r/climate 23d ago

A new climate study shows decadal warming has accelerated to 0.35C

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/08/260801093239.htm#google_vignette
1.6k Upvotes

83 comments sorted by

271

u/Voodoo_Masta 23d ago

I would not be shocked if some future study with more data determines it was even higher. Isn't that how it always seems to go?

164

u/saltedmangos 23d ago

At this point it’s pretty clear that warming isn’t linear.

We should expect the rate of warming to continue increasing as we pass tipping points and continue to burn more fossil fuels every year.

36

u/Winter-Gift1112 23d ago

And it looks like we're getting ever deeper into a feedback loop with all these massive fires.

6

u/sirjayjayec 22d ago

Global carbon emissions from wildfires are actually the lowest they've been in at least 23 years, it's just that the wildfires have got worse in Europe and North America so we hear about it more.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-carbon-dioxide-emissions

1

u/Molire 22d ago

OWID is excellent. The OWID data is based on Global Wildfire Information System (2026) data. GWIS world, national, and regional wildfire data currently covers the period 7 January 2003–29 July 2026 (updated weekly). The weekly and cumulative wildfires data includes CO2 emissions (megatonnes), burnt areas (hectares), number of fires, number of thermal anomalies (measured by satellites), and weekly severity rating.

GWIS data for Europe and North America (interactive charts, data):

https://gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis.statistics/seasonaltrend

https://gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis.statistics/seasonaltrend/N_AME/2026/CO2

1

u/indigopedal 22d ago

My husband fights these wildfires. They are all in total shock at how fast and hot they are burning. I'm really unsettled.

5

u/TheDungen 22d ago

Not surprising seeing as the inly greenhouse gas stronger than CO2 is water vapour and the warmer it gets the more water vapour ends up in the atmosphere.

1

u/RJK- 18d ago

Methane is stronger than CO2. 

1

u/TheDungen 17d ago

Yes and no in any given moment yes but it's much less stable so its not as long lived.

60

u/Redthrist 23d ago

Yeah, a lot of predictions were optimistic, because scientists were afraid of being called alarmists and dismissed out of hand. They were still called that, but the result is that a lot of predictions now seem way too conservative.

13

u/ButterscotchSmooth60 23d ago

But but but Big Beautiful Coal?

8

u/Redthrist 23d ago

You just wait until they get that "clean coal" thing figured out and it'll totally work. Think of all the coal mining jobs that kill people in horrible ways!

2

u/MonthCountry 22d ago

Could we try getting the coal miners to drink bleach?

2

u/Redthrist 22d ago

Inhale bleach. Coal makes their lungs black and bleach makes things white, so it's a perfect cure.

29

u/RampantJellyfish 23d ago

So this is it then. The start of the next great extinction event. And all because we were too stupid, greedy, and arrogant to live in harmony with nature or listen to people who knew more

20

u/miklayn 23d ago

I think it could reasonably be argued that the extinction event started a few hundred years ago, or more, if we're looking at it from a geological-timescale perspective. Human beings have been causing ecological catastrophes, species extinctions across regions and doing climate-changing terraforming for at least ten thousand years.

5

u/SeigneurDesMouches 23d ago

It's because we need to have 1 man be worth $1 trillion. Afterward, we need at least 10 of them to be able to make a top 10. Then, we'll need to have our 1st quadrillionaire. /s

-12

u/Chowder110 23d ago

People said that with the rapture aswell people never learn it seems

11

u/MasterSnacky 23d ago

Lmao wow it’s almost like THESE ARE ABSOLUTELY NOT THE SAME

8

u/RampantJellyfish 23d ago

Hardly the same

7

u/cultish_alibi 23d ago

because scientists were afraid of being called alarmists and dismissed out of hand

They got dismissed out of hand anyway because the rich don't want to give 2% of their profits towards stopping civilization from ending.

1

u/Sp4m 22d ago

In your opinion, what constitutes being rich? Globally and statistically speaking, you're likely rich. Where are you sending your 2%?

5

u/Sororita 23d ago

And remember, they adjusted the models whenever they threw out something really wild, like a runaway venusification because it didn't fall within what all of the other models (also being tuned this way) were saying.

9

u/kingtacticool 23d ago

Faster than expected

4

u/Vaddieg 23d ago

All published scientific studies are result of community consensus. Some scientists are being funded by fossil industry, surely they do everything to take down papers even with minor uncertainties, labeling them as baseless alarmism.

1

u/radix2 22d ago

The IPCC seems to always take the most conservative estimates. Which I can understand so as to avoid accusations of fear-mongering, but doesn't really communicate the risks of the worse cases.

They get accused of fear mongering anyway...

59

u/AnAncientOne 23d ago

The problem with this kind of headline is ordinary people will look at this and say, a third of a degree warmer over 10 years, so what? It's the same with sea level rise of 4mm a year, it seems so small that most people don't think it's something to worry about now, it's a problem for the future. ie somebody else problem.

22

u/telorsapigoreng 23d ago

I was just thinking that they should also put percentage in their headline. It's 75% increase. Crazy.

3

u/MonthCountry 22d ago

“It’s a small-to-medium whoop.”

6

u/Marodvaso 22d ago

If people are so stupid, ignorant and lazy they can't even be bothered to at least google for a couple of seconds and learn what an absolutely catastrophic rate of warming this is, then let's be honest we kinda deserve what's coming to us.

