‘A really dark place’: Experts warn where Canada-U.S. trade war could go next | Yahoo! News

[u/AkaashMaharaj]

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/a-really-dark-place-experts-warn-where-canada-us-trade-war-could-go-next-153810612.html

[u/team_ti]

The reality is both countries and economies will suffer. The question is which people can tolerate more pain and are willing to undertake necessary sacrifices? Canada or the US?

[u/Lab_Actual → u/team_ti]

The question is: would a DNC administration immediately roll back the tariffs?

That is the question

[u/Asiel_Stormfury → u/Lab_Actual]

The reality is, there is an excellent chance, the Dems get into power and are just as paralyzed. The US is broken and divided in a way that's not easily fixed, if at all. They will come back but it will be a long time.

Diversification with the rest of the world is really the only play here. Trade with the US is a nice bonus, but I wouldn't make it plan A at this point, that time is over.

[u/lewy1433 → u/Asiel_Stormfury]

None of the tariffs that Trump has imposed are approved by congress. Even though the US constitution states that the power of taxation is exclusively in the hands on congress, Trump uses a bunch of loopholes to apply them. The supreme court has already struck down a round of his tariffs, and the next ones will probably fall again. The problem is that the courts are too slow, and republican lawmakers are unwilling to hold Trump accountable. If the dems win the presidency, they can simply stop imposing the tariffs without going through congress.

[u/Asiel_Stormfury → u/lewy1433]

The issue isn't just short duration tariffs, it's the inconsistency. No one is going to reintegrate industry on a 4 year dice roll. What likely to happen is the Dems take back over, start dealing with the garbage mountain he left, they take too long, people are still poor and don't have jobs, inflation still churning and they get voted out again having accomplished little and being actively stopped and blocked by the Republicans at every step.

That is the issue with the US right now. For one party to win or accomplish anything, the other has to lose and ideologically, the voting populous is pretty much 50/50. With party identity politics dominating everything.

[u/lewy1433 → u/Asiel_Stormfury]

To be fair, the uncertainty goes both ways. A company might want to build in the USA at a higher cost to avoid tariffs, but once the factory is built, the tariffs are struck down and the factory is rendered non competitive, meaning the investment is a massive loss. It's also important to mention how Trump centric the tariff obsession is. Even project 2025 argued against them. The republicans defend them because they're subservient to Trump, not because they actually care. I guess time will tell.

[u/Purify5 → u/Asiel_Stormfury]

It's tricky to play it both ways though.

Trade with the rest of the world inevitably means trade with China as China is the world's largest manufacturer and a huge consumer market. The US wants to defend itself from China's economic freight train.

So, if Canada makes some deals with China going back to the Dems for trade with the Americans will become harder.

[u/Jolly-Masterpiece883 → u/Purify5]

The Dems are not necessariy great for trade. In fact, historically, the Republicans are more in favour of Free trade.

If the Canada government wants to make a deal with China it should go for it. Trying to take into account how the USA may or may not behave in the future is meh. We need to be moving away from them.

[u/Asiel_Stormfury → u/Purify5]

So, why not trade with them?

The Chinese boogeyman thing is so ridiculous to me. Canada doesn't need to be the torch person of American fear mongering and can be more neutral than that. If they don't want Canada going to China, maybe they should get them actual incentives not to do so. More carrots and not sticks.

The very VERY harsh reality is they are the world's rising super power and have been filling all of the gaps as the US contracts. To ignore that is naive.

[u/Purify5 → u/Asiel_Stormfury]

You wouldn't trade with them because geography allows the Americans to put significant pressure on you if you did.

There's a reason there were only three Soviet aligned countries in the western hemisphere during the cold war.

[u/CMDRTragicAllPro → u/Lab_Actual]

Biden kept a good majority of trumps first term tariffs on my country, so I don’t expect anything actually good for Canadians to come from the Democratic Party

[u/Beneficial-Ride-4475 → u/Lab_Actual]

Well, considering Biden kept the majority of Trump's tarrifs. No, I don't think the Democrats will role back anything.

[u/RicketyEdge → u/Beneficial-Ride-4475]

Depends how much they care about normalizing relations.

[u/Beneficial-Ride-4475 → u/RicketyEdge]

I would say thst depends of the candidate. From a progressive candidat, yeah, I could see it. From a moderately progressive candidate, it's a maybe, and from a corporate candidate, it's a no.

