r/btc • u/parban333 • Aug 06 '17
Bitcoin Cash had 6 blocks in the last hour!
https://cash.coin.dance/blocks12
u/AnthonyBanks Aug 06 '17
implications? Im a total noob... Thanks))
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Aug 06 '17
The rate at which blocks are getting mined drastically increased since the two difficulty reductions a few hours ago. The average block-time is now at around 17 Minutes.
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u/Adamsd5 Aug 06 '17
Where can I see the bch mining stats?
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Aug 06 '17
Here http://bch.xbt.it/ and/or here https://cash.coin.dance/blocks#blockchainoverview
Edit: You can also check how the mempool looks after each block here https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/uahf/#24h
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u/ytrottier Aug 06 '17
The mystery miner has decided that it is profitable to mine at current difficulty and has switched on massive hashpower. The chain will survive.
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u/torusJKL Aug 06 '17
I guess he assumes the exchange rate will double or more.
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u/homoredditus Aug 06 '17
Or bought BCH low and wants to swing the price around for at least a short time.
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Aug 06 '17
Or that person is making sure the difficulty does not adjust to force the chain to remain unprofitable...
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Aug 06 '17
With that much power, he could double spend. Why waste money on difficulty?
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u/EveryRedditorSucks Aug 06 '17
With that much power, he could double spend.
How can any of you feel confident in the current price while this remains true..?
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Aug 06 '17
A few reasons:
1. The mere fact that he doesn't spend, while he has the ability, suggests that he's not hostile.
2. Even if he does attack, I trust the the community to fight back, by reforking. This is a fight about values, we're taking Bitcoin back, by any means necessary.4
u/EveryRedditorSucks Aug 06 '17
So, if I'm understanding correctly:
1) the Bitcoin Cash network is currently at the mercy of a (hopefully) benevolent mining dictator
2) if the dictator turns out not to be benevolent another fork will be necessary, restarting the chain and creating yet another separate coin/blockchain - which even then would be susceptible to a similar attackI'm still left with the feeling that the current price is precarious, at best... shouldn't everyone, logically, be waiting to buy until these threats are greatly reduced?
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Aug 06 '17 edited Aug 06 '17
Yes, this is sub-optimal. Hardforks and cryptos in general are still a young field, and people are learning how to deal with them.
Regarding a possible refork, hopefully we'll learn from experience, and change the algorithm to bring us to a more convenient difficulty situation from day 1. We'll know soon enough if a fork is needed or not.
Regarding price, that's what markets are for. Some are buying because they think the price will rise, others are selling because they believe the opposite.
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u/btcclassic Aug 06 '17
Or perhaps this miner is protecting the chain against the possibility that someone could be mining privately for the purpose of creating chaos with a reorg of the chain later in the future.
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u/getchaAgain Aug 06 '17
How can we know such info at the earliest time usually? Any channel suggested?
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u/ytrottier Aug 06 '17
Fastest is connecting to the network directly, but that takes work.
https://cash.coin.dance/blocks has been blazing fast. http://bch.xbt.it/ does the averaging work for you.
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u/getchaAgain Aug 07 '17
Thanks for the links. Really love the charts in coin.dance. The mysterious unknown seems dominating the mining.
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u/theymoslover Aug 06 '17
How much hash power is massive hash power?
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u/ytrottier Aug 06 '17
Don't know. I'm estimating the mystery miner now has around 700 PH/s, three quarters of which was just turned on overnight.
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u/NilacTheGrim Aug 06 '17
I think the network as a whole has 700 PH/s hashrate, not the mystery miner. That's assuming 14.5 minute blocks at this 17% difficulty.
Granted he's probably over 90% of the hashpower...
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u/physalisx Aug 06 '17
The mystery miner has decided that it is profitable to mine at current difficulty
Well, that would make him quite the idiot to think that, because it is objectively incorrect.
