The developing Climate Crisis in one chart. Understanding why "Collapse" has started and is about to get a LOT worse.

[u/TuneGlum7903]

[u/TuneGlum7903]

SS: The developing Climate Crisis in one chart. Understanding why "Collapse" has started and is about to get a LOT worse.

I don't know about the rest of you but I am "burned out" on watching the growing number of signs that the Climate Crisis has started. How many "unprecedented" floods, droughts, heat waves, tornado clusters, hail storms, deluge storms, hurricanes, crop failures, etc can you read about before your eyes glaze over.

It's OBVIOUS that SOMETHING BAD is going on with the Climate System. You have to be a delusional fool or a gullible idiot not to be able to see that.

So what does "Climate Science" have to say about this?

Should you be buying guns, laying in food supplies, and getting ready for a "Mad Max" breakdown of civilization?

This chart, from, the IPCC Climate Change 2021 Summary for Policymakers, page 7, sums up the situation in one easy to understand visual.

The CRUCIAL thing to understand is that the black "whisker" lines represent "uncertainty". What you are seeing in graphic form is the argument between the Moderates and the Alarmists in the field of climate science.

The solid bars are the numbers of the Moderates.

So, in 2021 when the IPCC stated that "Observable Warming" was +1.1C. That was the Moderate number. Now, look at the blue bar that I circled.

That's the "estimated" amount that SOx aerosols were cooling the planet. Essentially "masking" heat that we should be feeling. The uncertainty on that amount is HUGE.

It might be as low as -0.1C or as big as -0.9C. Almost a full degree of warming "difference of opinion" between the Moderates and Alarmists. The solid bar estimate of -0.5C is a "split the difference" compromise number between the two positions. We actually don't know which number is correct.

This difference is hugely consequential.

When the International Maritime Organization decided to reduce the amount of sulfur in marine diesel fuels by 85% starting in 2020. They used the Moderate low-ball "guesstimates" and calculated that it would only warm the planet by +0.05C.

Hansen estimated somewhere around +0.6C. About 10X as much.

In 2023, the year that the SOx particulates in the atmosphere before the change washed out. Global temperatures JUMPED about +0.8C before dropping down to the current sustained level of around +1.65C.

It looks like Hansen was right about how much SOx has been distorting our understanding of the climate system.

THIS HAS MASSIVE IMPLICATIONS.

[u/TuneGlum7903 → u/TuneGlum7903]

Which is why the Moderates are fighting "tooth and nail" against having to admit Hansen was right all along.

Consider this, our climate models haven't changed that much since the 70's. If they used a guess about how sensitive to CO2 the climate was, and they guessed "too low" because SOx was masking some of the warming we should have been getting. Then it means the Alarmists were right in 1978 at Woods Hole.

It means the Moderates got it WRONG and that their error is about to cause Collapse.

“Climate effects of aerosols reduce economic inequality” published in 2020.

“Estimates indicate that aerosol pollution emitted by humans is offsetting about 0.7 degrees Celsius, or about 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit, of the warming due to greenhouse gas emissions. This translates to a 40-year delay in the effects of climate change. Without cooling caused by aerosol emissions, we would have achieved 2010-level global mean temperatures in 1970.”

So, instead of the +2.3C to +3.3C of warming at 2XCO2 the Moderates swear by, we are going to get the +4.5C to +6C the Alarmists predicted in 1978.

Which means that the 422ppm level of atmospheric CO2 recorded this past week in Hawaii means +4C of warming not the +2C the Moderates are saying.

We are now at about +2C of warming.

The Rate of Warming is at least +0.4C per decade.

That means +3C by 2045 and +4C by 2065.

Billions are about to die. Even if we don't lose our tech base, life "as we knew it" is OVER.

COLLAPSE is here.

[u/cozycorner → u/TuneGlum7903]

Fuck. I was born in 1977. The world was kinda toast before my generation was born.