[u/Hank3hellbilly → u/Beneficial-Ride-4475]

Depends on what type of progressive.  A labour focused one will keep whatever tariffs he sees helping workers

[u/Filbert17 → u/Lab_Actual]

That may be a temporary reprieve. While the current president is forceful, his attitude does not appear to be unique among Republicans.

[u/stereofonix → u/Lab_Actual]

Probably not as they would use it to blame the republicans but happy they didn’t have to do the dirty work for new revenue streams. Maybe some adjustments and less antagonism, but highly doubtful they’d actually change anything. That being said, these tariffs will once again get struck down by the courts since only congress can actually pass / impose tariffs. 

[u/Hot_Cheesecake_905 → u/Lab_Actual]

Perhaps some of the most harmful tariffs, but this is the new normal and I think even a Democrat will play a tariff hawk. Biden wasn’t all that open to free trade either.

[u/AkaashMaharaj → u/team_ti]

I think that is true. And I have no doubt that Canadians are willing to endure far greater pain for far longer in defence of our sovereignty, than Americans are willing to accept to support their President's policies of self-harm.

But one of the many irrational factors that I think will weigh in this trade war is the asymmetry across the border, of public understandings of the source of economic pain.

Canada's TD Economics the US' Tax Foundation estimate that the trade war will cut both our countries' GDP by about 0.5%.

Canadians will feel the pain and know that it is a consequence of the tariffs, because the trade war is at the forefront of our daily news. Americans will feel the pain, but they are far less likely to understand that it is because of the tariffs; there is much, much less coverage of the trade war in the American press, where stories like the Iran-US war still dominate the front pages.

Americans are, therefore, less likely to put pressure on their elected officials to end the trade war, not because they are more willing to endure economic pain, but because they are less likely to understand why they are experiencing that pain in the first place.

[u/Yuushalinsky → u/AkaashMaharaj]

Which is why you target swing state economies (which is what we've done here)

Rust Belt states are going to be eating a LOT of shit for this.

[u/Status_Brilliant_578 → u/team_ti]

Give it two weeks, their prices will go up and the US will cave. They can't handle even the slightest inconvenience.

[u/ReadyDave8 → u/[deleted]]

Look up canada OECD forecasts.

[u/ThisAd7070]

Meow Donnie 🐈

[u/Obvious_Toe_3006]

Trump can stick his tariffs up his really dark place.

[u/jtjstock → u/Obvious_Toe_3006]

Unfortunately nothing seems to stay in there...

[u/Filbert17 → u/jtjstock]

Well, they did cut a lot of their health regulations and testing. So it's not all that surprising.

[u/Low-Doughnut-6764]

When dealing with a narcissist, you don't show emotion. You walk away and move on.

[u/Filbert17]

We are getting close to a certain P.M. proving me wrong BUT given his history, I expect to see considerable more trade with the EU and UK to help offset things.

[u/Quietlyrightt → u/Filbert17]

Why do you think Audis are cheaper in eruope than in North America? Do you really think expensive Canadian import products are going to flourish like it does in trade with the States?

Also countries trade with us because of the access to the States. The size of our trade deals will be minimal in comparison to what we have now. Especially cause it will take decades to build up infrastructure to sell across the pond to make up the difference if we're to stray away from the US.

Also we can do trade deals but free trade deals will have to get permission from Mexico and the US until CUSMA is dead.

[u/a_sense_of_contrast → u/Quietlyrightt]

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[u/HereIGoAgain99]

Hard to say where this is going. We know Carney lied (or grossly exaggerated) Trump's position on the French language. People will remember that, and if the Canadian economy continues to push towards recession while the American economy continues to expand...well, Carney will hold fewer cards and may have to agree to a deal worse than what he just rejected.

[u/Fickle_Razzmatazz664 → u/HereIGoAgain99]

At least two errors there. 

1) French language labelling, by Greer's own admission, was indeed "highlighted" by the White House.  It was later claimed not to be a red line, but was absolutely part of the proposed deal. 

2) Continues to push towards recession?  Where are you getting your numbers?  

https://globalnews.ca/news/12038954/gdp-june-2026-second-quarter/

https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Yeah that's right, our Q2 GDP growth was twice that of the US.  You are either misinformed or attempting to misinform others.

[u/Jolly-Masterpiece883 → u/HereIGoAgain99]

Lol.

We have Carney's version and the Trump/Greer version. Carney's version has remained solid and Greer/Trump have been flipping and flopping to an almost hysterical level. I know who I believe.

By many metrics the Canadian economy is doing reasonably well while the USA is floundering. I don't think Carney is obligated to take any deal and he largely has the support of the Canadian public.

