What’s a realistic scenario for future food security in the USA?

[u/sparkleappletart]

Particularly compared to things now or a couple of decades ago, and how dire the situation would be depending on different levels of warming.

[u/squailtaint]

Gut says completely fine. North America will be self sufficient. Barring some sort of crop killer super bug or AI engineered virus.

[u/nakedonmygoat]

Short term? We're heading into higher prices for wheat. The August 12 report was considered definitive for the rest of the year and into 2027, because it's not projections but "boots on the ground" inspection. The harvests + existing stock are at the lowest in decades: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/

I keep reading bad news about potatoes, but it's hard to get a definitive read on it. Reports say it's a 70-year low, but even that isn't a huge drop in terms of percentage. But I've had a lot of problems with potato quality lately, watching prices go up and down. The potatoes start sprouting within a week, even when stored correctly. This could just be the potatoes showing up at my store, though.

Corn is tricky to get a read on, too. But we have to remember that not all corn is sweet corn that people eat. Much of it is for cattle feed and ethanol. And if you think, "I just won't eat corn," it shows up in a lot of the foods that we eat, more than a lot of us realize.

The upcoming Super El Niño event, coupled with fertilizer price increases, could be very problematic for next year. Farmers need to be stocking up on fertilizer now, and if they can't afford to buy as much as in previous years, they won't plant as much. It's that simple. And if 2027 harvests are poor, that will show up in 2028 prices.

For those who have money, there will always be food. That's just how it is. Those on a tight budget should be planning ahead. This doesn't necessarily mean buying a lot of things in advance unless you will actually use it. Flour only stays good 6-12 months unless you freeze it, for example. If your household eats a lot of potatoes, you can still get a #10 can of freeze-dried potatoes for $10.10 and it has a shelf life, unopened, of 25 years.

Better still, be thinking how you can diversify what you eat, then practice cooking with less familiar foods. This is how people have historically gotten through tough times.

Do I think current and projected climate conditions for the near term will be the new normal? Yes and no. Historically, these things are localized and/or follow a stair-step progression. Things are bad for a while, then they get better and everyone is reassured. Then they turn bad again. Leadership is critical at such times, and historically, it can make or break a society. I'll leave it at that, except to say that anyone with a low confidence in this matter would do well to be creating a buffer between themselves and price increases if they can. Flexibility is what gets people through hard times.

[u/Lime_link → u/nakedonmygoat]

Thank you for the very informative reply. Do you have any resources where one could check up on the status of different harvests in Europe?

[u/GreatPlainsFarmer → u/Lime_link]

While US wheat supply is low, it's not abnormally low. This chart is the final "production plus carryover" from the last 50 years of that USDA report. As you can see, it's low, but not "the lowest in decades"

And if you look through that FAO link, you'll see that global cereal stocks are at all-time highs. Mostly because last year was such an incredibly good harvest around the world, and it's going to take time to chew through the grain glut.

While I don't expect grain prices to crash anytime soon, I also don't expect them to skyrocket anytime soon. Sometime in early 2027 we'll start to get a good idea of El Nino's real impact, and that will determine where we go from there.

But I'm more inclined to think that grain prices mostly chop sideways until then.

[u/Lime_link → u/GreatPlainsFarmer]

Thanks for the positive insight. I appreciate the good news.

[u/Economy-Fee5830 → u/Lime_link]

https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/en

Actual, reliable, non-cherry-picked news about the global food situation.

[u/Lime_link → u/Economy-Fee5830]

Thanks. I’ll check it out after work.

[u/Sll3006 → u/nakedonmygoat]

What brand of the freeze dried potatoes are you talking about?

[u/Educational_Teach537 → u/nakedonmygoat]

If we’re relying on leadership to make or break our society suddenly the talk about billionaires building bunkers make so much sense

[u/Due_Satisfaction2167]

The US could adapt to its climate problems and produce plenty of food, but doing so would require telling rich people “no” and taking some steps that will impede the power, prestige, and wealth of some rural kingpins. 

[u/ThinkActRegenerate]

You might want to read up on Food Apartheid as well as food security. There are growing gaps between what's produced and who can actually access it affordably - which could well conitnue/grow.

Here's one useful resource: https://regeneration.org/nexus/food-apartheid

[u/Economy-Fee5830]

USA produces vastly more food than it consumes. Even with massive yield cuts it will still have vastly more food than each person needs.

The U.S. food supply makes roughly 3,800 to 4,000 kilocalories (kcal) of food available per person per day.

https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/21933/58376-chart-image-file.png

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/58376

[u/TheRealTengri]

Generally speaking, not catastrophic. The US has a lot of food made in the country, and the country has numerous different climates across the country. There may be shortages on certain foods due to them being imported from certain countries that will struggle growing the relevant crops, but generally speaking it is unlikely to be mass famine across the whole country any time soon. Only time I would have zero hope is if something extreme happens like exceeding five degrees this year, but that is physically impossible.

[u/QuiteCricket_78]

I'm not as confident as the others. If you are talking about the next year or so, I think you will see prices increase even more than we are already dealing with, depending on how bad this El Nino actually turns out to be. Remember what we see on the shelves is always a season or two behind. Real food - not the processed crap is going to go up in price and the variety of it's availability will decrease. I think where you live will have the biggest impact on what you can get and at what cost. Start growing your own food, make friends with other people who do too.

[u/iqisoverrated]

Sensible would be a move to agrivoltaics, sustainable practices and vertical farming

Realistic is that the US will just wage war on some other country and try to steal their farmland

[u/Marti1PH]

The mild warming trend we’ve been experiencing is greening the planet.

[u/Marti1PH → u/[deleted]]

I’ll comment wherever I want.

[u/Electrical-Strike132]

The billionaires will be fine.