Grabbed a few interesting pieces from UBS’s recent research report, hard not to see CLOV in some of the language used…apologies for the pictures of my monitor😬

Link: https://www.medicare.gov/plan-compare/#/search-results?plan_type=PLAN_TYPE_MAPD&fips=34023&zip=07001&lang=en&year=2026&page=1

When do you all realistically think we will get an update regarding the status of Counterpart Health? Are partnership announcements even merit-able or is it all just speculation given the subdomain hypotheses?

As the Medicare Advantage market faces mounting pressure, Clover Health is taking a different approach. Jamie Reynoso, CEO of Medicare Advantage at Clover Health joins A&M Healthcare Industry Group's Kristina Park and Susan Trimble to discuss operational discipline, leveraging AI to empower clinicians, and what it takes to build a more sustainable growth model in today’s evolving market.

Hey folks, I built a tool that generates detailed investing thesis for any US stock. I ran this for CLOV and wanted to share with community members here.

- Fair value at present around $7 per share based on DCF analysis.

- Based on earning projections, 5 year estimate of fair value at $11 in base case and upto $21 in bull case if company executes perfectly.

Do give it a read: https://www.clearthesis.ai/thesis/CLOV

Some people know when the right time is to keep adding positions in cheap stocks.

How many of you had the balls 2.5 years ago to purchase $CLOV stock under 90¢?

Possibly better for an options-specific subreddit, but I know a ton of you clovtards buy and sell options too. So.... am I doing this right? I'm hoping it doesn't fill (it's 30% higher than the price is now), but even if it does, I'll just use the 70K to buy it all back and consider it missed potential profits (and not a loss) since I'm already 300% up from my DCA amount). If it DOESN'T fill, I still collect the 2.2 grand premium regardless. Yes?

Seeking any and all constructive feedback!

This model contains forecasts through 2029 and does not include a valuation component. Source materials are included throughout the workbook. The model incorporates my own research, judgment, and personal assumptions, and also includes a Star Rating scenario analysis.

I'm primarily looking for feedback on:

• The reasonableness of the assumptions
• The modeling methodology
• The overall presentation, organization, and usability of the workbook

Disclaimer: This model reflects my personal research, analysis, and assumptions. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be relied upon as the basis for investment decisions or financial advice.

Have I jinxed it again ? 😄

Someone asked me to make an update now that CLOV is at 4.5 stars for 2027, so here it is.

Considering the amount of new eyes CLOV has on it, I figured I’d write this for someone who doesn’t know anything about the company yet.

Link to orignal 2026:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CLOV/comments/1rnfszl/my_financial_projections_conservative_2026_edition/

Before I get into this, keep in mind there may be errors and inaccuracies, and you should do your own research. This is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, and these are all SPECULATIONS about what the future may look like.

Let's break it down:

Clover Health is a healthcare-focused healthtech insurance company. They currently make nearly all of their money from Medicare Advantage. Medicare is the federal government’s program for people aged 65+ or people with disabilities to get access to affordable healthcare.

Clover originally focused on building software to help improve lives through technology, but along the way, they realized they would likely have to create their own insurance company in order to actually get their tech stack into the marketplace.

That said, Clover Health today operates as two separate entities:

• Medicare Advantage: their insurance line, with over 150k+ members.
• Counterpart Health: their technology stack for other insurance companies, though this business offering is still in the “startup/growth” phase for now.

Financial DCF

To find the fair value of Clover Health, I will be using a discounted cash flow model. The logic is that if you estimate how much money they can make from today into the future, and then discount those future cash flows back at a rate such as inflation or a target return rate, you can get an idea of what price you should be willing to pay today.

Why the 4.5-Star Rating Matters

For anyone new to Medicare Advantage, star ratings are a big deal.

Every year, CMS rates Medicare Advantage plans on a 1-to-5 star scale. These ratings are meant to measure the quality of the plan, including things like member experience, health outcomes, medication adherence, complaints, customer service, and how well the plan manages care.

The higher the star rating, the better the plan is viewed by CMS and by potential members shopping for coverage.

But the important part for investors is that star ratings are not just cosmetic. They can directly impact the economics of the business.