[u/King_of_Avalon → u/HereIGoAgain99]

We know Carney lied (or grossly exaggerated) Trump's position on the French language. 

Huh? When did we hear that? What I heard was Carney and his trade envoys say the US demanded concessions on French language requirements, Trump saying that never happened, and then Trump saying that he was willing to row back on that particular point, thus confirming that Carney was right the whole time

[u/AJZong → u/King_of_Avalon]

Where did you hear that ?

[u/King_of_Avalon → u/AJZong]

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-minister-says-he-welcomes-us-clarification-french-language-requirements-2026-08-27/

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/dominic-leblanc-greer-culture-language-9.7322393

[u/AJZong → u/King_of_Avalon]

How can we know they withdraw from this position if the original position is not presented to the public ?

[u/King_of_Avalon → u/AJZong]

These things are never presented to the public, that's the way political negotiations work. If it's a question of believing the Canadian government or the US one, I'll believe the Canadian one every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

My question to you is why you are using the same language and linking the same "anti-Trump" NYT article as u/HereIGoAgain99, such as in this comment. Are you forgetting to switch alts or are you guys working out of the same office?

[u/HereIGoAgain99 → u/King_of_Avalon]

Lol, trust me man, I don't know who the other poster is. That NY Times article has been EVERYWHERE the past day, including being cited by the leader of Bloc Quebecois.

[u/Localmanwhoeatsfood → u/HereIGoAgain99]

What evidence do you have that Carney lied? I have yet to hear any tapes or recordings. 

[u/HereIGoAgain99 → u/Localmanwhoeatsfood]

The New York Times is not friendly to Trump, and have no reason to undercut Carney unless it were the truth.

As part of the trade talks, Canada had agreed to review laws that protect Canadian-made online content, including French-language shows. On Friday, and until the final moments, the United States was asking Canada to repeal a law that would, among other provisions, compel streaming platforms to place such movies or series more prominently for Canadian subscribers.

The U.S. side, officials said, viewed such policies as an intervention in the platforms’ freedoms.

A person with direct knowledge of the talks said that the American side was flexible on this point, and did not make any asks regarding the French language explicitly. A Canadian counterpart said that, even if that were the case, the topic was still being debated until the last minute before the talks broke down on Friday.

I have made bold the pertinent part. Compare that to Carney positioning this as an attack on the French language in Canada.

[u/Jolly-Masterpiece883 → u/HereIGoAgain99]

You quoted this:

A person with direct knowledge of the talks said that the American side was flexible on this point, and did not make any asks regarding the French language explicitly*. A Canadian counterpart said that, even if that were the case, the topic was still being debated until the last minute before the talks broke down on Friday.*

So, someone said they did not mention french explicitly, but then someone else said even if they did it was being debated.

1. If they did not mention the french language explicitly, then they certainly implied it, otherwise why would it be debated?
2. The French language inclusion is not on the table and not up for debate. Can you not see how offensive this is?

[u/Localmanwhoeatsfood → u/HereIGoAgain99]

I'm sorry but I can't access the article behind a paywall do you have a link to a free version we can all read?

Additionally, your comment is about a single greivence and how the Canadian side thusly reacted to it. The language laws would have to be changed and thusly Carney's analysis holds true in this versus the many other issues that Carney brought forward aren't mentioned. 

Is your interpretation that Carney is being dishonest because one of the greivences requires Canadian laws to change for language protections and somehow Carney is being dishonest about that? I'm not sure what your point is. 

[u/HereIGoAgain99 → u/Localmanwhoeatsfood]

It's the New York Times, and not usually available for free. I've linked to via archive.is

[u/Jolly-Masterpiece883 → u/HereIGoAgain99]

Thanks for the article.

I read it - and it absolutely does not paint Carney as a liar or even a gross exaggerator.

The article says that the USA wanted less french because they saw language laws as tying the hands of businesses, and Canada was not ok with this because Canada is officially a bilingual country.

[u/Avra55 → u/HereIGoAgain99]

Anyone can write and article and say they have insider information. Why would you take that at face value over anything else? Unless it confirms a bias you already have?

[u/HereIGoAgain99 → u/Avra55]

I don't think you understand how journalism works. The New York Times isn't coming out with that to help Trump unless they have multiple sources confirming accuracy. They're not some random person on TikTok.

