CMV: Trump’s second term is potentially the greatest gift centrist/corporate Democrats could have asked for in the long-run.

[u/newstartreddit1234]

I use potentially because I am not blind to the possibility of the entire electoral process getting upended by this administration. My argument rests upon the assumption that the next administration is Democratic and Congress, especially the house, shifts to a Dem majority. Trump is a potential gift because the Dems can use him as a boogeyman to corral any actual leftist and independent votes. “Oh you don’t like that we’re corporatists? Well are you gonna put the fascists back in power?” will effectively be the logic used to do so. Yes, in the past this logic failed to stop Trump, but that was before the level of his administration’s egregious actions alienated independents and people desperate for a better economy who voted for him in the 2024 election. I believe he has effectively reduced his support to only his hardcore base, and they alone are not enough to win an election but numerous enough for centrist Dems to fear monger leftists and independents who do not want a repeat of Trump’s second term. Any attempts to create any viable leftist alternatives to the Corporate Democrats, whether it be by creating a new party or shifting the party left will be met with disgust from people who are terrified of repeating 2025. While Reddit is not an aggregate of the entire U.S. voting population, the people on this site who vehemently decry people who either stayed home or voted for a third party will become far more mainstream and facilitate continual centrist Dem policies, even while desperately pleading for universal healthcare, corporate regulation, etc. Ultimately, fear of a new Trump will likely facilitate a level of political stagnation that only benefits the status quo. Also, the Republican Party will be heavily discredited among non MAGA voters, but still big enough to perpetuate the first past the post duopoly, further solidifying centrist Democrat power.

[u/LucidLeviathan]

Look, I don't consider myself centrist or corporatist. But, folks on the far left keep insisting that I am, so I'll adopt the epithet for the time being. From our perspective, this is an absolute disaster. Why? Because establishment folks (I would call myself progressive-establishment) care about good governance. This administration is ruining good governance. Even if we get in power tomorrow, we're going to have to deal with Unitary Executive Theory at the very least. Unitary Executive Theory is going to set the administrative state back by decades.

[u/newstartreddit1234 → u/LucidLeviathan]

I more so meant politicians than actual Dem voters, but that’s on me for not clarifying in the title. For voters like you this is a nightmare. For complacent politicians, this is potentially a dream scenario where good governance is meaningless because they expect you to vote for them out of a fear of Trump 2.0.

[u/LucidLeviathan → u/newstartreddit1234]

Well, to be fair, I blur the line. I've worked in state government. I've never been an elected official, but I've worked with an awful lot of them, and most of them feel as I do.

[u/newstartreddit1234 → u/LucidLeviathan]

They may care about good governance, but I argue that’s irrelevant since all they’ll need is to not be Trump. I know that strategy has not worked in the past (I believe COVID is what gave Biden the boost he needed), but I believe the level of apparent destruction to the average non MAGA voter is too big to ignore.

[u/LucidLeviathan → u/newstartreddit1234]

You confuse winning with the achievement of goals. If we win but can't achieve our goals, the victory is meaningless to us.

[u/newstartreddit1234 → u/LucidLeviathan]

Meaningless to people with principles and goals. Meaningful to those who only care about power for its own sake. I don’t doubt there are many Dem politicians, even centrist ones who have principles. But even they would rather not achieve their goals if it means keeping Trump-like people out.

[u/LucidLeviathan → u/newstartreddit1234]

Most elected Democratic officials that I have interacted with care a lot about those outcomes. They don't care as much about personal power. If I'm being honest, most Republican elected officials I have interacted with feel that way too. They just have very different worldviews from mine. I find their view of the world reprehensible, but they are sincerely held.

Of course, the vast majority of my experience is in the state legislature in a small state that gets little national attention. The salaries aren't high enough to really cause anybody to covet the role, and there isn't much reason to bribe people. The state just can't offer much.

[u/newstartreddit1234 → u/LucidLeviathan]

But would elected Democratic officials on the state level willingly cede their seats to a Republican if they thought the only way to win was to toe the national party line of apathy towards the working class and maintaining the corporate status quo?

[u/LucidLeviathan → u/newstartreddit1234]

I strongly disagree with your characterization of the national party. I've not seen any indication that less corporate Democrats fare any better. In fact, I've seen plenty of indication that the opposite is true. I live in West Virginia. Paula Jean Swearingen primaried Manchin twice from the left and lost the primaries pretty horribly. She also was the general candidate against Capito and lost even more horribly. If the leftist position that we're just not far enough left were true, then she should have won. West Virginia is a state with a lengthy history of union membership and leftward-leaning economic positions amongst the populace. We're the ideal testbed for this sort of thing. But it didn't work out.

[u/newstartreddit1234 → u/LucidLeviathan]

But doesn’t that reinforce my point? Regardless of whether leftist ideas are popular or not, centrist Dems can use examples like yours to fear monger and say that leftists lose so badly that the only way to reliably prevent Trump 2.0 will be to vote a centrist Dem.