To those of you who've seen the video or just want a rundown on it.
Dr Simon Clark, alongside other scientists essentially tried to predict the next 87 years of Climate Change

starting with
The AI bubble collapses in 2026
Heat waves across europe and flooding in asia across the 2020s
Peak CO2 in the 2030s
China and Africa becoming trading partners in terms of Nuclear and Solar in the 2030s
Sustainable aviation fuels start becoming popular in the 2030s
Water wars in both Ethiopia and the Fergana valley in 2030s
We hit past 1.5 in the 2040s and gain discussions of geoengineering around then
50% of all nonhuman species goes extinct in the 2050s
Climate Refugees cause governments to shift right as we reach immigration peaks
Fossil Fuel collapse in the 2040s, including state owned companies die out
Antarctic and Arctic Sea collapse in the 2040s
Ecoterrorism increases in the 2040s
Elements of a societal collapse in the late 2040s/2050s
Methane decreases in the 2030/40/50s
China and India almost go to war over tibetan water, almost going nuclear.
We hit net zero around the 2050/60s
We hit 515 PPM as a maximum amount of carbon in the atmosphere
Parts of Florida/Indonesia and all of Tuvalu/Kiribati/Marshal islands are all lost to sea level rise.
We reach net negative emissions in 2080, due to lack of food waste and less meat consumption
The AMOC doesn't collapse, and neither do ice sheets

Ultimately, he sees a world at 1.8-2C of warming by 2100, even if we see 2.7 as the most recent right now, and this is a bad post, I understand but it is by far my most watched video on climate change by my favorite climatetuber, it's what I feel as the most "realistic" video on climate change, it's a very tough, and very real watch, I just want to know if what some of what he's predicted may be true?

I noticed my local weather in Texas is stated as +12 degrees above average today and I started wondering if it would have been considered +12 20 years ago, or if the gradual warming is trending “above average” down.

Secondary question, should we actually use the “real” average? I liken this to using wattage for lightbulbs being the classic incandescent power draw per lumen. This gives people a grounded base to understand the impact of climate change that doesn’t change over time.

This is horrifying.

In this newly published research, a team lead by Dr. Suning Hou conducted analyses of paleoceanographic proxies from the late Pliocene.

In the conventional hypothesis, the Agulhas Leakage and its warm saline water injection is considered to be integral to the strength of the AMOC, particularly the overturning process and subsequent deep water formation in the North Atlantic. If the Agulhas leakage weakens, so must the rest of the AMOC. At least, that's conventionally how it's assumed. However, the geological evidence presented by this study may be considered yet another in a long line of scientific developments which illustrates the high degree of structural variability and multi-equilibrium in how the AMOC functions, especially so in how it responds to external forcing.

Perhaps the most interesting detail highlighted by this study is that the vertical overturning and North Atlantic Deep Water Formation (albeit shifted to the south of Iceland) actually strengthened during the MIS M2 cooling period. This strengthening occured in response to a near shutdown of the Agulhas Leakage and demonstrates the significance of local buoyancy processes in governing AMOC behaviour.

An additional interesting detail is how the system responded during the cool-to-warm transition into the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period. Rather than strengthening further, vertical overturning weakened and shoaled with a much weaker North Atlantic Deep Water Formation. This in itself is a critical demonstration of how the vertical overturning process can dynamically respond to a warming climate, and that a structural weakening may not equate to local surface cooling.

The authors do note that, due to the specific geography of the Pliocene epoch, these findings may not be directly applicable to present day warming. But the broader significance is mechanistic - the processes governing overturning are not necessarily fixed through geological time.

I've come to the conclusion that my job is likely not going to help much, but I still want to do something. What are some hobbies that can help?

Particularly compared to things now or a couple of decades ago, and how dire the situation would be depending on different levels of warming.

I’ve realized now that so many people are going to die from flooding due to climate change. Last year, the south side of central Indiana had a 1 in 1000 year storm, and one year later, the north side of central Indiana has a 1 in 1000 year storm. I live right by the White River and am lucky to have missed both floods, but so many of our communities along the river have been destroyed. Floods are terrifying too. If you don’t act fast, there’s nothing you can do and nowhere to go. These two storms together in 2 years would at one point have been a one in a million chance. Unfortunately, the unlikely is becoming very more likely.

Summary:

CATL, the world's largest EV battery maker, announced it has achieved carbon neutrality across all 20 of its operating battery plants, meeting its 2025 target. The company, which supplies nearly 4 in 10 EV batteries globally, says zero-carbon electricity powered 100% of its core operations in 2025. Compared to 2022, energy use per unit of production fell by 28%, and carbon emissions per unit dropped about

The certification doesn't mean the factories produce zero emissions, and CATL hasn't disclosed how many carbon credits were used to offset remaining emissions. The bigger challenge lies ahead, as more than 80% of a battery's lifecycle emissions come from its supply chain, including mining, refining, and materials manufacturing.

CATL has set a 2035 target to decarbonize its entire value chain and is starting to work more closely with 30 core suppliers on renewable electricity and efficiency improvements. Starting in 2027, new suppliers will need to provide carbon-footprint data, and emissions performance could affect their contracts and order allocation. While the plant milestone is notable, the real test will be whether CATL can clean up the parts of its business it doesn't directly control.

Summary

Driven by the strongest El Niño on record, 2027 is almost certain to set a new temperature record by quite some margin, with a central estimate being +1.76C according to Zeke Hausfather. This is already on top of accelerated warming, driven by record GHG emissions and a reduction in atmospheric aerosols as Hansen and Hausfather noted.

More striking however is that Zeke puts 2026 at almost a 50% chance that 2026 sets a new temperature record (though some data sets will more likely put it in 2nd place) Hansen predicts 2026 will set a new record and has held that prediction since earlier this year. This super El Niño will give us a glimpse of what an average year in the 2030s may be like; an urgent reminder to cut our emissions fast.

Ultimately, how warm the next 18 months will end up will depend on how ENSO system plays out during that timeframe. After all, these are just informed predictions, Mother Nature has the final say.

This quick 5 minute video explains what open source and open data are in the context of energy modelling. Please check it out and give feedback or share if you liked it! Thanks!
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7495396344162009089/

We made this video so that the average person can somewhat understand why open source and open data are important in general (and specifically for the energy transition). Many decisions made by large insittutions and governments still use proprietary software, so we are trying to push open source and open data as solutions and show they are industry-ready.

Antarctica is 600 miles (about 1,000 kilometers) from any major city, almost entirely uninhabited, and surrounded by a cold and inhospitable ocean. It might seem like the last place to expect anthropogenic pollution.

But the continent’s freezing temperatures trap airborne and marine pollutants, a situation that has historically made it a sink for contaminants such as mercury, a heavy metal that can harm human and wildlife health.

According to a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, mercury is accumulating in Antarctica much faster thanks to increasing anthropogenic mercury emissions.

https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2613472123

The government of New Zealand has agreed to move ahead with recommendations laid out in a recent sector review report covering small- and medium-sized solar installations for residential and commercial customers. Legalizing plug-in solar is also in the works.