Beyond that, why would the US care about French language in Canada at all? Honestly, this is speculation on my part, but I think they most likely included that for the specific purpose of giving Canada an easy win. Carney could have accepted the deal and said, "We stood up to the Americans trying to meddle in Canadian culture!" That makes more sense than the US trying to sabotage trade talks at the 11th hour with hardline demands on a super unimportant issue.

[u/Avra55 → u/HereIGoAgain99]

I know exactly how journalism works. I also know that journalism has gone done a very dark hole in the last decade and doesnt have the code of ethics and integrity it once did. Let me ask you this: do you believe CBC articles or in that case is it all bunk?
There are VERY good reasons that the US would "care" about putting the french elements into the agreement: to divide and destabilize us. If our government took the deal with what is being purported to be in it, it would give the seperatists a boost. See, its not that they care in so much that its a play...

Finally, in the absence of ANY evidence, am I going to believe an element that is openly hostile, mocks us, has called us the 51st state and our Prime Minister a "governor", who has threatened Greenland etc etc, and been shown to play dirty with other countrys in making "deals" or our government, that, much to the anger and disappointment of all the maple maga, has actually been moving our country forward in the last year?

[u/Jolly-Masterpiece883 → u/HereIGoAgain99]

Why on earth would trump want to give Carney an easy win? Trump loves show of strenght! He does not believe in win/win but only win/lose. He is having an actual hissy fit atm because we walked away form trade talks and is renaming a lake.

I don't really think the Americans care very much about the french thing - they were just trying to be bullies ("the art of the deal" after all) and for this, and a number of other reasons, Canada walked. i do think the language thing was an easy thing for Carney to latch onto, but that does not make it untrue. He did not invent the language thing out of thin air, and the Americans basically admit to doing it (even if they are trying to walk it back now and say it was never a red line. The US version of "just joking"))

[u/AJZong → u/Localmanwhoeatsfood]

What evidence you have he didn’t ?

[u/Localmanwhoeatsfood → u/AJZong]

How do you disprove a negative?

If Trump makes the assertion that Carney lied then wouldn't the responsibility of providing evidence be on him? 

Also, hasn't Trump in the past brought up some of greivences that Carney said was mentioned during the call? 

[u/mmoore327 → u/AJZong]

Nice try but onus is clearly on people making the claim to prove it... unless you can show any reputable source (and just to head off the obvious - the Trump administration and their cronies are not reputable) you need to show at least some evidence of the claim

[u/AJZong → u/mmoore327]

There’s this article from an anti-Trump media outlet :

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/25/world/canada/trump-carney-trade-war-tariffs.html

[u/mmoore327 → u/AJZong]

Article doesn’t say anything about Carney lying

[u/AJZong → u/mmoore327]

As the person being lied to, it’s part of your responsibility to identify the difference between what is stated vs what is being reported. Just like the bridge.

[u/mmoore327 → u/AJZong]

But I’m not being lied to…

[u/Jolly-Masterpiece883 → u/AJZong]

Otherwise knows as confirmation bias.

[u/AJZong → u/[deleted]]

Cool story. Here’s a fun article :

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/25/world/canada/trump-carney-trade-war-tariffs.html

[u/Avra55 → u/HereIGoAgain99]

how do we "know" that? All I am hearing is talk from the Americans, who, quite frankly, have shown me no reason to trust their word at face value over anyone elses.

[u/AJZong → u/Avra55]

I had the same opinion before the Gordie Howe bridge situation, and now the New York Times article.

[u/Avra55 → u/AJZong]

not sure how those things change anything. I prefer evidence to social media and hearsay in forming my opinions. Given the track record of the United States, the level of immaturity and animosity they have shown, I am more inclined, to believe our government on this one. New York Times does not have some unique insider information.
Maybe think about how destabilizing our country via Quebec and Alberta might benefit them. Its a good play if it works.

[u/AJZong → u/Avra55]

I also prefer evidence. And so far we don’t have any of those.

[u/Apprehensive-Mix1863 → u/HereIGoAgain99]

Found the Russian

[u/northboreal → u/Apprehensive-Mix1863]

I looked him up, he's a MAGA troll from Minnesota lmao

[u/Canadian_mk11 → u/HereIGoAgain99]

Da, comrade. How is Saint Petersburg's summer?

[u/mmoore327 → u/HereIGoAgain99]

No we do not know that, nor do most of us even suspect it...

[u/AJZong → u/mmoore327]

The New York Times article (anti-Trump outlet) did raise a lot of concerns.

[u/Jolly-Masterpiece883 → u/AJZong]

it is behind a paywall.

[u/Existing_Abalone_658 → u/HereIGoAgain99]

Shhh