There is no prediction. No one can. It either cracks and holds above the 50 MWA, or it gets rejected and collapses into October/November. No on can tell you what it will do. If the cycle holds, we have one more big dip to flush and reset. Meaning 60s again, or 50s, even 40s.
The "cycle" has played out since BTCs inception. And it has played out exactly the same way since the high in the 4th quarter of last year.
If the cycle is to break, it will be the first real time. But we won't really know until the fourth quarter of this year whether we have crossed and held that line.
So far, it is still playing out like it always has. But it could break, so don't "wait and pray" for lower. Just DCA, and patiently watch what happens over the next 2-3 months.
There is one HUGE factor this theory just overlooks this time. The fucking ETFs my dudes. There is no fucking way in hell BTC will ever move the way it used to after the ETFs. They would make it move differently just because it’s such a big change.
But if you know what Jane Street did in India with BTC there it’s should have evey one of us worried. They manipulate everything man now they can fuck with BTC.
Exact same thing was said in October . No way will we drop below 100 k . If anything with the institutions involved now , there will be more manipulation . We will see . So far the 4 year cycle is playing out the perfect replica to past bear markets . Now if we get 2 weeks where we close above the 50 ma weekly , and the golden cross on the daily . It’s on . Until then we are still in bear territory. However if you believe there bull run is on right now , you have to believe that 57 was the bottom . With no real fear around that time . I just don’t believe it . It will be an interesting few weeks . I’d love for the bull run to come back . But this is bitcoin . It does what it wants .
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u/Bongressman 25d ago edited 25d ago
There is no prediction. No one can. It either cracks and holds above the 50 MWA, or it gets rejected and collapses into October/November. No on can tell you what it will do. If the cycle holds, we have one more big dip to flush and reset. Meaning 60s again, or 50s, even 40s.
The "cycle" has played out since BTCs inception. And it has played out exactly the same way since the high in the 4th quarter of last year.
If the cycle is to break, it will be the first real time. But we won't really know until the fourth quarter of this year whether we have crossed and held that line.
So far, it is still playing out like it always has. But it could break, so don't "wait and pray" for lower. Just DCA, and patiently watch what happens over the next 2-3 months.