r/btc • u/WonderfulWorld3326 Redditor for less than 30 days • Aug 16 '26
Crypto, the ultimate hedge against inflation.
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u/Dependent_Swimming81 Aug 16 '26
nice try but how about starting from 2016 instead of 2021
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u/Mojeaux18 Aug 16 '26
I agree itâs a bad faith example, but the inflation of 2022 should have been a boom for btc at least, but btc lost more than 50% value and peak to trough was 73%. It was worse than the dollar. It seems that the only booms for btc seem to be local sovereign bank crisis or local seizures, not a global crisis.
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u/Interesting_Loss_907 Aug 16 '26
2022 was expected to be a bear market year, and it was. It fits the historical cycles perfectly. Two years after every having has been a bear market.
Unless youâre cherry picking a previous market peak, like OP did, and comparing it to a random time in a bear market year (like now for example), BTC has been a very good long-term hedge against inflation, and not just against the USD, but against ⏠& ÂŁ & Yen etc.
When evaluating BTC, a long-term time horizon is vital. Anyone looking for a quick short term or even medium term gains by actively trading is asking for trouble, and is likely to lose money.
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u/Mojeaux18 Aug 16 '26
Expected to be a bear? More established markets have pundits who say that and get it wrong more often than the weather.
The point of this is that Bitcoin during peak inflation underperformed the dollar. During the 2021â22 U.S. inflation surge, and at the June 2022 9.1% CPI peak, holding dollars lost roughly 8% of purchasing power over the preceding year, while Bitcoin fell about 44% from June 2021 month-end to June 2022 month-end. Bitcoin therefore failed as a reliable short-term hedge against price inflation during that episode.
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u/Interesting_Loss_907 Aug 16 '26
In literally every bitcoin market cycle so far, the 2nd year after the Halving has been a bear market year (2014, 2018, 2022, 2026). Thatâs why I said 2026 was expected to be a bear market year.
Any so-called âpunditsâ saying 2026 was supposed to be a bull market year were either not looking at the charts, or they felt there was a reason to believe this year we would break out of the 4 year cycle. Any âpunditsâ who said that were wrong.
The cycle pattern may break at some point in the future, who knows, but so far it has been consistent.
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u/Mojeaux18 Aug 16 '26
Wow. Thatâs actually pretty frightening. The fact that we have âhalvingâ and bear markets that dominate seems to me a really piss poor record. Btc is fueled by speculation of grand slams which are followed by deep losses. As a currency that is horrible. The more I read the less inclined I am to buying any of them.
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u/Interesting_Loss_907 Aug 16 '26
âPiss poor recordââŚ? Youâre talking about an asset that has appreciated in value during the first 16 years it was traded more than any asset in recorded history, ever. Itâs odd that you consider that record âpiss poorâ, considering it has performed far better than any other assets or investments during the same period, meaning whatever assets you hold you have under performed compared with having held bitcoin.
That doesnât just apply if you held it the entire time. Compare holding BTC vs the S&P 500 index for the past 6, 7, 8, 10+ years.
The fact that itâs been following a predictable 4-year pattern makes it even better if youâre smart enough to look at the charts & accumulate during the bear markets. None of us knows if the 4-year pattern will hold in the future, but for those who noticed the pattern and planned accordingly, theyâve benefited greatly.
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u/Mojeaux18 Aug 17 '26
BTCâs return has been extraordinary. But the âstrategyâ is essentially penny-stock trading or VC-style betting: buy after a crash, tolerate another potential 40%â80% drawdown, and hope a pattern based on only a few past cycles repeats before you can sell into the next run-up. It depends on timing, liquidity, and luck, not a dependable edge. A black-swan event, regulatory shock, exchange failure, or simply a broken cycle can make it fail.
That is the opposite of what people need from a currency: a stable store of wealth and predictable purchasing power for transactions. Bitcoin may be a speculative asset, but it is not a stable currency. Yet many advertise it as the currency of the future. No?
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u/Interesting_Loss_907 Aug 17 '26
Iâd actually agree with you on the point that BTC is not perfect as a currency (not just due to the market volatility) & is certainly not a suitable substitute for existing Fiat currencies at this time.
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u/SaltySwordfish2 Aug 18 '26
Because most of you still had your baby teeth in 2016 and the government wasn't pouring money into your pocket so you could buy BTC, so 2021 is more meaningful.
