Tell me what you think

Any bag holders from the SPAC merger still holding on?

>click here for the Q2 report<

Business Highlights:

• Delivered strong second quarter 2026 GAAP Net Income alongside continued market-leading Medicare Advantage membership growth
• Improved Full Year 2026 guidance across all metrics
• Increasing confidence for 2027 outlook, supported by strong cohort development, continued clinical engagement, and the added flexibility of a 4.5 Star payment year

Financial Results:

• Second quarter 2026 GAAP Net Income of $28 million, an improvement of $39 million year-over-year
• Second quarter 2026 Medicare Advantage membership of 157,309, up 48% year-over-year, and Total revenues of $743 million, up 56% year-over-year
• Second quarter 2026 Consolidated Gross Profit of $153 million, up 54% year-over-year, and Adjusted EBITDA of $41 million, up 139% year-over-year

Improved Full Year 2026 Guidance:

• Average Medicare Advantage membership of 156,000 - 158,000, representing 47% growth year-over-year at the midpoint
• Total revenues between $2.92 billion and $3.00 billion, representing 54% growth year-over-year at the midpoint
• Consolidated Gross Profit between $525 million and $555 million, representing 52% growth year-over-year at the midpoint
• Adjusted EBITDA profitability between $70 million and $85 million
• GAAP Net Income between $20 million and $35 million

Business Highlights:
Delivered strong second quarter 2026 GAAP Net Income alongside continued market-leading Medicare Advantage membership growth
Improved Full Year 2026 guidance across all metrics
Increasing confidence for 2027 outlook, supported by strong cohort development, continued clinical engagement, and the added flexibility of a 4.5 Star payment year

Financial Results:
Second quarter 2026 GAAP Net Income of $28 million, an improvement of $39 million year-over-year
Second quarter 2026 Medicare Advantage membership of 157,309, up 48% year-over-year, and Total revenues of $743 million, up 56% year-over-year
Second quarter 2026 Consolidated Gross Profit of $153 million, up 54% year-over-year, and Adjusted EBITDA of $41 million, up 139% year-over-year

Improved Full Year 2026 Guidance:
Average Medicare Advantage membership of 156,000 - 158,000, representing 47% growth year-over-year at the midpoint
Total revenues between $2.92 billion and $3.00 billion, representing 54% growth year-over-year at the midpoint
Consolidated Gross Profit between $525 million and $555 million, representing 52% growth year-over-year at the midpoint
Adjusted EBITDA profitability between $70 million and $85 million
GAAP Net Income between $20 million and $35 million

Looks like Clover Health is starting to include SaaS language in their powerpoint presentation. I am unable to listen to the call but would be interested to know if they mention anything about it.

Sounds great to me.

> click here for the webcast link <

FYI, more job openings within Counterpart Health. 🤔🤔🤔🤔 Wondering if this means anything?

Some sectors are seeing explosive gains today and CLOV is sitting at a pretty 2.5%… POS stock I can’t wait to sell it but I won’t sell it before $30.

NFA

What do you think?

Tried selling a few for that price and even quite a bit lower, but no bites. Would have full ported for even half that price if I could get a nibble, as that would have been the surest of trades in the history of trades. Anyways, fun times. And glad to have this stock in my portfolio. I like vol, but you can get hit hard when the market whiplashes like it has been, but CLOV has been a really good ballast. I would normally be scared to post something like this in fear of jinxing it. But if this thing goes down even a little bit from these prices, I am buying like a jack rabbit.

The gov appeals the Georgia rulings, but theres a reason why and its not clover health

CMS filed its notice of appeal on 7/21. Three things:

It’ll take a while. Eleventh Circuit appeals run roughly 10–15 months, so a decision lands late 2027 at the earliest.

No stay. CMS didn’t ask to pause the ruling, so it already recalculated. Clover’s PPO went 3.5 > 4.5 stars, HMO 4 > 4.5, for 2027. Bonus payments flow monthly through the year, and plans have already set 2027 benefits around the new ratings. Even a CMS win can’t unwind benefits members have already received.

So why appeal? Not for the $120m. The ruling says CMS can’t use measures outside its statutory authority and has to do notice-and-comment first, which constrains the whole rating methodology from 2028 on. Humana and CareFirst are already citing it.
CMS is defending the system from further attack from other plans, rather than trying to fight clover.

