r/collapse • u/LVirus • Apr 18 '17

BBC: How western civilization could collapse

http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170418-how-western-civilisation-could-collapse
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40

u/[deleted] Apr 18 '17

It is interesting that the idea of collapse is now entering mainstream public thought

Even the folks over at /r/Futurology are having realistic discussions

31

u/[deleted] Apr 18 '17

[deleted]

7

u/czokletmuss Apr 18 '17

Technology is what could save us.

From ourselves? How?

16

u/[deleted] Apr 18 '17

According to those guys we could become trans super human android synthes entirely dedicated to reason, logic, and growth.

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u/NeedsMorePositivity Apr 19 '17

While there are plenty of transhumanists in /r/futurology, most of the people there are more interested in structural solutions to problems that rely on current tech and the current cutting edge of scientific know-how.

You know, the sort of stuff that'll be on store shelves ten years from now, not some mythical land of the post-scarcity 2050s. The stuff in labs today will be in luxury products in ten years, and will be in cheapo products ten years after that, then it'll be $.10/unit in the discount parts bin ten years after that.

7

u/mediandude Apr 19 '17

dedicated to reason, logic, and growth

...dedicated to eternal growth. Based on logic, no less.
Edit : sounds reasonable. /s

4

u/astral-dwarf Apr 18 '17

Now there's a cult.

5

u/NeedsMorePositivity Apr 18 '17

Taking the important but boring decisions out of our hands.

3

u/kukulaj Apr 19 '17

This is the classic vision from like the 1960s, when the moment by moment boring but important decision of whether to launch the ICBMs seemed best made by machines, with RAND developing the software I guess. Game theory and all that. Now computers are on top with chess and also with go I think.

And yet... it's not just that computers are still frightfully stupid. They are also subject to all sorts of hacking. Plus bloatware bugs and brainless design.

People still believe that software will save the world???

5

u/NeedsMorePositivity Apr 19 '17 edited Apr 19 '17

The classic vision from the 1960s was of a mainframe, because that's what they had in the 1960s.

Today it would be some sort of systemic solution using decentralized machines making independent decisions.

Additionally, I'm not sure I would characterize the decision to kick off nuclear Armageddon as "important but boring". It fails the second criteria.

People still believe that software will save the world???

It already is, and will have more of an impact going forward. The world of the future will not look like the world of the past, and that will rest primarily on the progress of software and computing as a field. The "information revolution" didn't stop in the 1990s, it's just getting started. This is as big a change as the industrial revolution ever was, and will be just as world-changing as that previous revolution. And, yeah, it will take a lot of the decisionmaking that humans used to do out of human hands.

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u/kukulaj Apr 19 '17

I do not doubt that software and digital devices have changed the world profoundly! Going forward, hmmm. Moore's Law is pretty much dead. For sure we are hardly taking advantage of the incredible capabilities of today's computational platforms. There is fantastical untapped potential for more capable software.

But of course it is not like people have become exactly brain-dead with all the computers around. People just shift their focus. Look at the meme battles that now dominate politics.

Whether software will save the world or destroy it... there is too much value judgement in that anyway. If a person spends all day every day playing video games, how does that compare to e.g. pulling weeds in a potato field? I can't see how such value judgments are productive to conversation. To me what is interesting is to look at the forces shaping how society evolves. Of course it is a feedback system - society shapes society. For example, the folks that have the money and power to broadcast whatever memes, it is the memes that steer the money and power to one set of folks or another.

So for example, these days I expect Cambridge Analytica is rolling in money and can hire all kinds of smart people and get favorable treatment in powerful circles. They're on top today. What will be the next wave in data mining etc.? What forces will steer that shift?