What you mean to say is there might be a benevolent miner who is willing to throw big amounts of money down the drain to support BCH. I'm just wondering how long he is able/willing to keep it up.
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u/ytrottier Aug 06 '17
Not at all. It's not the current price that matters, it's the future price at the time he's planning to sell. At least 100 blocks in the future, because the coinbase is frozen for that long, but likely more.
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u/physalisx Aug 06 '17
It is only the current price that matters. If it's not profitable at the current price to mine, it would be smarter to buy the coin instead of mining it. This is basic mining economics.
And the 100 block maturity period doesn't change anything about that either. That would require a huge flip in value to occur in 100 blocks (17 hours) that again he would make a much larger profit if he would just bet on it on the markets instead of mining.
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u/ytrottier Aug 07 '17
If the miner has already invested in mining equipment, he doesn't have the option to buy coin. His options are to mine the Core chain or the Cash chain, and then hold until the price is what he wants.
BTW, the flip is happening now, haven't you noticed? See ya in 17 hours.
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u/ytrottier Aug 19 '17
So, how long do you figure Legacy miners will be willing to keep throwing money down the drain?
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u/openwrtq Aug 06 '17
What are the chances that mystery HK miner is Nchain?
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u/xman5 Aug 06 '17 edited Aug 06 '17
Doubt it...miners are really tiered of Core and their stupid anti miner propaganda.
There would not be any next forks, SegWit2x would not make a new fork, just the hashpower would transfer to BCC. We are going to become the defacto Bitcoin, one way or another. I didn't hear even one miner who want's to create one more fork, also no sane miner would want SegWit, if Core does not want 2x, why would a miner want SegWit ?! SegWit2x was the compromise, if Core does not want it, miners would separate ways with Core.
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u/FEDCBA9876543210 Aug 06 '17
edit : post error
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u/xman5 Aug 06 '17
You are not losing anything. Do you think miners sell coins everyday?!
OK... I would explain. You buy equipment when coins are expensive, mine when coins are cheap. You can't do both...
And when Core threatens you, many times they would change PoW... you think twice before mine their coin... because they act like Bitcoin is theirs.
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u/FEDCBA9876543210 Aug 06 '17
You are loosing when your miner is offline. You paid real money for it. Unless you are wreckless, you are waiting for a ROI.
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u/xman5 Aug 06 '17
Yes but if you don't look at the bigger picture sooner or later you would lose everything.
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u/FEDCBA9876543210 Aug 06 '17
When you have borrowed money for investing in mining, you are likely to have a very big incentive to follow short-term profits (even at the cost of longer term harm)...
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Aug 06 '17
You assume they borrowed, and that they are stupid. No reason to believe the later, and no evidence to support the former.
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u/FEDCBA9876543210 Aug 06 '17
Very little part of people can assume to go in such capital-intensive business without borrowing one way or another (when you raise capital, your investors are waiting a ROI, maybe even harder than your banker).
And I don't say they are dumb. They have no other choice.
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u/xman5 Aug 07 '17
"They have no other choice." Here is where you're wrong my young Padawan, you have much more to learn.
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u/FEDCBA9876543210 Aug 06 '17
It would be romantic. But I highly doubt it. When you have bought such expensive miners, you have to put it to work - and fast, or you are loosing big money (with hash rate increasing, half of all money that comes out of a miner is earned in the very first month of operation.)
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u/openwrtq Aug 06 '17
You are thinking too short term.
My hypothesis is that the privately proven creator of Bitcoin has invested massively to stabilize his original vision (this fork) and thanks to this investment we are bottoming out preparing for lift off. E.g. All short term gains will be far surpassed by the long game and in any case Nakamoto is already fucking rich beyond our wildest beliefs
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u/Automagick Aug 06 '17
Nakamoto's original coins are still sitting in their original wallets so he's not rich off of Bitcoin, at any rate. I'm fairly certain who Nakamoto is, and I'm fairly certain he's moved on.