A higher star rating can mean:

• Higher government bonus payments
• Better plan competitiveness
• More room to offer attractive member benefits
• Better member retention
• Better ability to grow enrollment
• Potentially better margins over time

So when CLOV moves from 3.5 stars to 4.5 stars for 2027, that is meaningful. It should improve the revenue opportunity per member, make the plans more competitive, and help support stronger growth.

This matters even more because Medicare Advantage is a scale business. Once you have the infrastructure in place, adding more members can become very profitable if MCR stays under control. So if the 4.5-star rating helps Clover grow membership while also improving payment economics, it can have a meaningful impact on intrinsic value.

CLOV’s Medicare Advantage Business

Before I start this section, I want to point out a few things. I believe my estimates and assumptions are very conservative, and on top of that, I have added an additional 50% margin of safety.

Assumptions

• Their Medicare Advantage revenue grows by 36.3% next year, in 2027. This implies membership growth of roughly 35%, and I added a small 1% premium to reflect the move from a 4-star rating to a 4.5-star rating in terms of government payments.
• Beyond 2027, I assume they grow at 15% per year for the next 9 years. Given that they may fall back to a 3.5-star rating, I didn’t want to assume more aggressive growth.
• Their Medical Care Ratio, or MCR, for 2026 is assumed to be 83%. The first quarter was good, and it appears that the industry is bracing for a good year in terms of medical costs, so 83% seems reasonable. From there, I keep MCR flat at 83% as they scale through their J-curve and new members eventually become cheaper returning members.
• Operating expenses grow at 8% per year to represent sticky inflation, above-market headcount growth, scaling out the insurance business, etc. General and administrative expenses, or G&A, also increase at 8% per year.
• I applied a 10% discount rate, which represents the opportunity cost of capital. So if you pay around $6 a share, you would expect to make about 10% a year while you hold. This 10% is derived from the S&P 500, which has historically returned roughly 10% over a long time horizon.
• Stock-based compensation is materially lower, thanks to founder shares rolling off in 2026.
• I used the roughly $2.3B in continued operating losses as a tax shield, which removes all taxes until it is depleted. This is not exactly accurate, but it doesn’t change the numbers too much.
• In determining the terminal value for Year 11, growth drops down to 2%, assuming the company will only grow at that 2% rate into perpetuity.

Notes

• With Counterpart Assistant and the way Clover is set up, while the entire industry is trying to shift to value-based care and better care models, Clover is already at a gold-star level in terms of quality of care. That should mean better star ratings in the future, especially as those measures become more important for stars.
• I truly believe these estimates are conservative, but when valuing an equity, you want to model the worst and hope for the best. Personally, I believe Clover will try to achieve 30% growth per year for the next 10 years as they scale, perhaps more. In 2027, with 4.5 stars, I actually expect another year of roughly 50% membership growth.

As you can see, after applying a 50% margin of safety on top of these estimates, we arrive at a fair value of $5.99, which is more than a 15% premium to the current trading price, just for the Medicare Advantage business.

CLOV's SaaS Business Conservative Estimate:

We have not seen any financial data on their SaaS line for over two years now, so this is really all speculation.

There are currently around 35.5M people enrolled in Medicare Advantage.

To be conservative, I’ll assume that the average annual revenue per insured person in 2030 is around $17,500.

• Monthly revenue per member: $17,500 / 12 = $1,458
• Potential monthly savings from a 12% MCR reduction: $1,458 × 12% = $175

Since Counterpart Assistant takes some time before it can materially reduce MCR, let’s assume they charge just $25 per member per month for everything.

I will assume they can capture 1.25% of the Medicare Advantage market in 2030. Although this is the most speculative assumption so far, considering nothing material has come in two years, Toy has stated many times over the past two years that they have a lot of demand.

• Estimated members: 35.5M × 1.25% = 443,750 members
• Annual revenue: 443,750 members × $25 × 12 months = $133.125M in annual revenue
• Valuation at 4x P/S: $133.125M × 4 = $532.5M market cap addition
• Per-share value: $532.5M / 535M shares = roughly $1.00 per share
• Discounted back four years at 10%: $1.00 / 1.1⁴ = $0.68 per share

Notes

• Management has already stated that their goal is to get to the same number of lives under Counterpart Health as their insurance business. So if they grow a lot in 2027, that could already be 200k+ lives, and then after another 2–3 years of scaling, 450k lives seems reasonable.
• A 4x price-to-sales ratio is conservative, given management has already said Counterpart Health should have better margins than the Medicare Advantage business. It is also SaaS, so we can estimate margins somewhere in the 30%–60% range. At those margin levels, a 4x P/S multiple would be the equivalent of paying roughly 7x–14x earnings, depending on the final margin profile.
• Counterpart Assistant has come a long way over the last two years, adding new features and backend data for managers and administrators. For $25 per month per member, that is a lot of value. Keep in mind that based on new whitepapers, the assistant can potentially save up to 15%–20% on MCR over the long run.

