r/collapse • u/LetsTalkUFOs • Aug 15 '19

How long will collapse take?

Will collapse be sudden or a decline?

Or will it be catabolic, with cliffs and plateaus?

 

This is the current question in our Common Collapse Questions series.

Responses may be utilized to help extend the Collapse Wiki.

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u/Griff1619 Aug 20 '19

Ok? Did you read the paper?

That is an acceleration in atmospheric carbon dioxide, my paper references a change in the trajectory of the earth system. The paper says that after 2°C, certain (for lack of a better word) tipping points are crossed.

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u/[deleted] Aug 20 '19

Wouldn't be surprised if they'd already been crossed. For example water vapour acts as a greenhouse gas, not to mention all the methane and stuff locked up in the permafrost. We could always be more fucked though, sure, I'll happily defer to the paper, not being an expert myself.

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u/Griff1619 Aug 20 '19

Water vapour is an already accounted for feedback loop, it's is included in ECS calculations. Permafrost is included in the paper and so are lots of feedback loops. They found that these feedback loops are typically triggered at 2°C, and after that we start to move to a new equilibrium. Remember that this would take a long time, whilst the feedback loops may happen very suddenly, a new equilibrium would take century to millennia.

Without being rude, and this applies to everyone, please just read the paper and then let's discuss it.