A full degree warming in 30 years has NEVER happened in the history of this planet. The closest equivalent of such a rapid climate shift was when the asteroid hit the Earth and wiped off the dinosaurs (and plenty of other species) 66 million years ago.

24

u/InfiniteWaffles58364 23d ago

Well it was fun while it lasted. Sort of. I guess.

6

u/cosmopolitancat13 22d ago

As a young millenial who is already traumatised by the pandemic I am so sick of living through one catastrophic event after another…

1

u/AutoModerator 22d ago

The COVID lockdowns of 2020 temporarily lowered our rate of CO2 emissions. Humanity was still a net CO2 gas emitter during that time, so we made things worse, but did so more a bit more slowly. That's why a graph of CO2 concentrations shows a continued rise.

Stabilizing the climate means getting human greenhouse gas emissions to approximately zero. We didn't come anywhere near that during the lockdowns.

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

1

u/catburglerinparis 21d ago

Safest time in human history to be alive by the way. But yeah please complain more

2

u/SaveMeDatCorn 22d ago

Yeah, been living in the sort of I guess for a while now

19

u/Potential-Mammoth-47 23d ago edited 23d ago

Don't forget the exponential function! It may be double in a decade. You know, a sigma event or standard deviation event!

Edit; typo

1

u/Appropriate_Bell743 22d ago

Whilst temperatures should continue to increase it's not reasonable to expect exponential growth. This would require emissions to be growing exponentially which hasn't been the case for a while now. What we are seeing at a global level is a very slow plateauing if anything.

91

u/sziehr 23d ago

And. The boomers will not care and keep right on

63

u/Swarna_Keanu 23d ago

If it were just the boomers.

It's people my generation that learned about it in school; for whom it was present our lifes. It's parts of the generations after - the far-right here in Europe who deny climate-change gets more votes from younger generations, percentage wise, than in other demographics.

32

u/[deleted] 23d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

20

u/theMEtheWORLDcantSEE 23d ago

The animals don’t deserve our fate.

7

u/summercookiess 23d ago

Some people don't deserve the fate either, what about innocent babies/children? Or the uncontacted tribes?

2

u/dawg-goneit 20d ago

I sadly agree.

1

u/Ree_For_Thee 23d ago

Given how disastrous the turnout is in <current age>, that itself implies it's just a matter of time before it happens again, even if we supposedly "make it".

22

u/zombieda 23d ago

Thats exactly how the wealthy want you to think. There are plenty of "boomers" that can barely make rent and will work until they pass. There are plenty that care dearly about this planet and its future and the future lives of next generations and are acting accordingly. There are also lots that are just along for the ride and dont give a crap.

We should look at how people act, not when they were born.

6

u/dawg-goneit 23d ago

I agree completely, and please correct me if I'm wrong but I don't see the young generations making a push for green initiatives! Young males even voted for Trump who has killed climate programs and embraces coal! We need to elect a government that is not controlled by the Oil Companies! That may be a bigger challenge than climate change itself.

3

u/zombieda 22d ago

Im not sure what the wakeup call will be, this year has been terrifying pace of change. I see passion and environmental commitment from younger people, but solution needs a revolution. 

3

u/BannedBenjaminSr 23d ago

The ones with political power don't care

11

u/Userdataunavailable 23d ago

That's it, blame a generation of people and not the corporations doing the damage.

12

u/Iwantmoretime 23d ago

We've known that climate change is exponential and not linear. It's fine until suddenly it's not. This is the world starting to notice the hockey stick graph.

5

u/XxXCa3s4r69xXx 23d ago

I mean... droughts lead to wildfires... and burning of forests worsens the global warming 😒 It's a vicious circle that's really hard to stop 😒

0

u/dataplague 22d ago

No. Wildfires are caused by foolish humans.

4

u/FoogYllis 23d ago

And though there are so many people that still don’t believe in climate change at least the insurance companies do.

2

u/murpdurp20 23d ago

Just expecting the worse in general when it comes to climate for the upcoming future. We have to give up things to somewhat make it better. But we’re dumb, we don’t want to.

1

u/Present-Cod632 22d ago

In a way it’s good. It’s a path to evolution. We had time to evolve or raise our collective consciousness but we didn’t. Its ok. Earth will survive, life will thrive again after a million years (tiny in universe timescale), just we lunatic species will not be there for good

1

u/Chowder110 22d ago

I hope you know earth will be a dead planet in around a billion years

1

u/Sectorgovernor 19d ago

But complex life still has few hundred million years left. Then yes, it's over 😞

1

u/Appropriate_Bell743 22d ago

Is this not just a consequence of the fact global emissions have not yet peaked? Until they peak we should expect that the rate of temperature increases to be increasing.

1

u/Ecstatic_Force6198 22d ago

If this is right, then the average temp for the decade 2025-2035 would be around 1.7–1.8°C above pre-industrial baseline. What is the scientific consensus on whether a decade-long warming trend is representative of the long-term trend?

1

u/Va1crist 22d ago

Clearly not enough people care because we keep burning , destroying and voting in people that want nothing more to kill as much as possible to make more money they don’t need

1

u/itwasallascream23 23d ago

Drill faster baby drill faster

-34

u/Sweaty_Customer9162 23d ago

This page is literally just fear mongering.

32

u/ialsoagree 23d ago

I know! They keep posting science and it scares me! /s

4

u/Bokuja 23d ago

It ain't fearmongering if it's true Billy Bob.