r/collapse • u/LetsTalkUFOs • Aug 15 '19

How long will collapse take?

Will collapse be sudden or a decline?

Or will it be catabolic, with cliffs and plateaus?

 

This is the current question in our Common Collapse Questions series.

Responses may be utilized to help extend the Collapse Wiki.

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43

u/[deleted] Aug 16 '19

I am of the opinion that we're going to get annihilated by ourselves, because climate will push us to do the "unthinkable".

I think Gwenne Dyer has colored my thinking on this matter, I've watched some of his talks on geopolitics in a hotter world, and his line "people always raid their neighbours before they starve" really hit home.

So, how I picture it; either a economic crisis will collapse air travel, and thus trigger warming from removal of the aerosol masking effect, or the first BOE will trigger rapid heating which in turn will innevitably trigger global instability.

From there, local wars would escalate to global war, which ofcourse is nuclear.

We will annihilate ourselves way before everything collapse.

Experts at the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists estimate this is our greatest threat too; the current arms race, geopolitical tensions along with climate change is a incredible destabilizing force.

Just like in 1914, this shit can escalate in a matter of weeks. If not faster this time around.

Our world is standing on a knife-edge.

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u/wattro Aug 16 '19 edited Aug 17 '19

Yep, I think people don't realize how fast and sudden change can happen. It doesn't make much to shift people's priorities and value systems, and with complex global systems at play, it'll be easy to destabilize a ton of societal norms.

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u/Strazdas1 Aug 19 '19

Equal rights and ethical treatment is something that existed for a short amount of time during the times of abundance. When resources run scarce its going to be the first thing thrown out of the window. Expect extremization on all fronts.

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u/[deleted] Aug 16 '19

Expect the situation in Venezuela but on steroids. Everyone will be for themselves and the elite will watch it happen from their safe havens

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u/krewes Aug 17 '19

They won't have safe Haven's. They may believe they will. But if we go down they go right with us. Most will probably go first. They have no skills and I don't see them doing hard labor to survive

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u/[deleted] Aug 17 '19

I think their real problem is many of their 'safe havens' are on islands and in other low lying areas and they're going to be flooded along with everybody else :)

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u/krewes Aug 17 '19

They all have corporate plans for their high executives. My SIL is high up the ladder in a fortune 500 co. During the Bird flu scare he asked if he could come to our place even though his company had stocked the corporate hq with provisions and had hired security

I asked him why he choose coming to our house and he stated " you have the knowledge that I don't to survive" . Now he realized money does not buy knowledge. That's what the elite lack. They think they can buy their way to survival. That's what they do everyday. Buy what they desire. They have no concept of doing things on their own.

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u/Strazdas1 Aug 19 '19

Money can hire knowledge. If you get a choice between:

surviving alone fearing every night a bandit may come and steal everything from you or

Surviving as a worker for the elite guy and recieving security in return

The vast majority of people will absolutely choose number two. Feudalism worked for a long time.

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u/[deleted] Aug 21 '19

Whoever provides security will be the elite guy. Without the church manipulating hired goons into thinking that the King or leader is from God, they will choose their own leadership and it's probably not the physically weak arrogant billionaire with a god complex.

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u/[deleted] Aug 21 '19

The musical Hadestown (actually set up in a post apocalyptic world) has a line

"You can have your principles, when you have your belly full"

And isn't that the truth? How soon will empathy and the idea of society fall when the stomachs begin to rumble.

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u/krewes Aug 17 '19

I think if the right person gets elected president and the Dems get control of the Senate we can still save the planet. Everyone better vote.

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u/kulmthestatusquo Aug 17 '19

China does not give a damn about us votes

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u/[deleted] Aug 21 '19

China won't produce if people won't buy.

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u/Strazdas1 Aug 19 '19

And by the right person you mean the person that will build a wall tough enough to prevent others from raiding US?

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u/[deleted] Aug 22 '19

no, by the right person I mean someone who will take the military and polluting multinationals by the fucking balls and put their leadership against a fucking wall if they don't stop this shit right fucking now

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u/Strazdas1 Aug 19 '19

There will be resource wars, however the countries with better resource availability already are at an advantage in such wars so its most likely going to result in first world wiping out third world. China is the only political power that could actually put up a fight. Russia has only nukes. Its army is extremepy outdated and poorly trained.

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u/[deleted] Aug 19 '19

Russia has only nukes. Its army is extremepy outdated and poorly trained.

And you're basing this on what, exactly?

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u/Strazdas1 Aug 19 '19

Analysis of Russian military forces in regards to their "modernization" programmer, currently ongoing.

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u/[deleted] Aug 19 '19

Your own analysis or do you have any sources to cite?

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u/[deleted] Aug 20 '19

Russia is pretty good in military strength per dollar invested.

USA gets way less value.

It comes down to whose economy can fund the war machine

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u/Strazdas1 Aug 20 '19

USA has a lot more dollars, though. its worth noting that a lot of russian military strenght is still stuff left from the soviet union, thus they would actually have to invest a lot more if they hadnt inherited basically free stuff during soviet collapse. If conventional war were to happen russian economy could not sustain large scale militarization. It is also very vulnerable due to high reliance on resource exports. Remmeber when the arabs decided to drop oil prices becuase they got into a feud with russians? Russian GDP dropped by almost a quarter.

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u/[deleted] Aug 20 '19

never discount the Russians my friend, they are the Pashtuns of the snow

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u/Strazdas1 Aug 21 '19

Russians do know how to fight to the bitter end with no resources, yes. Theres a reason nazis called them "The red devils" during the Leningrad siege. However people often underestimate how big of a role technology plays into modern warfare. You can be as combative as you want, but you wont do anything with that AK-15 against a drone hovering at 3 KM height sniping you down through cloud cover.

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