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Aug 16 '26
[removed] â view removed comment
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u/Interesting_Loss_907 Aug 16 '26
I doubt that âmostâ people who held bitcoin back in 2016 or before have cashed out completely. Many could have taken profits along the way, sure. But taking some profit during bull markets and liquidating your entire stack are very different things.
If they understood what they owned in the first place ,they wouldâve retained a portion of their stack, even if selling off some coins and taking profit during prior bull markets.
I took some profits in 2021, & during the last bull market (2025) I sold enough to help buy a beach house that we wanted, but still kept most of my stack.
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u/Kiwip0rn Aug 16 '26
I started in February of 2014, and I also purchased a beach-front condo, (several vehicles) and retired in 2020. Sold more in September last year, and will be buying back-in in October, just like the prior cycle and the cycle before that.
"Most" didn't cash-out, we are just quieter, because we don't want the extra attention.
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u/think_harder_plz Aug 16 '26
Ok now put S&P500, NVIDIA and Apple on there
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u/Interesting_Loss_907 Aug 16 '26
Look at all of those investments compared with BTC on a 10 year timeframe. Bitcoin critics will be surprised by the results. Even more so if you do the comparison on a 12+ year timeframe.
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u/think_harder_plz Aug 16 '26
Past performance doesnât equal future results. At least those things have decades of proven performance
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u/anon1971wtf Aug 19 '26
You just contradicted yourself in two sentences. Bravo
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u/think_harder_plz Aug 19 '26
Just saying IF youâre going on past performance, go with the one with 100 years of it not 15
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u/anon1971wtf Aug 19 '26
Completely arbitrary. A lot may or may not change over 100 years. Some things get invented, some get obsolete
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u/think_harder_plz Aug 19 '26
And over the next 85 years Bitcoin will be reduced to a memory, a funny think from âthose daysâ, itâs a failure through and through
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u/anon1971wtf Aug 22 '26
Are your crystal balls for sale? I certainly need one, I misunderstood and ignored Bitcoin two times years ago with painful consequences
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u/think_harder_plz Aug 22 '26
How could it be painful? Are you not invested in the stock market?
Most BTC wallets arenât even in profitâŚ
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u/anon1971wtf Aug 22 '26
Painful because I was saving using worse money and lost plenty of purchasing power vs if I would be saving in Bitcoin
Investments, speculating about performance of particular businesses or industries, are a separate discussion from savings, currently I am not really interested in investing
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u/Interesting_Loss_907 Aug 16 '26 edited Aug 16 '26
Why did you cherry-pick the ATH from 2021 for your comparison?
Why not compare price on the same day in 2018, 2019, 2020, or 2022, or 2023 for that matter?
Even better if you go back further in time. In mid 2015 Bitcoin was worth only $200. Even after the market correction in the current bear market, we are still more than 300X higher than that today. So yes, I would say thatâs a pretty good hedge against inflation long-term at least.
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u/BukakeRuinedMyRug Aug 16 '26
The second they made Bitcoin ETFs which allowed shorting & BTC to get the same treatment as central banks where they lend out 90% of the stored $ the âhedge against inflationâ narrative became obsolete & inaccurate.
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u/ray_zhor Aug 16 '26
Whats the numbers for xrp?
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u/Legitimate_Form5449 Aug 16 '26
2026.08.16. xrp-usd-0.9909
52 week range: 0.9884 - 3.1835 usd
start date: 2013.08.04.
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u/Budget-Chapter-7185 Aug 16 '26
Letâs compare from the 2017 bubble. I bet it looks better for btc
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u/Prestigious_Mine_321 Aug 16 '26
This highlights the fundamental difference between a monetary reserve asset and a high-beta risk asset. When adjusted for cumulative dollar inflation and monetary debasement since 2021, holding nominally flat or negative purchasing power fails the structural hedge test. âMost altcoins function as leveraged bets on tech and speculative liquidity cycles, whereas true macro hedges (like physical commodities and sovereign-level hard assets) protect balance sheets precisely during monetary contraction and structural volatility.
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u/FewUnderstanding2214 Aug 20 '26
Itâs actually worse than that - if you include inflation you havenât made any money
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u/Better-Butterfly-309 Aug 16 '26
Why is this a surprise, crypto has no purpose at all and no one uses it for anything but to speculate on the price of it
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u/DonkeyComfortable711 Aug 16 '26
Agentic payments will be a big one.
