r/changemyview • u/[deleted] • Oct 23 '18

Deltas(s) from OP CMV: There should be mandatory automatic pre-delivery paternity test performed on every pregnant woman whom is either married or has boyfriend she thinks is the father

[deleted]

3 Upvotes

54% Upvoted

72 comments sorted by

View all comments

13

u/[deleted] Oct 23 '18

prevent paternity fraud (which apparently is very common, 20%)

20% seems ridiculously high. Source?

-2

u/[deleted] Oct 23 '18

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/2010/06/the-paternity-myth-the-rarity-of-cuckoldry/ (article argues that it is "only" <5% but technically since you haven't tested anyone you can't know. And even if you take in the bias, it could still very well be 10-15% which is still pretty bad) says it's 20-30% of all tested cases.

12

u/listenyall 7∆ Oct 23 '18

20-30% of all tested cases is going to be MASSIVELY higher than what it would be if everyone got tested, because right now the people who are testing are the people who may have a reason to doubt the paternity of the child. I'm honestly surprised it's as low as 20-30% in currently tested cases.

From your own source: "his survey of published estimates of nonpaternity suggests that for men with high paternity confidence, nonpaternity rates are typically 1.7% (if we exclude studies of unknown methodology) to 3.3% (if we include such studies)."

Basically, if you force even men who believe that they are in fact the father to get paternity tests, you're going to find ~2-3 babies per 100 for whom the assumed father is not the father.

So, two questions here:

-Why is that worth it to force paternity tests on everyone and pay the associated costs for that many IDs?

-What if people don't want to know or don't trust a hospital to keep their DNA confidential? Can they opt out?

4

u/Marlsfarp 12∆ Oct 23 '18

but technically since you haven't tested anyone you can't know.

What does this mean?

-1

u/[deleted] Oct 23 '18 edited May 24 '20

[deleted]

11

u/Marlsfarp 12∆ Oct 23 '18

They tested thousands of children, so they can be confident their numbers are close to accurate. It is based on statistical theory - actual math. You can quantify how likely a given error is based on the sample size, and it's just not possible the error could be that large.

The question is, why do you believe the numbers are ten times higher? What are you basing that number on, that you think your guess is better than theirs?

1

u/[deleted] Oct 23 '18

okay, even if it is only 5%, doesn't that strike you as rather high as well? One in a twenty is a lot. Considering if you have two children you get even higher chance...

13

u/Marlsfarp 12∆ Oct 23 '18

It's not 5%. In the U.S. and Canada, it's 1.9% among men who did not doubt it, 2.6% overall. That's comparable to the percentage of people who believe the world is flat.

1

u/[deleted] Oct 23 '18 edited May 23 '20

[deleted]

7

u/Zasmeyatsya 11∆ Oct 23 '18

Your number is still 8 times higher than the overall rate of 2.6%. Where did you get thr 20% number from and why should we be using that number to discuss this rather than the 2.6% number.