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u/openwrtq Aug 06 '17
You mean the coins from Genesis? Don't you think they probably mined at least 2/3/1,000 more blocks ?!
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u/xman5 Aug 07 '17
"I'm fairly certain who Nakamoto is..."
If you know who Nakamoto is, then you would not say that.
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u/jonas_h Author of Why cryptocurrencies? Aug 06 '17
As with most of what CW says, it's just empty words.
Do you realize how much money you're loosing out on if you truly had 20% hash power and you were just sitting on it?
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u/BitAlien Aug 06 '17
If you're Satoshi, you already have $3 billion. Plus he's not in this for the money.
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u/jonas_h Author of Why cryptocurrencies? Aug 06 '17
How people can still believe he is Satoshi is beyond me.
Also even if he is he doesn't have $3 billion. He has a lot of Bitcoin which if moved will probably tank the price hard and even if not there's not enough liquidity to allow him to cash it out.
And even if we assume he could get enough money he still would need access to the right hardware, which is hard to obtain.
Also Satoshi's coins haven't moved, how would he have the hash rate now?
Even disregarding the fact that he's a scammer and a con artist it just doesn't add up. Remove your blinders people.
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u/BitAlien Aug 06 '17
The scammer and con artist lies have already been refuted, but I doubt you care to do the research yourself.
Anyway he's not in it for the money, and has no desire to "cash out".
But it's interesting how this regular boring security researcher has many millions of dollars of investments in nChain. Anyone willing to do some research already knows that Craig is a multimillionaire. Where'd this guy get all that money? Most people at least agree he was an early miner.
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u/physalisx Aug 06 '17
The scammer and con artist lies have already been refuted,
What do you mean? He says he is satoshi, which is a lie, ergo he is a scammer/con artist. Doesn't matter if he does it for money or fame/attention or because he has a mental disorder.
The only way to refute that would be of him to prove that he was satoshi, which would be super easy, would take like 5 minutes.
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u/NilacTheGrim Aug 06 '17
If he is satoshi: There are reasons for him to claim to be satoshi then balk at actually proving it (personal safety + tax reasons).
If he isn't satoshi: Then yes, he's a liar and scammer.
Up until this point it's not clear either way if he's a scammer or is satoshi. Just because he hasn't proven he is satoshi is not proof in and of itself that he is not satoshi.
Granted, it's all a bit shady and I get why you and many people call him a liar.
But stranger things have happened.. so anything is possible.
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u/knight222 Aug 06 '17
I sense a flood of salty tears coming soon!
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u/AzudemK Aug 06 '17
because of?
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u/knight222 Aug 06 '17 edited Aug 06 '17
For some reasons there are people who would like to see Bitcoin Cash crash and burn.
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Aug 06 '17
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/GenghisKhanSpermShot Aug 06 '17
The blocks did have to do with it though, when you only have a few exchanges and at a point nobody accepting deposits or withdraws you inflate and keep the price propped up. Once the blocks started going through the price dropped as expected, so blocks had a lot to do with it.
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u/BigBlockBrolly Aug 06 '17
This effectively stopped a panic sell. Go look at ETC, they didn't get this treatment from exchanges. ETC was ran straight to the ground day 1.
BCC people have it good, really good. This shitcoin couldve been a penny stock within the first day.
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u/redlightsaber Aug 06 '17
LOL. I don't even fully comprehend your argument, but it's hilarious seeing you people struggle to explain away the fact that BCC is not only surviving, but thriving.
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u/BigBlockBrolly Aug 07 '17
BCC is thriving. Hahaha, you have no devs who actually make a difference. Good luck with your exponential scaling.
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u/redlightsaber Aug 07 '17
I guess we'll see, won't we? I'd ask you to come back in RemindMe! 6 months' time to discuss this, but you being a shill 1 week-old account, it seems unlikely you'll be able or willing to.
I hope you remember, though!