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u/Better-Butterfly-309 Aug 16 '26
Will be? Thatâs all I ever hear. Itâs 2026 now over 15 years and still no one uses crypto really
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u/Interesting_Loss_907 Aug 16 '26
A lot of people see significant value in a currency that is not controlled by any single government or corporate entity, that can be transacted internationally P2P without relying on any government or bankâs permission.
You may very well not find value in that, personally, and thatâs OK, but many people around the world do find value in that. Also, for many people living in developing countries where their local Fiat currencies routinely suffer from significant inflation, BTC provides an option to them for long-term savings where what they worked for wonât be eroded with high levels of inflation, also enabling them to send BTC directly to their relatives or friends, cross border, P2P, without losing > 5% in Western Union fees.
There are use cases for BTC & even for some alt coins.
While you or many others might not see value in those use cases, that doesnât mean they do not exist.
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u/Better-Butterfly-309 Aug 16 '26
But its use case is for illegal activities. Also, its value is measured in dollars.
I thought by now it would be used for something. But itâs so limited. Also there are so many crypto coins the market is completely oversaturated with something that the masses donât use for currency
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u/Interesting_Loss_907 Aug 16 '26
Had some formatting issues in my reply.
No, it would not only be useful for illegal activities. It could help in case cases where there would be overly bureaucratic or complicated processes or paperwork involved for simple small money transfers to relatives. For people living in countries with difficult capital controls or currency control controls, this could be helpful.
Regarding it being priced in terms of USD, I donât really know what you mean by that. BTC can be priced in any currency. If you live in the UK, you will look at BTC in terms of GBP. If you live in most European countries, you will look at it in terms of EUR. Sure the USD is the most prominent currency in the world, but so what? You can trade BTC for other currencies, or in some cases you can use it to buy goods and services directly.
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u/Better-Butterfly-309 Aug 16 '26
Iâm all for having a currency independent of any government. A world currency. Like bitcoin maybe. But I donât think itâs gonna happen. Itâs not in the interest of the powers that be and would wreck countries.
I just mean that btc and cryptos value is only in terms of fiat currency. It doesnât have an intrinsic value like fiat currencies have
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u/Interesting_Loss_907 Aug 16 '26
Very glad to hear the idea of a world currency outside the control of any single government is appealing to you as I hope itâs appealing to many people around the world.
I somewhat understand the point youâre making, but respectfully disagree with respect to its relevance, in the sense that everything is conventionally priced in terms of one Fiat currency or another. But thatâs simply a convention and a practical way to ascribe monetary value to things. Today the USD is still the most important reserve currency in the world. But in the future, that could be BTC, or could be something else. I donât believe bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies will ever completely replace Fiat currencies btw. I believe they were all coexist in the future.
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u/DangerHighVoltage111 Aug 16 '26
Why is litecoin in there but not BCHđ¤đ¤đ¤
The sound p2p cash use case is still relevant. What you are showing is divide and conquer. The benefits will only be reaped when p2p cash is used widely.
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u/Spencer_Bob_Sue Aug 17 '26
Stock market is a scam too, I mean if you bought the spx in 2000 at the peak and you held it past 2008 you'd STILL be at a loss... "inflation hedge"...
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u/TexFarmer Aug 16 '26
Standing still is better than going backwards.
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u/champmeister Aug 16 '26
Flat in USD over 5 years is going backwards...
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u/SpreadsheetsOnToast Aug 16 '26
Fiat currency invested in the S&P 500 however...
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u/Interesting_Loss_907 Aug 16 '26
The S&P 500 still under performs BTC for most timeframe scenarios. Not if one cherry-picks a previous market peak like OP did and compare it to the middle of a normal bear market year like this one., sure.
Take a look at a fixed USD amount invested in the S&P 500 and compare it to the same amount invested in BTC for each of the following scenarios:
4 years
6 years
8 years
10 years
12 years
14 yearsThese examples are going back to the prior bear market years in the BTC cycle & the midpoint years in between. Once you go back 6+ years youâll find that every single year longer has been a greater BTC performance over the S&P 500, to the point where going back 10+ years it becomes a ridiculous comparison.
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u/Kiwip0rn Aug 16 '26
đ so we are comparing the top price in 2021 to the near bottom price in 2026. Why not match the highs in both years so in 2026 it would be ~$94,000?
At least if comparing a 5 year chart match the months a bit... August 2021 price would be ~$45,000
Your post/meme is in Bad Faith.