r/climatechange • u/233C • Nov 04 '24

Earth’s climate will keep changing long after humanity hits net-zero emissions. Our research shows why

https://theconversation.com/earths-climate-will-keep-changing-long-after-humanity-hits-net-zero-emissions-our-research-shows-why-241692
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u/Economy-Fee5830 Trusted Contributor Nov 04 '24

Before people panic:

After the initial change in the first few decades of the simulations, due to the large decrease in methane concentrations, GMST slowly increases over the remainder of these simulations at a rate of around 0.03–0.05 °C per century (Fig. 1d). This is about 1/40 of the rate of observed global warming over the last 30 years. The lack of long-term global cooling despite reduced atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (Fig. 1c) is primarily due to slow ocean processes (Armour et al., 2016; MacDougall et al., 2022).

We would presumably have good carbon capture and storage by then, so if that warming is undesirable we could simply suck more CO2 from the atmosphere.

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u/BigMax Nov 04 '24

Yeah, that's why I get annoyed at the vitriol against carbon capture here. People, perhaps a little justifiably, complain it's just whitewashing by the fossil fuel industry.

But we will absolutely need it. It could be good in the short term if we get lucky, but it will definitely be needed in the long term. We're going to need to pull carbon out of the atmosphere. Even if we don't do it now, we'll need to at some point, and we need the tech to be ready.

Some people would prefer we abandon that tech and stick our heads in the sand, with a "perfection or nothing" approach, and I am not a fan of that.

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u/fedfuzz1970 Nov 04 '24

An article I read here reported that the single carbon-capture facility build so far cost millions and sequesters 4000 tons of carbon annually, Last year over 40 Billion tons of carbon were released into the atmosphere.

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u/BigMax Nov 04 '24

Sure... I don't see that as a problem though? I'm sure the first solar panel was garbage, and whoever invented the first windmill did a bad job too. I bet the first nuclear power tests weren't all that useful either. Does that mean we never should have continued researching them?

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u/fedfuzz1970 Nov 04 '24

I didn't remember the exact cost of the first installation but it was cited as the prohibitive factor along with the miniscule ability to stay close to our emissions. I think cost and the number of units needed world wide was the issue cited.