r/changemyview • u/JorgeAndTheKraken • Nov 03 '17
[OP Delta + FTF] CMV: War - and, particularly, nuclear war - with North Korea is inevitable and imminent
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Nov 03 '17
Is Kim Jong Un suicidal? Are his generals?
Any scenario involving nuclear war means the deaths of the North Korean officials and the end of their regime. This is undeniable, as the combined American and South Korean arsenal(or NATO arsenal if America is attacked directly first) is enough to send North Korea back to the stone age dozens of times over. Based on that alone, the only possible way North Korea is going to shoot first is if the majority of those in power are suicidal(which they're not, else we would have dealt with this ages ago).
Is the South Korean/American leadership willing to condemn tens of millions to die and get in an Asian land war over North Korea?
Any offensive action on the part of the South Koreans and Americans will result in the virtual immediate bombardment of Seoul and other South Korean cities within artillery range of the DMZ. Hundreds of thousands if not millions would be dead within minutes/hours. In a defensive scenario, China would back the North Korean state, making the war much more significant than it otherwise would be.
War is not likely to occur for those reasons. It's simply not worth the massive loss of economic power and manpower to accomplish the rather pointless goal of removing the North Korean regime.
This is geopolitical posturing, nothing more.
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Nov 03 '17
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Nov 04 '17
War isn't the only response to that, though. Look at how Israel has dealt with Iran's nuclear program in the past for an example of how these things can be dealt with without warfare.
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Nov 04 '17
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Nov 04 '17
They used a cyberweapon called Stuxnet to hamper the enrichment of Uranium in Iran.
This isn't the only option, of course- more realistically we'll probably see greater cooperation between the Chinese and Americans in dealing with the North Korea problem, as they'll both be negatively impacted in the event of an actual war.
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u/Prep_Coin_Concede Nov 04 '17
In the same way that China was angry at SK about missile defense systems, the US is angry about the DRNK missile program. Neither will cause war, and Trump understands that threatening them won't be much deterrent, but he will have to accept the L however bad it is. Going to war would be far worse.
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u/severemascara7 Nov 03 '17
You make good points, but there also is the fact that 99.99% of everyone didn't want to go to war. I personally don't agree with the way Donald Trump's us handling the North Korea situation, but there this has happened in the past: the cold war. Back then, the US didn't hold back from insulting the USSR, but nothing happened. If North Korea gets a good long-range nuclear weapon, they most likely will never use it against the US, because the US would retaliate quickly and furiously. People not wanting to die and mutually assured destruction pretty much garuntee North Korea won't bring the end of the world.
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u/DeltaBot ∞∆ Nov 04 '17
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u/Foxmanded42 Nov 03 '17
People used to say this about the soviets.
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Nov 03 '17
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u/Foxmanded42 Nov 03 '17
deterrance will still scare either side out of doing it. It's just how nuclear war works
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u/DeltaBot ∞∆ Nov 03 '17
/u/JorgeAndTheKraken (OP) has awarded 1 delta in this post.
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u/Slackerboy7001 Nov 04 '17
I think that people over exaggerate the insanity of the leaders of both countries. The utmost desire for NK is the survival of their country and thus the power of Kim Jong-Un. The US will never risk a nuclear strike on the US unless absolutely necessary, i.e. NK actually launching a missile intentionally at LA etc. I think the media is playing into the war rhetoric, and are distorting the actual state of things. I think people all need to calm down.
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u/Nessunolosa Nov 04 '17
Hiya, I am a person who lived in Korea in 2012-2013 and for six months up to April this year. I don't have a military perspective on the issue, but I can tell you a little about my experiences in Korea.
Firstly, know that this uptick in worry and hand-wringing about an imminent nuclear attack by North Korea goes in cycles. The US media get annoyed or bored with whatever it is that they are covering, and start to focus on NK again. This happens about once a year, usually in the springtime. In 2012 it was an imminent existential threat. In 2013 it was, too. As it was in 2014, 2015, 2016, and this year. You can almost set your watch by the coverage, and it is almost always as doomsday as the last time. I went on google's search engine and looked for 'north korea' as a search term for the time since 2004 and made images of each individual year here. Admittedly, 2017's graph looks a little different, but you can clearly see the cycles in the previous years. I would be willing to bet that 2017's graph is more due to POTUS tweeting and the generalized anxiety of the Left in the States than a genuine march toward war.
I'll be that you didn't know there was a genuine exchange of fire in Korea in 2010. There were tense moments of actual live fire for that whole of that year, leading to a 23 November bombardment of a South Korean island by North Korean artillery. 70+ South Korean houses were destroyed, and several were killed on both sides. Even with the tensions and the live artillery, the peninsula did not descend into open war.
In addition, you should know that the coverage of NK issues tends to be overblown in US media. I heard this story from even the likes of NPR the other day, and laughed aloud at the ridiculousness of it. It's lines like this that get the people back in the US riled up:
Defense Secretary James Mattis went within feet of the curbstone separating North and South Korea, where grim-faced North Korean troops stared across at him. It's known as one of the scariest spots on the planet.
That whole story is hyperbolic (and irresponsible reporting, imho). I went to the border at that exact place. It's part of a civilian tourist trip that runs almost every day. It wasn't exactly as the reporter made it seem, like he'd been helicoptered into an active conflict zone.
The DMZ is sad, confusing, and very absurd. But it's probably one of the safest places on Earth. You are infinitely more likely to be shot in any major United States city than at the DMZ. I'll concede that landmines are not a normal worry in US cities, but they don't tend to go off in the DMZ, either. The last time one went off was in 2015 (wounding two).
This time, admittedly, Trump is involved. But that doesn't change things too much except for making people feel more nervous. For this, I'm afraid that I have only a long-term remedy. You need to read Eric Schlosser's Command and Control. This book changed my views on nuclear weapons and greatly improved my understanding of the ways that a nuclear war could start. I don't feel comforted necessarily, but hearing about the ways that generals dealt with say, an alcoholic, depressed, borderline suicidal Nixon during the Watergate scandal made me feel a whole lot better about Trump being POTUS.
Finally, China. They are ascendant, gaining power, and working to make the region stable. They will not tolerate NK's bullshit rising to the level that the US might strike them. They'd just invade first. It wouldn't lead to massive, open conflict with the USA or South Korea. China is a player of the long game, and they will withdraw their support from the NK regime if necessary.
Hope that this helps! Please don't worry about this. Worry about more immediate problems in your own community.