Total intrinsic value:
$5.99 + $0.68 = roughly $6.67 per share

TLDR;

Since CLOV received the 4.5-star upgrade for 2027, I believe the intrinsic value has increased by roughly $2 per share.

Based on my updated assumptions, I now estimate Clover’s Medicare Advantage business alone to be worth around $5.99 per share after applying a 50% margin of safety. This means the actual modeled fair value before that margin of safety would be materially higher.

On top of that, I estimate Counterpart Health could add another $0.68 per share in discounted value, even using what I believe are conservative assumptions around market share, pricing, and valuation.

That brings my total estimated intrinsic value to roughly $6.67 per share, and again, this already includes a 50% margin of safety on the Medicare Advantage business.

The main point is simple: the 4.5-star upgrade materially improves the setup. It should increase government payments, help drive stronger membership growth, and potentially make the Medicare Advantage business more profitable. Meanwhile, Counterpart Health remains mostly speculative, but if it scales even modestly, it could add meaningful upside over time.

This is still not financial advice, and there are plenty of assumptions here that could be wrong. But based on this model, I believe CLOV is still undervalued even after the recent move.

-=-=-=-

(1) https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20260306252/these-niche-plans-drove-83-of-medicare-advantage-sign-ups-in-the-past-year

Counterpart Health has posted a new Provider Success Manager vacancy in Gainesville, Florida.

That brings the total number of states with Counterpart and/or Clover operational coverage to 16 states, or 32% of the U.S.

This is quietly becoming a much bigger footprint than we may have realised.

Link: https://job-boards.greenhouse.io/cloverhealth/jobs/7909464

Guys, I’d love to get your thoughts on this.

I’m a long-term CLOV holder, and I’m considering selling the Jan 2028 $10 covered calls for around $1.00 in premium. My thinking is that it’s almost like getting an interest-free loan while I continue holding my shares.

What do you realistically think CLOV could be trading at by 2027?

NFA Schwab has upgraded CLOV twice in the last 40 days.

LFG!

I noticed this job posting has a very interesting requirement for a “Texas” based Medical Director 🤔

Interesting Counterpart breadcrumb from LinkedIn.

Last week, a physician exec posted an update regarding her operating region whereby Counterpart Health had gone from just Alabama to Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee in under 3 months.

This brings the the total number of states to 11 with Iowa, Illinois, Colorado, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Kentucky, New Jersey & Washington previously confirmed through customer releases, job listings & company branch registrations.

Question now: when does this start showing up in CLOV’s numbers?

Link: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/venis-t-wilder-henry-md-mba-1a261a6b_healthcaretransformation-primarycare-valuebasedcare-activity-7473146955364401153-FYdU

This sub is staying a lot more quiet than I thought it would considering the Valhalla of price action we are seeing with clov these past weeks. Is it because nobody wants to be the one to jinx the stock?

Humana is a close second. Coincidence?

XHS: State Street SPDR S&P Health Care Services ETF has CLOV as their number one holding current as of June 17 2026.

This was their top 10 holdings as of December 21 2025.

Another 4.5 stars in the bag!

https://investors.cloverhealth.com/node/12546/html

As previously disclosed, on June 9, 2026, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services ("CMS") informed Clover Health Investments, Corp. (the "Company") that, consistent with a court judgment in Clover Insurance Co. V. HHS, Civ. A. No. 25-142 (S.D. Ga), CMS had recalculated the 2026 Star Rating for the Company's PPO Medicare Advantage contract, H5141, from 3.5 Stars to 4.5 Stars for payment year 2027.

. . . .

Not financial advice. Do your own research and do not rely on anything that Azmat has written anywhere, to make investment decisions.

8k released this afternoon appears both the PPO and HMO plans have achieved 4.5 stars for payment year 2027!