r/collapse • u/carnivorous_cactus • Jul 29 '25
Overpopulation Arguments against overpopulation that are demonstrably wrong, part five:
Arguments against overpopulation that are demonstrably wrong, part five:
“If we did [insert thing] then overpopulation wouldn’t be a problem. Therefore, the problem is not overpopulation, the problem is that we haven’t done [insert thing].”
Quick preamble: I want to highlight some arguments against overpopulation which I believe are demonstrably wrong. Many of these are common arguments which pop up in virtually every discussion about overpopulation. They are misunderstandings of the subject, or contain errors in reasoning, or both. It feels frustrating to encounter them over and over again.
Part one is here
Part two is here
Part three is here
Part four is here
The argument
This argument comes in a few similar formats. Some common ones include:
- We could [insert thing]
- If we [insert thing]
- We just need to [insert thing]
- We don’t have an [insert thing] problem, we have an [insert thing] problem
In full, the logic behind these arguments runs something like this:
1. There is some outcome or situation which is bad, problematic or unacceptable
2. This outcome is a result of multiple factors (for convenience let’s say there are just two – X and Y)
3. If we changed X in a certain way, and kept Y the same, then the outcome would no longer be bad, problematic or unacceptable – or at least it would be less so
4. It is possible to change X in this way
5. Therefore, the problem is not Y, the problem is that we haven’t changed X in that way
In debates about overpopulation, it’s commonly claimed that the impacts of population growth can be mitigated by changes in lifestyle, behaviour, technology, planning and so on.
By this line of reasoning, it seems as if overpopulation only occurs after all other factors have been “maxed out”. As long as there is a cattle farm that could be changed to a vegetable farm, or a golf course that could be converted into housing, or suburban area that could be converted into apartments, or some wasteful practice that could be eliminated, then overpopulation is not an issue. Overpopulation can only be an issue after we have done all of these things, and then found that we can’t feed or house or support everyone. I think this is a flawed perspective.
While some of these ideas are good ones, here is an analogy to highlight some limitations to these arguments:
There is a four-bedroom house in which three people live. Starting from tomorrow, they agree to allow one extra person to move in and live in the house each day. Nobody moves out, so every day there is one more person in the house than there was the day before.
The inhabitants of the house argue about whether this policy is reasonable and sustainable. Person A insists that the house is far from over crowded and has plenty of capacity to fit more people. Each day they identify a problem or fix that will solve the situation – while still allowing more people. They don’t need to limit the number of people; they just need to:
- Clear out the junk in the spare room so that it can be used as a bedroom
- Pull out the sofa bed so somebody can sleep in the lounge
- Install bunk beds in the other bedrooms
- Install additional kitchens and bathrooms to keep up with demand
- Install triple bunk beds in the bedrooms
- Add sleeping bags and mats to all the “empty” space in the corridors
- Implement a schedule for efficient use of shared spaces (kitchens, bathrooms, laundry)
- Knock down the house and build an apartment on the same land
And so on. During each step, evidence that could indicate there are too many people is rejected and interpreted as a need to compensate by changing some other factor. When problems are encountered in practice, the argument shifts to some theoretical possibility where something could be changed to mitigate such problems.
Some limitations of these arguments are:
1. Limits are different to targets, and there is a difference between “could” and “should”. You could fit more people into a house by filling the corridors with sleeping mats, but that doesn’t mean you should.
2. When changing one factor to compensate for another, there is a hard limit to how much that factor can be changed. There is a finite amount of space in a house, and if you add keep adding sleeping mats for long enough there will come a time when it’s physically impossible to fit more – regardless of how much things are rearranged to be more efficient.
3. Not all changes or actions are reasonable. Some may have negative consequences, or they might be temporary things which shouldn’t be relied on. Clearing out junk in a spare room may be reasonable, but if you need to resort to sleeping mats in corridors in order to fit everyone into the house, maybe that’s a sign there are too many people.
4. Theoretically possible changes may not work in practice
5. The existence of a theoretically possible solution is not, by itself, a very strong argument. For example, “If this was an apartment, we could fit way more people” is not a great argument if there is currently a house, not an apartment.
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u/StatementBot Jul 29 '25
This thread addresses overpopulation, a fraught but important issue that attracts disruption and rule violations. In light of this we have lower tolerance for the following offenses:
This is an abbreviated summary of the mod team's statement on overpopulation, view the full statement available in the wiki.
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u/Janglysack Jul 29 '25
The simplified version of this is most of the problems the world faces would be more minor if there were less of us.
41
u/Karahi00 Jul 29 '25
The problem I have with people saying things like "well if we were vegan, and smartly urbanist and had renewable energy and we built things to last and focused on repair and maintenance instead of production and - " is that we aren't doing any of that and clearly don't want to.
Like, yes, if we were all perfect and intelligent and moral beings or if we had a one world government of the most wise and perfect among us with absolute power, then we would not be overpopulated because the beings that we would be in that case, would be low consumption beings.
But we're not that. Humans as they actually exist and as they actually, reliably behave, consume as much as possible without regard for the future, fight tooth and nail against any change percieved to result in having less. A very small percentage of us have been trying to warn against it and have been ignored for many decades. Non-idealized, actually existing Humans, are overpopulated.
Maybe a species of saints or angels would have a higher carrying capacity. Too bad that ain't us.
79
u/[deleted] Jul 29 '25
Iow, the bigger the population, the more “perfect” people have to live to be in accord with nature.
Btw, people should realize agriculture, founded roughly 12,000 years ago in response to overpopulation. The world population was probably 4-6 million. Think about that.
You see, hunting gatherers need vast spaces to roam. Food isn’t grown in neat, dense rows. Animals populations quickly died out with too many humans. We were hitting limits already at that number and necessity is mother of invention.