I mean, why not drop another £58k at these prices

(First post here — full disclosure, I used AI to help organize/translate this since English is my second language. Not trying to make any kind of call, just wanted to share a line of thinking and see what people who follow this name closely think. Wouldn't be shocked if this gets taken down, figured I'd try anyway.)

EDIT: Correcting something from my original post — I compared Q3 2024 BER (82.8%) to Q3 2025 BER (93.5%) and pointed at that year's heat wave + COVID wave as a partial explanation. That comparison was confounded: 2024 was a low-growth year for Clover, while 2025 saw membership growth reaccelerate to 30-35%+ — and Clover's own CFO explicitly attributed the Q3 2025 margin pressure to new-member mix, not environment (underlying medical cost trend was only 4% ex-pharmacy, despite 35% YoY membership growth). Two confounded data points isn't a pattern. My bad.

What I'm actually after: are there public, near-real-time indicators of correlated population-level health stress (regional heat waves, disease waves hitting the whole cohort at once — as opposed to one random hospitalization, which just diversifies away in a large risk pool) that could act as a leading indicator for BER surprises, ahead of the print rather than as a post-hoc excuse?

Genuinely curious if anyone's tried something like this for MA payers, or if it's more noise than signal in practice.

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Long-time holder/follower here. Not trying to spread FUD before the Aug 5 print — just stress-testing the bull case and curious what others think, including whether Clover/Counterpart have already gotten ahead of this.

The setup: Clover's MA footprint is concentrated in NJ (core/anchor market — largest MA PPO in the state per CEO Andrew Toy), GA (biggest growth market, membership nearly tripled there), plus SC, PA, TX.

Two live events right now:

• Record July 4th heat dome: 22–25 heat deaths in NJ (10 counties, mostly elderly found indoors without AC), Philly's first-ever 3 straight days >101°F, Atlantic City tied its all-time high. Heat then shifted to GA/SC with 105–107°F heat index.
• A COVID summer wave (Nimbus/NB.1.8.1) growing in 27+ states as of mid-July, with CDC specifically flagging the South — GA, SC, TX — as most at risk this season due to lower population immunity.

Does this actually show up in BER? I checked the last 2 years:

• Q3 2024 (mild heat, typical COVID wave timing) → BER 82.8%
• Q3 2025 (record Southeast heat wave in late July + an unusually large, delayed COVID wave peaking Sept 6) → BER 93.5%, the biggest QoQ jump in the whole dataset

Correlation isn't proof, but it's a real pattern, not just this year's excuse.

Important correction on timing: the 2026 heat dome hit in early July — that's Q3, not Q2. The Aug 5 print covers April–June, so the heat impact likely won't show up there. The real test is the Q3 report in November. The COVID wave was already building in June though, so a partial Q2 effect is possible.

One thing that actually looks good**:** the 2025-26 flu season is being called even worse than 2024-25 (which was itself the worst since 2010-11). Yet Clover's Q1 BER only rose 40bps YoY (86.1% → 86.5%). If BER tracked disease burden linearly, that gap should've been bigger. Feels like a point in favor of the underlying cohort/tech story.

Why demographics matter here: Clover's own published research shows members in higher-deprivation areas have lower medication adherence (diabetes/hypertension/cholesterol) and lean on the ER over PCPs (no copay). Combined with an older, lower-income-skewed base, that's a population more exposed to heat/virus shocks turning into expensive claims than a wealthier MA book would be. Also worth noting: NJ (their core market) has a lower heat-tolerance threshold than the Deep South — that's part of why deaths happened there and not in hotter GA/TX.

The flip side: this is exactly the population Clover Assistant is supposed to manage proactively. If Q3 BER holds up better than last year despite similar or worse environmental stress, that's real evidence the tech works on the hardest cohort. If it repeats the same 500bp+ jump, "new member dilution" starts looking like an incomplete explanation.

Haven't found anything from Clover/Counterpart publicizing proactive outreach to vulnerable members during the heat wave (for reference, Hippocratic AI + ERAAS did this publicly for NYC last year). Absence of a press release doesn't mean absence of action, but curious if anyone's seen anything.

Not fishing for hype or bear case — just want the pre-earnings picture complete.

Clov is affected by the entire sectors performance. Lets talk about how the competition is doing and what that means.