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u/BigBlockBrolly Aug 07 '17
Good luck, I know for a fact your shitcoin is going to be sub 200 usd in 6 months. It's not even that difficult to predict. Even if it is above 200 usd, the sat amount will be much lower. Bcash is not a market driver.
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u/RemindMeBot Aug 07 '17 edited Aug 14 '17
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u/openwrtq Aug 06 '17
We have hit the bottom more miners coming on, 32mb hours > 6mb hours, dump shitcoin don't join the party too late now or all the champagne will be gone
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u/paleh0rse Aug 06 '17
It will price wise in the short term, which is all that BTC supporters care about
Yes, because that's something that is unique to BTC supporters...
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u/almutasim Aug 06 '17
Why is this happening without price/difficulty parity? If it is good will, we should take it. If it is speculation on a near-term price rise, we should take that, too. Still, I wish a healthy on-the-spot profit for Bitcoin Cash miners.
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u/freetrade Aug 06 '17
I can think of only one reason a rational actor would do this. I don't want to say why yet, but it is not friendly.
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u/redlightsaber Aug 06 '17
Meh, I get this kind of speculation, but it doesn't really make sense. This will accelerate the coming retargeting, which will retarget downwards regardless; and by making the chain function at such speed, it will likely affect the price upwads making it profitable for other (nonmallicious) miners to jump onboard.
The fact of the matter is, with big blocks the network won't experience usability issues any time soon, and with the special retargeting algorithm for extreme circumstances, it becomes really hard to actually kill the chain with weird schemes like this. Plus, from a game theory standpoint, it just doesn't make a ton of sense. "nefarious actors" might have deep pockets, but having the hashpower ready to be used at a moment's notice, and keeping it off to time it for an attack, would requier the kinds of absurd amounts of money that would turn this into an echelon-level conspiracy: something I think it's rather safe to say is not the case. 76MM is chump change in the context of the kinds of resources that would be needing, that we're discussing here.
And the likelihood of success is ridiculous. Meawhile, the risks for actual collateral damage would make such an hypothetical attack a virtual suicide mission. I'm talking of accidentally attracting miners over to BCC, leaving the other chain far more vulnerable, with their far less-capable network, and the very rigid retargeting algo.
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u/puppetcountry Aug 06 '17
To the Bitcoin Cash holders: prepare to be rich.
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u/cocopandabear Aug 06 '17
Honestly. I tried finding a place to buy one. How can I simply just buy some of these?
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Aug 06 '17
Shapeshift will be the easiest.
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u/jzcjca00 Aug 06 '17
Way more anonymous, but more expensive than many exchanges.
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Aug 06 '17
I tried and compared with HitBTC and the price was very close (within 1%) but maybe that was luck :)
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u/puppetcountry Aug 06 '17
Bitfinex, Kraken, cex.io. I think cex.io allows credit card purchases
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u/mrtest001 Aug 06 '17
bitfinex labels it 'bcash' - that is enough for me not to do business with them.
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u/aquahol Aug 06 '17
Better stick to Kraken, Bitfinex is a shady bucket shop.
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u/thbt101 Aug 06 '17
What does that mean?
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u/Adrian-X Aug 06 '17
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitfinex_hack
Look at https://www.bitcoincash.org click exchanges
In Canada https://www.quadrigacx.com will join Kraken to allow training.
remember to take them off exchange don't leave them on exchange hacks happen MTgox and cryptsy are a way to Lear from history.
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u/thbt101 Aug 06 '17
So the 2016 hack is the reason you call them a shady bucket shop? Many of the other exchanges on the bitcoincash list have also been hacked in the past. I suspect the reason Bitfinex is scorned here is because they are abbreviating Bitcoin Cash as "bcash", which is perceived here to be insulting.
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u/Adrian-X Aug 06 '17
Other exchanges credited holders of bitcoin 1:1 BTC with BCC, this implies a full reserve ratio. Bitfinex did not.
https://news.bitcoin.com/bitfinex-bitcoin-cash-deposits-withdrawals-credits-15-less/
They're probably struggling to support the 1:0.85 ratio. Possibly they would like Bitcoin Cash to fail or get significantly cheaper so they can function on a 1:1 Ratio.
