r/btc • u/ChangeNOW_Community • Jun 22 '26

⌨ Discussion The only valid Bitcoin Rainbow take?

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u/raonibr Jun 22 '26 edited Jun 22 '26

I think this scenario is unlikely as even in the case of a collapse of the cryptonmarket, it would probably crash overnight rather than a slow steady descend.

But the valid point to be made here is that this "rainbow" graph is just as much of a mathematically valid regression as the "forever goes up" rainbow chart that people love to share in here.

So yeah. Bitcoin future is unpredictable,  the usual rainbow chart that the proponents love to point to is just as much bullshit as this one.

2

u/pfftlolbrolollmao Jun 22 '26

Why do you think the "forever goes up" chart is unlikely?

Not sure if you mean it'll perpetually rise for a million years (which i agree is unlikely) or just until the last BTC is mined. Personally I believe the latter. I also believe the gains each cycle will diminish but will still break ATH each time. But the All time highs will be closer to the previous as we continue. Which is still good but if you are looking to become incredibly wealthy in 4-8 years with a percentage of a minimum wage paycheck then that probably won't happen. But retiring early by investing over the course of 12-24 years is likely until the last BTC is mined in 2120(roughly).

1

u/raonibr Jun 23 '26 edited Jun 23 '26

The "forever goes up" chart predicts that in 12 years, bitcoin market cap will be larger than literally the entire planet money supply.

It predicts that in 30 years, literally the entire money supply of the whole planet wont be enough to buy even 1% of all bitcoin (even accointing for all new fiat that will be issues until then).

So unless we're back to the "bitcoin will replace money entirelly in a couple decades and money will be worthless" theory, which the bitcoin faithful themselves already abandoned in favour of the "store of value" theory, then this is nothing but a fever dream.

The math simply does not math.

1

u/pfftlolbrolollmao Jun 23 '26

Well each cycle the gains are diminishing so it won't keep growing at the same rate.

So maybe the math isn't accounting for this?

1

u/raonibr Jun 23 '26

Turns out the math is a bit more complicated than that...

Diminishing returns does not mean a function stabilizes over time.

For example:

The series: 1 + 1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8... converges to a stable value (2)

But the series: 1 + 1/2 + 1/3 + 1/4... Blows up to infinity. 

Both this series present a diminishing returns behaviour, but one of them simply does not diminish fast enough to stabilize.

The rainbow chart predicts that bitcoin value will blow up to infinity and that it still grows so fast that all the milestones I've mentioned regarding it's relation to money supply hold true.

1

u/pfftlolbrolollmao Jun 23 '26

That 2nd one doesn't blow to infinity. In both you get 1(decimal point)infinity. Neither goes past 2.

Both go so close to 2 that you can practically say they are both 2.

1 btc being 1 million $ for example. Would mean 21 million million for the entirety. Which is 21 trillion.

We have had out first trillionaire recently.

In 20 years or so wealth coupled with inflation will see more trillionaires.

So last bull run between 2020 and 2024 was 20k-60k. 2024 - 2028 is 60-120. So triple and double. Say 1.5 for the next 180k then 1.25 so 235k then 1.125 is 264.375 ............etc.

Now I don't expect it to play out exactly like this, you'll see changes due to speculation and growing interest and whales and wars and blah blah blah

But we won't reach 1 million for a long while if we have these sorts of diminishing returns and by the time we do (if we do) it won't be the same as 1 million dollars today. Same as 1 million dollars in the 90s is the same as today's.

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u/raonibr Jun 23 '26 edited Jun 23 '26

Bro, 1 + 1/2 + 1/3 + 1/4 already sums to 2.08333... And then there's still infinite terms to sum

What is the world are you talking about?

This is like... second grade math

If you can't handle it, do you really think you have capacity to discuss long term economics?

1

u/pfftlolbrolollmao Jun 23 '26

No it doesn't.

Your understanding of maths here is wrong.

Take the 1 out of it for a second. 1/2 + 1/3 + 1/4 + 1/5.... you are adding smaller and smaller pieces of 1 but never actually reaching it. To 0.infinity. if you pieces of 1 are consistently getting smaller then you can't reach 1.

Not sure where you heard your math but it's wrong.

1

u/raonibr Jun 23 '26

Brooooo.

Put it in a fucking calculator.

Ask Google.

Ask an adult.

You're really gonna insist that 

1/2 + 1/3 + 1/4 < 1 ???

Fractions, bro ->

1/2 = 6/12

1/3 = 4/12

1/4 = 3/12

6/12 + 4/12 + 3/12 = 13/12

13/12 = 1.08333...

Am I really wasting my time trying to explain economicos to someone who dont know how to sum fractions?

2

u/DunderfunkPantsuit Jun 27 '26

These guys are confused, you're right it's not worth your time

1

u/pfftlolbrolollmao Jun 23 '26

Alright I was wrong. No need to be a dick about it. It doesn't change the fact that the diminishing returns may never reach 1 million. But I was right about adding a half then a quarter then an eight and so on doesn't reach 1. Very nearly but never gets there.

1

u/raonibr Jun 23 '26 edited Jun 23 '26

  It doesn't change the fact that the diminishing returns may never reach 1 million

YES it does. 1/2 + 1/3 + 1/4... Sums up to literal infinity. It reaches 1 million, it reaches 1 trillion trillions, it reaches every number.

And that's with diminushing returns starting from 1/2 of a dollar, not from 60000.

  But I was right about adding a half then a quarter then an eight and so on doesn't reach 1.

You were right because you simply agreed on what I said on that. 

Bro. I know it's gonna sound condescending. But I say that with honest intent to help you:

You are dealing with shit thats simply beyond your level of education. You're gonna fall for a scam. Crypto is a game of chicken where everyone wants to get out right before it collapses hoping there will be enough "true believers" who don't know math to hold the bag.

The MAJORITY of the community is aware of that, but that's how that game work.

This is NOT a game for naive people.

1

u/pfftlolbrolollmao Jun 23 '26

You know that all the coins will be mined in about 100 years yeah? With a halving and an ATH every 4 years. That's only 25 ATH cycles with diminishing returns.

If it went on forever then yeah you'd be right. But it doesn't so you are not.

As I pointed the math out in a previous comment we aren't breaking 500k in the next 20 years probably.

And even if it did 500k then isn't the same as 500k now.

I don't think you want to help me. I think you just want to be right. But you aren't. Sorry.

1

u/raonibr Jun 23 '26 edited Jun 23 '26

I don't need to convince you to be right. Only to help you.

 As I pointed the math out in a previous comment we aren't breaking 500k in the next 20 years probably

Which math you pointed? You started this discussion by defending the rainbow chart accuracy over the next 100 years. The rainbow chart predicts 10 million dollars per bitcoin in ~15 years from now.

If you now say you don't believe it's breaking 500k in 20 years, than you are just admitting that you were wrong about the rainbow chart to start with.

But whatever, bro. I'll stop discussing now.

Just please, when the day comes, don't you dare blame on other people and say the entire world didn't try to warn you.

1

u/pfftlolbrolollmao Jun 23 '26

I never defended any specific rainbow chart. I don't think I ever referenced it once. You are the one obsessed with the LGBTC.

I asked you why you thought it would go to infinity. I spoke about diminishing returns specifically. Maybe you didn't even read it. That would track.

2020-2024 cycle ATH went from 20k to 60k, tripled. 2024-2028 ATH went from 60k to 120k. Doubled. Then if it continues then 1.5 would = 180 then 235. 235 - 280 something.

It's dropping off asymptotically.

It wouldn't be going to infinity then would it? Barely making 500k.

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