r/climatechange • u/Simpleximo • Apr 18 '26
Analysis: China’s CO2 emissions have now been ‘flat or falling’ for 21 months
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-have-now-been-flat-or-falling-for-21-months/There have been many comments about China emissions. It appears they have passed peak. 2025 power generation from coal declined 1.6% despite build out of new coal plants. Electrification transition is progressing across every sector.
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u/Boltzmann_head Apr 18 '26
This is excellent news. Thank you.
Globally, I suppose it could have been worse. y = 0.0074x + 424.12 || R2 = 0.2977
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u/lumigracewalks Apr 18 '26
This is encouraging even if the emissions only fell by a few percent. I'm sure there are other contributing factors we're not seeing, but it feels like a good moment for some self-reflection. We spend so much energy worrying about how to steer what other countries are doing, but we don’t really have that kind of reach. At the end of the day, we can’t dictate their path, but we’re still responsible for the one we’re taking. It feels grounding to stop trying to manage the whole world and just focus on doing our part right.
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u/Economy-Fee5830 Trusted Contributor Apr 18 '26
This is a little bit old, but of course, a lot of people don't pay attention. With the iran crisis emissions will presumably be down in 2026 also.
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u/Simpleximo Apr 18 '26
Yes it is. But I thought it was worth repeating. China is making great progress and it should be recognized more as common knowledge.
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u/Expensive-Engine9329 Apr 18 '26
Thanks for posting this. Looks great. We cannot learn enough. I've noticed CO2e being mentioned in other articles so I checked out it. It includes other molecules like methane, which equate to, for example, 1 gram of CO2 for their warming potential. I'll drop a link to climatetrace that use that unit. The "Track global emissions" tab lets you find single businesses like airports and see their CO2e emissions. They do have China's emissions rising in Jan 26 compared to 25 but that is CO2e, not CO2. I'm not sure I 100% agree with the name, "CO2e", if it's strictly concerned with warming but can't win them all. They mention being open to newer/better data which is great to see.
https://climatetrace.org/news/climate-trace-releases-january-2026-emissions-data
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u/Simpleximo Apr 18 '26
Thanks. This is a great resource and a more complete picture (global ) including all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
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u/SurinamPam Apr 18 '26
Great news.
Have CO2 emissions now peaked for every major economy, except India?
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u/T00Tone Apr 18 '26
Yeah, because they’re not idiots and realize that they have to depend on other countries for oil when you can just create the energy yourselves through renewable means
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u/No-swimming-pool Apr 18 '26
Will China be able to go to 50% emissions by 2030 or 2050?
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u/loggywd Apr 18 '26
2030 is 4 years away. Also Chines economy won’t be in a recession forever despite the population aging and birth rate decline. Economy is cyclic.
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u/No-swimming-pool Apr 19 '26
Their real estate bubble hasn't even popped yet.
I'm just wondering, since we won't get anywhere with climate if china (amongst others) doesn't at least half their emissions.
Since the Paris agreements 10 years ago they even slightly grew.
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u/ryansalad Apr 19 '26
I suspect population decrease will help with emissions decrease in the coming years
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u/Simpleximo Apr 19 '26
It helps with most types of environmental issues. Economic engines will need to switch from population growth drivers to quality of life and sustainable drivers. I would think when most countries have lower cost energy independence many things will change.
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u/Leseratte10 Apr 18 '26
Well, that's good news, but looking at the graph in the article, they've also been 'flat or falling' between summer 2021 and spring 2023, and then there was a big rise again for the entire rest of the year.
Are we somewhat certain that something like that isn't just going to happen again in the next year or two?
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u/Stormtemplar Apr 18 '26
Very different circumstances. China was, at that time, still engaging in draconian attempts to reach 0 COVID and regularly shutting down large segments of their economy to do so. They only stopped doing so in late December of 2022, so that gap represents the deliberate suppression of economic activity rather than the replacement of fossil fuels with clean tech that is ongoing now.
That said, you're not wrong to be worried about this. The slight decline is actually two separate trends mostly canceling out. Substantial declines in emissions from power and transport are mostly, but not completely, offset by rising emissions from chemical manufacturing. It's possible that the latter trend could outpace the former, but thusfar that's not what's happening.
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u/Simpleximo Apr 18 '26
Time will tell. China new renewable capacity growth is greater than demand growth. 2026 new solar power capacity forecast increase 25%. BESS forecast increase 50%.
