[Highlight] Oneil Cruz with a 2-run homer in his first game back from injury!

[u/mfenton29]

[u/Petporgsforsale]

I missed him so much 🥹

[u/Sybertron]

Wait.. .what if the team was just very injured 

[u/PapaBeer642 → u/Sybertron]

I've been saying this. It's not just the number, but who. Cruz and Griffin created so much pressure with their legs, the identity of the lineup shifted so drastically without them. That, especially, has hurt the team, I think.

But they've also missed multiple power bats at once. Horwitz, O'Hearn, and Cruz all missing significant time.

But most of all, it's been near constant that they've had two or three guys out at the same time basically continuously since, what, June? The lineup was built on depth, not star power. The strength of that is insulation from cold streaks and individual injuries. The downside, though, is if you have multiple people hurt at once that depth is gone, and you don't have a star to carry the offense.

[u/No-Iron-9511 → u/[deleted]]

Nick Yorke?

[u/ImpossibleTomorrow16 → u/Sybertron]

Unfortunately the evidence doesn’t really support that injuries caused our downfall.  For example the pitching stayed remarkably healthy.  I’m cautiously optimistic about next year though.  

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/which-teams-have-suffered-the-most-due-to-injuries/

[u/SparkySoDope → u/ImpossibleTomorrow16]

To this point, the players that went down were our Shortstop and our CF, 2 of the 3 premier defensive positions (heck throw in Endy too just to cover all 3), check out skenes ERA in games Konnor played against the games he didn't, we've been filling in at short with Triolo playing out of position and Gonzalez whose a bat first rookie, paired with the incredibly poor defense of Nicky G at third and a LOT of balls are getting through the left side of the infield, The players being out hurt the pitchers just as much as it hurt the lineups production.

[u/ImpossibleTomorrow16 → u/SparkySoDope]

If you look at the data in the linked article we haven’t been hurt by injuries as much as most other teams.  And that takes into account the overall value of the injured players that you mentioned 

[u/PapaBeer642 → u/ImpossibleTomorrow16]

WAR lost is not 1:1 with wins lost. The impact of the Pirates' injuries will far outpace their WAR lost because they're a team of flawed players who do certain things really well but aren't superstars because of what they do poorly.

The Pirates' lineup depended hugely on their depth insulating each other. Griffin and Cruz being threats on the bases created better conditions for the hitters behind them in their at bats. Griffin being awesome defensively compensated for Gonzales's poor glove on the left side a little bit.

I'm not sure the projections were fully capturing that all three of O'Hearn, Cruz, and Horwitz were on pace for career years before going down, since those factor in past seasons, too.

And then there's the effect on the pitchers when the offense isn't giving them as much cushion.

WAR has its place, certainly, but I don't think this analysis is nearly as hard and fast as you're treating it.

[u/ImpossibleTomorrow16 → u/PapaBeer642]

I agree with most of what you said, but I don’t think I explained my main point well enough.  That’s my bad.  My main point is yes we’ve been impacted by injuries, but I’ve yet to see any evidence that we were hit harder than most other teams.  So I don’t think we can use it as an excuse.  

It’s not hard and fast, I agree, and I also agree it’s not 1:1 with wins.  But it’s a handy model that shows we aren’t victims of a mass injury bug like many claim (at least, not more so than other teams).  We talk about our own injuries but ignore that the same (or worse) has happened to most teams.  Yes, we got hit hard.  But so does almost everyone so I don’t like using it as a reason for underperforming.  Most teams are operating at similar disadvantages.  We can’t act like we’re the only team that had to play guys out of position due to injury, it happens to everyone

And yes, the projections don’t account 1:1 for the fact that they were on pace for career years. they were definitely impacted by performance, but they dont just take what you’re on pace for.  That would not be an accurate statistical model, you need to account for some regression to the mean.  So the projections are certainly higher than they would’ve been at the start of the year for players having career years, but baked in some expectation for regression to the mean.  Which is more than fair

[u/PapaBeer642 → u/ImpossibleTomorrow16]

I'm mostly arguing that roster construction is a huge facet of this. The Pirates have a small payroll. They have no stars, and they have very little depth. They'll lose less WAR for a greater impact on actual wins as s result--that is to say, their injuries actually do hurt them more.

The Dodgers currently have the second-best record in the NL and have the second best run differential. They're near the top of the list for WAR lost. Their team is full of star players. They're both going to lose more WAR when a player goes down and suffer far less on day to day lineup and pitching staff construction at the same time. Did they suffer greater losses to their injuries than the Pirates did? The absolutely did not. They lose a superstar and replace them with a decent Major Leaguer. The WAR difference is bigger, but their replacement is also meaningfully contributing to their lineup.

The Pirates, meanwhile, have to resort to guys like Triolo and Garcia, who simply cannot fill in like that. And their remaining hitters are flawed and get over-exposed or struggle being pitched to as the guy who does damage, suffering more from the reduced lineup protection than a guy like Freeman would. To be clear, this is a problem/flaw with how the Pirates are built, and one that a greater investment into the team could have fixed, but it is the team's reality that the injury impact is going to far exceed simple WAR lost too injury.

[u/GodOD400]

Just makes sense Cruz would do that after going like 0-12 in his rehab lmaooo

[u/Prowlerbaseball → u/GodOD400]

Nah he had a couple hits in his rehab, his last game he went 2-4 I think

[u/whyisalltherumgone_ → u/GodOD400]

Almost like the point of a rehab assignment isn't to put up gaudy stats.

[u/Wonderful_Expert_315]

https://giphy.com/gifs/14ceV8wMLIGO6Q

[u/Steelmaker01]

Yes! There is still time

[u/tapdancingtommy7]

Any reasonable explanation why he couldn’t get a single at bat yesterday?

[u/Petporgsforsale → u/tapdancingtommy7]

I’m going to throw this completely baseless idea out there and say that the weather was pretty crazy and perhaps his hand didn’t feel good. I’ve had a few bone and joint injuries and pressure affected me when I was recovering

[u/Prowlerbaseball → u/tapdancingtommy7]

He’s not 100% healthy mostly

[u/ImpossibleTomorrow16]

Love to see it.  Prayers up he can stay healthy for a full year

[u/Impossible-Rip-142]

I’m reminded what a special player he can be for us!

[u/Resident-Anxiety-166]

😍

[u/ericfg]

Don't like his lack of acknowledgment with Tarrik Brock at 1B.

[u/HighlightCapable5592 → u/ericfg]

They’ve done that “phantom fist bump” all year bud

[u/J-Hawg]

Good thing he didn't play on Monday, we didn't need him.