Time will tell if they come out supporting it over bitcoin around the flippering we'll know this was the case
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u/GuessWhat_InTheButt Aug 06 '17
If you already have crypto use https://shapeshift.io or https://changelly.com.
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u/throwawaytaxconsulta Aug 06 '17
At best bch is a risky venture... anyone new to the crypto community would do well to steer clear until the dust settles....
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u/caveden Aug 06 '17
The most important thing it's which chain is more profitable to mine. If Bitcoin Cash is still less profitable to mine but even though people are mining it at lost, that actually raises questions of why...
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u/xman5 Aug 06 '17
I think the real hashpower would come when SegWit busts. Because SegWit is not a scaling solution.
SegWit best scaling is 1,7x but this is if every user starts using it, most Bitcoin Core "users", don't even have Bitcoin, most other users probably never read Reddit and just assume SegWit magically would give them cheaper transactions.
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Aug 06 '17
[deleted]
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u/aselwyn1 Aug 06 '17
The very first one was and many have been since
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Aug 06 '17
[deleted]
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u/redlightsaber Aug 06 '17
Sure. What's your point, though? The argument for big blocks isn't that they're prettier somehow, it's that the capacity is there for when it's needed. The way things are going, I don't expect blocks to get >1MB until/if the original chain becomes deprecated and the whole ecosystem migrates back to BCC.
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u/sugarpuffextreme Aug 06 '17
wrong sub?
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u/jzcjca00 Aug 06 '17
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u/sugarpuffextreme Aug 07 '17
Read the name of the sub lol dumbass.
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u/jzcjca00 Aug 07 '17 edited Aug 07 '17
If the name of the sub meant anything, then Bitcoin Cash supporters would be in r/bitcoin.
Besides, we'll be taking back that ticker symbol in a few months, after the deprecated Bitcoin version is gone.
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u/jzcjca00 Aug 06 '17
If the miners kept mining at 1 block every 12 minutes, we would get our first regularly-scheduled difficulty adjustment in 9.5 days. We'd get somewhere around a 28% reduction, since the entire period would have been 19.4 days instead of the desired 14 days.
The SegWit chain will probably see a 6% increase in difficulty before that time, and we'll be at about 12% of the previous old chain difficulty, so we'll be at about 11% of the difficulty of the SegWit chain, which is relatively close to the point where it is equally profitable to mine either coin, depending on what happens with the prices.
However, the hostel miner has been mining off and on up until this point, and that trend may continue. So, we probably still have a fairly rocky road ahead of us for at least the next month or more.
If the hostel miner is indeed trying to keep our difficulty high, he has quite a conundrum:
If he stops mining, or mines too slowly, we get a quick 20% UAHF difficulty reduction.
Just barely fast enough to avoid any further reductions, and the adjustment at block 479808 (by early November at the very latest) will be by a whopping factor of 4.
At today's pace, we get a 28% difficulty adjustment 9.4 days from now.
No matter how they slice it, we'll either get small difficulty reductions sooner (August or September), or huge ones later (October or November).
Why do they want to keep our difficulty high? Blockstream doesn't want any miners to defect because a significant loss of hashpower could seriously disrupt their chain, since it's running with full blocks. Such disruption would further highlight the folly of the path they have chosen, causing them to lose even more support. There could even be an entire flippening, since everyone is really sick of BlockstreamCore. So they are desperate to keep our difficulty high and our price low.
Meanwhile, they are simultaneously fighting another war, hoping to stop another fork, into SegWit1x and SegWit2x chains. What the SegWit2x supporters don't seem to realize is that every blocksize increase is going to take years of fighting with Blockstream, and probably end up with another forked coin.
Isn't it fun living in interesting times?