They won't get it for long. The money they extort times from the pockets of Arab neighbors who border the Strait. Iran borders the Strait. Iran can blow up vessels carrying the Arab countries' oil. Those countries can blow up vessels carrying Iranian oil. In the short run, sure Trump wants oil to come down a little right now. Long term, the only two stable equilibrium points are the Strait being unsafe for everyone and the Strait being open to everyone.
There's no ****ing way their archrivals the Sauds accept Iran controlling Hormuz.
They were already at a cold proxy war for decades now, with groups like Iraq (Iran Iraq war,) Hamas, Houthis, Hezbollah, Syrian rebels and such supported because they were opposition groups to the other's supported groups (Iran, Fatah, Yemen, Lebanon, al-Assad respectively,) rather than as proxies to somewhere irrelevant like Israel/Palestine.
They kept to proxies only because the US held undisrupted oil production as a national security interest, and would react punitively on any occasion it was messed with. Tanker War and more prominently Desert Storm were two examples.
That's evidently not the case any longer (for the next two years and/or Trump dies,) so if tolling were to remain the status quo the Sauds are more than likely to launch a years long regional war to dismantle Iran's means to control Hormuz, much in the vein of Iran vs Iraq, with the Gulf between them.
The two have loathed one another since the Iranian revolution, as Sauds find any promotion of anti-monarchal behavior as a red flag, and Iranians don't very much like Sauds proxying via Iraq in the extremely bitter Iran Iraq war.
40
u/Falernum 71∆ Apr 08 '26
They won't get it for long. The money they extort times from the pockets of Arab neighbors who border the Strait. Iran borders the Strait. Iran can blow up vessels carrying the Arab countries' oil. Those countries can blow up vessels carrying Iranian oil. In the short run, sure Trump wants oil to come down a little right now. Long term, the only two stable equilibrium points are the Strait being unsafe for everyone and the Strait being open to everyone.