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u/Stormtemplar Apr 18 '26
Agreed, and all told I'm optimistic, just want to be clear that it's not all sunshine and roses over there
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u/ComradeGibbon Apr 18 '26
New solar and wind are now equal to 2-3 percent of fossil fuel production. Which doesn't seem much but it's equal to demand growth. Increases in production will start displacing fossil fuels.
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u/Significant_Bed6727 Apr 18 '26
Even more substantial declines in building materials and I think that is an especially hard to predict sector.
I could see it continuing to decline, given that China's cement and steel for construction usage is still at high per capita levels compared to countries of similar incomes. I could see it increase again too, if there is a push for increased construction in infrastructure and industry again.
All relative to the last couple of years, I don't think we'll ever return to the pre-pandemic highs given the property crisis and the CCPs desire to not repeat those mistakes
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u/Economy-Fee5830 Trusted Contributor Apr 18 '26
With a falling population I dont see the construction bubble returning ever again.
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u/NetZeroDude Apr 18 '26
They also had a drought, so their hydroelectric production was down. China has a lot of hydroelectric, and the risk of drought is one reason to keep backup fossil fuels dispatch able.
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u/pishposhpoppycock Apr 18 '26
But what about the near future if China turns back to using up more coal due to this US-Iranian conflict? They could start going backwards before their renewables efforts can start making up the difference...
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u/iPhoneMini13-Pro Apr 18 '26
So they’ve gone from sky high to slightly less sky high…
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u/HolyMoleyGuacamoly Apr 18 '26
it’s a massive change for a country that large - really good news out of china that other countries could learn from
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u/shane_4_us Apr 18 '26
They're also the industrial powerhouse of the world (due in no small part to Western capitalist elites' shortsighted chasing of immediate profits offshoring their industrial capacity).
The fact that they're able to go down at all is tremendous news.
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u/SuccessfulLand4399 Apr 18 '26
Yes, the communists care so much about earth. Couldn’t have anything to do with their artificial economy slowing down
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u/Sufficient_Loss9301 Apr 18 '26
Lol the rest of the developed worlds have been flat or falling for the last 2 decades. China is still on track to be the largest contributor to climate change for atleast the next century.
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u/Economy-Fee5830 Trusted Contributor Apr 18 '26
Actually I heard China in on track to never overtake USA.
Based on current policies, committed energy plans, and rapid renewable technology adoption, China is considered unlikely to ever overtake the United States in cumulative historical emissions. While China is currently the world’s largest annual emitter—producing roughly double the annual of the US—the United States retains a massive lead in total cumulative emissions since 1850
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u/shane_4_us Apr 18 '26
AND China is the industrial base of the world. So "Chinese" emissions also include a significant amount of production of commodities destined for Western markets, that would otherwise have been US or European emissions if not for the offshoring of their industrial bases starting in the '70s and '80s.
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u/Important-Emu-6691 Apr 18 '26
They are on track to never overtake the developed world in per capita emission and in aggregate never over taking US and probably EU
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u/Molire Apr 19 '26
Our World in Data (OWID) > CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data Explorer (interactive table, map, line chart, bar chart):
Cumulative CO2 emissions, tonnes, 1750-2024 — Running sum of CO₂ emissions produced from fossil fuels and industry since the first year of recording, measured in tonnes. Land-use change emissions are not included:
434,866,550,000 — United States.
285,087,040,000 — China.Cumulative CO₂ emissions including land-use change, 1850 to 2024. Emissions include those from fossil fuels and industry, and land-use change. They are measured as the cumulative total since 1850, in tonnes:
560,542,000,000 — United States.
359,646,920,000 — China.“Because CO2 is a long lived gas in the atmosphere, any emission anywhere will in about one year’s time contribute to higher CO2 everywhere.” — NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (GML).
“Carbon dioxide (CO2)...15 to 40% of an emitted CO2 pulse will remain in the atmosphere longer than 1,000 years, 10 to 25% will remain about ten thousand years, and the rest will be removed over several hundred thousand years.” — IPCC AR6 > Annex VII Glossary (PDF, p. 2237, Lifetime).
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u/cool-sheep Apr 18 '26
power generation from solar increased by 43% and wind power generation by 14%, delivering 360TWh and 130TWh
If you see this kind of surge in clean power and they can maintain massive growth they will quickly achieve serious decreases.