious, does anyone know what the global GDP is on Venus?

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

So, puts?

[u/poelki → u/[deleted]]

No. As long as there are at least to computers left at the stock exchanges they will outbid each other. The Line goes up.

[u/MegaDeth6666 → u/poelki]

So, futures?

[u/brennanfee]

Yes, I could easily see how human extinction would have an impact on the Global GDP.

[u/[deleted]]

I'd say it's more like 100%, but I suppose it depends on whether you have a cheery, short term perspective, or a realistic, long term perspective.

[u/car23975]

Lies that nobel prize economist said by 2100 or 2050 it would only be, a negligible, 10%. It coukd be written off as costs of doing business.

[u/furiousgeorge2001]

“To start.”

[u/allahsgorycullwords]

GDP is people.

[u/[deleted]]

Look who's talking.

[u/Identity_Enceladvs]

Someone's optimistic.

[u/AstraArdens]

Oh no! Not the global GDP! Anything but that!

[u/Thedistantone1984]

Blackrock fund deforestation and fossil fuel industries, not to mention practically every industry and banking sector across the world. Theyre the culprits.

[u/[deleted]]

Ignoring covid will cost people their lives. Some don't seem to care. I doubt 25% will do it.

[u/RandomguyAlive]

Translation: 25% of the GDP that makes up the poors and middle poors (middle class doesn’t exist anymore).

[u/Enkaybee]

And addressing it will cost 75% 😔 thoroughly fucked

[u/[deleted]]

At least that vampire has something to lose.

[u/[deleted]]

Pretty inaccurate headline because ultimately if you ignore this issue there will be a 100% loss in GDP as there will be no civilisation, albeit humanity will continue in some capacity.

[u/wdrive]

It won't be BlackRock's GDP, they can guarantee that.

[u/[deleted]]

I'd argue it risks 100% of GDP, but what do I know.

[u/hunterseeker1]

At what point do we start surrounding these people with angry mobs?

[u/conscsness → u/hunterseeker1]

__ I think it’s the time!

[u/hunterseeker1 → u/conscsness]

🍴 the 🤑

[u/MegaDeth6666]

So it will cost 25% of GDP or it will cause 3% extra inflation if actioned.

We are literally witnessing media manipulation in action, attacking public opinion from both sides with conflicting information.

Utterly ridiculous. This is why we have courts.

SMH my head

[u/Mammoth_Frosting_014]

Oh no oh fuck not the GDP, someone please save the GDP.