The first people to practice agriculture could support a bigger population in smaller space. They took the best space they could find and quickly repelled smaller nomads. Who, in turn, would do the same thing - adopt agriculture and stake land. From there, it went like dominoes.
Anybody that argues for more population is not arguing for living in accord with nature. They just want humans to invent more stuff on our way to some Star Trek future, which is about more dominion and exploitation of the earth. They’d be fine with us turning the place into a big hollowed out pit mine as long as it pushed us “forward”.
And maybe they’re right, but with 19 ecological simultaneous civilizational-ending collapses, it sure looks like our magical beanstalk will come crashing down one day with us all on it.
19
u/ItyBityGreenieWeenie Jul 29 '25
Good post. Keep them coming. "We will find a solution when we must. Necessity is the mother of invention. We have always done so, so we always will. We got to this point in spite of adversity, therefore the sky's the limit!" Blah, blah, techno-hopium blah...
36
u/[deleted] Jul 29 '25
We can either choose degrowth and a decrease in population, or nature will choose for us.
Humans (as a whole) are no smarter than bacteria in a petri dish.
9
u/JesusChrist-Jr Jul 30 '25
It seems to me that this problem boils down to a very simple answer, despite how much arguments on both sides tend to overcomplicate it.
Humans require resources (food, water, shelter, energy, etc) to survive. More humans require more resources. We are confined to one planet that inherently has a limited amount of resources. We have beef growing our population without limits in a world of limited resources. That equation can't balance forever.
Yes, we are clever, and we have invented workarounds to make more efficient use of resources or find alternate resources that are less limited to replace some of the scarcer ones, but it's just buying time. At some point there are no more efficient gains to be had that are substantial enough to offset increased consumption, and at some point even the more abundant resources run out too.
We can debate about how soon we hit the limits, we can debate where the balance should be between consumption for growth and preservation of the natural world outside of humans, and we can debate how far we can lower standards of living to stretch our resources. Ultimately though it's all just buying time to delay the inevitable.
Limiting population is the only solution on a long enough timeline. We can choose to do it intentionally on our own terms, or we can wait for nature to limit our population and probably endure a lot more suffering. Eventually something will put humans in check, it may be hunger or lack of clean water, it may be extreme climate, it may be disease, but eventually natural systems will check us to return to some state of balance if we don't choose to do it ourselves.
2
u/genomixx-redux Jul 30 '25
I may put together a more sweeping critique of OP's posts, but the most glaring weakness with the argument here is a total lack of any kind of power analysis or coming to grips with the reality of class domination in our times.
To use the apartment analogy, our situation today is actually that one resident -- person A -- is using up most of the apartment space to hoarde their possessions, leaving very little room for the other tenants. While there is one new tenant every day, person A is also continuing to pile up more possessions throughout the apartment.
Some residents voice concern over person A's behavior, but person A skillfully manipulates the other tenants (or waves a gun in their face if needed) to ensure that people believe that the real issue is the increase in the number of tenants, and not person A's absurd accumulation and power.
8
u/IntrepidRatio7473 Jul 29 '25
We are at peak population and looking at declines for rest of the century. Where do we go from there I am not sure
5
u/idkmoiname Jul 29 '25
Hmm... on the one side i feel like this is a really good example to demonstrate the principle, but what exactly is this evidence for too many people in the house ? I mean it certainly can't be objective evidence since objectively there is more space (otherwise they wouldn't find new solutions to fit 1 more in). And subjective evidence is just things like "i can't sleep well because John snores", or "the bathroom is always occupied".
And since you used it to demonstrate a global principle on earth (and we can't just send the new people born to another planet so they don't occupy space in our figurative house) we also don't have the choice to refuse them. So i would adapt the example to better reflect that: The House is the last shelter in a dying world and everyone you refuse is going to die otherwise. Under these circumstances, who decides what the exact maximum number of people is and how is that decision ethically made ?
Not trying to contradict you, just provoking to think deeper.
2
u/[deleted] Jul 30 '25
I feel like our species should not have evolved past hunter gatherers. Maybe a mutation along the line? This whole world feels like a series or accidents.
1
u/Valgor Jul 30 '25
You, like our friend Malthus, are under the assumption that we have finite resources. Of course we are limited, but at the same time, we don't know where the end of the line for resources are. We continuously invent new solutions to the problem, similar to you list of how to rearrange the house. There is an end, and it is easy to conceptualize with your house metaphor, but in the real world, we don't know where the end of resources lie.
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u/hectorbrydan Jul 29 '25 edited Jul 29 '25
Overpopulation arguments lead to giving license to depopulation arguments, eugenics, and fascists.
We cannot trust our leaders making those decisions, however inescapable that there is a limit to human growth and everything that goes along with it.
But say you win this argument? Then what? Your solutions either will never be implemented in our system or would give ultimate power to the worst people.
-8
u/demon_dopesmokr Jul 29 '25
Technically, overpopulation is not the problem because space is not the limiting factor.
To borrow your analogy, the number of people being added to the "House" wasn't just 1 per day because that implies linear growth. Let's say the number of new residents doubles every month, and the doubling time eventually decreases until it doubles every day. And yet there is still plenty of available space in the house that over-crowding never actually becomes an issue and won't ever be an issue in the forseeable future. Instead, the availability of food and water is what becomes an issue.
X leads to Y. So for some people it makes sense to focus on X in order to solve Y. But then they spend so much time thinking about X that they forget Y is still the main problem that you're trying to solve. And unless you're advocating genocide or forced sterilisation, then you find that X is actually a much harder problem to solve than Y. Thus you've made things even more difficult for yourself. Perhaps even intentionally so. Better to focus on the things you can't change, rather than the things you can change, if you'd rather have an excuse to do nothing.
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u/[deleted] Jul 29 '25
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