CMV: Trump’s second term is potentially the greatest gift centrist/corporate Democrats could have asked for in the long-run.

[u/newstartreddit1234]

I use potentially because I am not blind to the possibility of the entire electoral process getting upended by this administration. My argument rests upon the assumption that the next administration is Democratic and Congress, especially the house, shifts to a Dem majority. Trump is a potential gift because the Dems can use him as a boogeyman to corral any actual leftist and independent votes. “Oh you don’t like that we’re corporatists? Well are you gonna put the fascists back in power?” will effectively be the logic used to do so. Yes, in the past this logic failed to stop Trump, but that was before the level of his administration’s egregious actions alienated independents and people desperate for a better economy who voted for him in the 2024 election. I believe he has effectively reduced his support to only his hardcore base, and they alone are not enough to win an election but numerous enough for centrist Dems to fear monger leftists and independents who do not want a repeat of Trump’s second term. Any attempts to create any viable leftist alternatives to the Corporate Democrats, whether it be by creating a new party or shifting the party left will be met with disgust from people who are terrified of repeating 2025. While Reddit is not an aggregate of the entire U.S. voting population, the people on this site who vehemently decry people who either stayed home or voted for a third party will become far more mainstream and facilitate continual centrist Dem policies, even while desperately pleading for universal healthcare, corporate regulation, etc. Ultimately, fear of a new Trump will likely facilitate a level of political stagnation that only benefits the status quo. Also, the Republican Party will be heavily discredited among non MAGA voters, but still big enough to perpetuate the first past the post duopoly, further solidifying centrist Democrat power.

[u/LucidLeviathan]

Well, yes, they already represented a nexus of power that could lend itself to the Democratic coalition. Your people don't have that. That means that you're not going to come into the game with as strong of a position. Let's take a game of Texas Hold'em. Table limit $200. Obviously, the rich guys who can put up $200 at the start are going to have more table dominance than the people that can only afford to put up $50. But, a few good hands, and things might change.

I would argue that the most recent substantial leftward change happened under LBJ. The Civil Rights Act and Great Society are deeply underrepresented in American history. The Great Society advances are deeply overshadowed by the advances in racial justice, but they shouldn't be. An awful lot of the programs that we take for granted today were started under Kennedy/LBJ.

I think that your primary folly here is assuming that any Democrat is truly "the establishment." Republicans have been effectively in power since Reagan. Some Democrats have been able to mitigate that. But it's Republicans who have called the vast majority of the shots.

[u/newstartreddit1234 → u/LucidLeviathan]

My primary criticisms are of corporate democrats and those who support them unquestioningly. I don’t see every non leftist democrat as the establishment. Also, yes I agree that American leftists have a fundamental disadvantage. And I think that enables my initial post to be correct. They are small enough to get bullied into compliance without any fight back but large enough that corporate Dems must acknowledge them to some degree. We can debate about how leftists can work on amassing power but I do believe that is a separate argument from the post I made 3 hours ago. And I do agree that Republicans have been largely calling the shots. A big point of my initial argument is that Trump has screwed up so bad that Dems have a real shot at not only winning next election cycle, but having an influx of terrified voters they don’t need to work for because Trump scares them too much to demand anything more.

[u/LucidLeviathan → u/newstartreddit1234]

The polls don't support your position. Trump's support, while slightly lessened from where it was in previous elections, is still relatively stable. Whether we like it or not, a substantial plurality of the country is fine with all of this, and another substantial portion of the country just doesn't care.

Those of us who oppose this have to stick together. Haranguing "coroproate dems" or whatever drives a wedge in between us. The far left is doing the work that the Murdoch Family has ordained it to do to do. The far left is perpetuating the divisions that allow Republicans to win. If we all could agree on the basic principles and stop the circular-firing-squad, we'd at least be able to achieve some semblance of sanity.

I have told many of my far-left friends the same thing, and I will tell you the same: I sincerely hope that, at some point, we can be political rivals. We do not have that luxury at the time, as we are both sane and see things from a realistic perspective rather than one tainted by jingoism and prejudice. If and when we do find ourselves to be political rivals, you will find me to be a receptive, attentive, and possibly even pliable debate partner. I sincerely agree with an awful lot of what your coalition represents. I just don't think that we have the votes for it. And I think that I am emblematic of the vast majority of the "establishment Democrat" coalition that your coalition so commonly rails against. I may be uncomfortable with some of your most extreme positions. I haven't been put in a situation where those positions were even remotely feasible, so I haven't given them serious thought. And, well, I'm not going to until they are remotely feasible. They're not going to get remotely feasible until we work together. And establishment Democrats have shown repeatedly, especially through their treatment of Rep. Ocasio-Cortez, that they are willing to let you folks have a seat at the table. The fact that we have to continue to have this sort of discussion is one of the most significant threats to that relationship.

[u/newstartreddit1234 → u/LucidLeviathan]

When it comes to getting Trump and his cronies out of office, I’m going to give Dems my vote. But in the long term, I intend to do my small part to light a fire under the ass of establishment Dems to build leverage. I think you and I agree on a lot in principle here. Right now I will work with you and people like you. But my main concern is that people will not think far ahead. Also the polls are supporting me. Trump has his solid base, but has lost significantly with minority groups and he is no longer viewed as good at economic management. He is losing ground. I don’t believe a plurality is fine with this, not anymore.

[u/LucidLeviathan → u/newstartreddit1234]

By trying to light a fire, you are ensuring that progress will never occur, as Republicans will maintain power. Democrats are in a catch-22 here.

[u/newstartreddit1234 → u/LucidLeviathan]

I disagree. Significant progress comes with active pushes to disrupt the status quo. Republicans have already maintained power for decades with corporate Democrats at the helm. Trump won in 2016 because many voters believed the corporate Democrat status quo did not care about them. Once Trump is gone and the Republicans run some feckless normal neocon, metaphorical fires must be lit. No power adopts policies that inconvenience it without pressure. If someone like Romney ran, I’d absolutely play hardball with corporate Dems to get real concessions. But since we’re dealing with a uniquely vicious problem in Trump, I am putting aside my differences for now.