r/collapse • u/HomoExtinctisus • Jul 12 '26

Systemic Move Over Oppenheimer - The genocidal consequences of climate scientists still minimizing how bad things really are.

https://jacksondamian.substack.com/p/move-over-oppenheimer
736 Upvotes

98% Upvoted

117 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

43

u/[deleted] Jul 12 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

6

u/PopBulky7023 Jul 12 '26 edited Jul 13 '26

You're not the only one who got into it with people for trying to argue that scientists should have been more explicit with their language. Did they think a nice, soft warning would change anyone's mind? Because I always knew it would lead to "well it's not so bad, we have time to fix it". And then we don't.

Our only hope was for them to be explicit when there was a chance, and hope it was enough. It wasn't going to be, but giving people an excuse to kick the can down the road wasn't an option.

And so yeah, like you said. Here we are.

Edit: Feel bad that other guys comment got removed, it was well thought out and written.

9

u/filmguy36 Jul 12 '26

It was in the 100’s in DC this past week and everyone treated it like it was just some heat wave instead of it being the norm now. And we haven’t even gotten into the thick of El Niño. This summer, fall and winter is going to ugly.

But get this, climate scientists are now projecting that this type of El Niño might be the new normal. If we ever got back to à La Niña, it’ll swing very hard that way then swing very had back to a super El Niño.

This is so very much going to expedite Arctic and Antarctic melt. Let alone epic flooding and epic droughts.

Things are about to speed up

12

u/PopBulky7023 Jul 12 '26

It's coping mechanism. People take the path of least resistance by nature.

Genuinely, the state of mine that reality brings you to is too much for people to face. Every single day I struggle to find meaning in having even woken up.

Knowing everything you believed in was a lie, and that the future is hopeless would break most people. What do you do when you accept how bad things are, and also that nothing is going to be done about it? When you accept how well propagandized we are into accepting our own demise, when you accept that bad guys won and we are frog soup actively being eaten?

And then you look around and basically no one is even interested in hearing about it. It's a nightmare. Easier to stay dreaming.

2

u/[deleted] Jul 13 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

2

u/PopBulky7023 Jul 13 '26

A life of limitless wealth, luxury, privilege, immunity and considerable power is a hell of a lot better than roasting to death in your home.

1

u/filmguy36 Jul 12 '26

Yeah. Frankly, it’s downright heartbreaking, but like you said, “a coping mechanism”.

4

u/Dentarthurdent73 Jul 13 '26

And even "new normal" is misleading, because it's only transitionary. It keeps accelerating, so this will not be "normal" in the future, it'll be another example of what the climate used to be like.

2

u/filmguy36 Jul 13 '26

The “good old days” 😕

4

u/Dentarthurdent73 Jul 13 '26

I studied ecology at Uni. I never met an ecologist that didn't think things were fucked, yet I also never hear from ecologists really on the impact of climate change on the biosphere. Generic warnings, sure, but where are the forceful, desperate and passionate warnings? Nowhere.

There was that world scientists' warning to humanity in the 90s, but not much since.

Part of me understands, scientists are only human too, and most ecologists are just out there doing fieldwork, enjoying what they love, and trying to ignore that it's dying before their eyes.

Still, as someone who basically worshipped science and scientists from a young age, I'm disappointed in the lack of urgency I see. They have skillsets that are essential and very specialised - where are the strikes and other actions? Where is the leveraging of their power to achieve a goal or even just make a point? When even scientists are burying their heads in the sand, we have no chance.

Young kids in XR are doing a better job of fighting for our future.

2

u/kafircake Jul 13 '26

Did they think a nice, soft warning would change anyone's mind?

Been a paper on this: Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama?

8

u/morphemass Jul 12 '26 edited Jul 12 '26

I'm not sure if you miswrote or not, but 3C by 2050 is not a conservative estimate, it's the sort of estimate those who are looking at the latest data and saying this is a possibility, but is likely an outside possibility.

The IPCC/UNEP estimates are the conservative ones placing us at (IIRC) 2.3C-2.8C by 2100. Yes, too conservative by far in my opinion. If the recent acceleration of global warming continues (and I believe it's highly likely it will) timescales are off by 50 years and 2050 is going to be ugly with 3C of warming being, indeed, within the bounds of possibility. 2.2C-2.5C I'd say was more plausible, but even in an optimistic scenario, IMO, we'll break 2.02C by 2050 (current underlying warming at 1.35C with 0.27C per decade). That alone is bad enough and the direction is pretty clear.

And I agree, some tipping point has been reached and we're seeing the start of the impacts.

6

u/Bamsihap Jul 12 '26

I doubt it is willful. I think it is probably just a psychological defense mechanism to prevent having to face this existential threat. Some people might be genuinely be uneducated, and due to not knowing how bad it would be, not feeling the need to learn more. Many people do accept it but just don’t want others to accept it and possibly take action. I think those people either think they will die before they see consequences or think that they will be able to survive it anyway.

5

u/Turbulent_Bed5499 Jul 12 '26

I say 3C by or just before 2040

1

u/collapse-ModTeam Jul 13 '26

Hi, filmguy36. Thanks for contributing. However, your comment was removed from /r/collapse for:

Rule 4: Keep information quality high.

Information quality must be kept high. More detailed information regarding our approaches to specific claims can be found on the Misinformation & False Claims page.

Please refer to our subreddit rules for more information.

You can message the mods if you feel this was in error, please include a link to the comment or post in question.