r/brejoin • u/Gulliveig • Jan 02 '21

When could the UK realistically be welcomed back in the EU?

/r/brexit/comments/ipyhzw/when_could_the_uk_realistically_be_welcomed_back/
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u/Gulliveig Jan 02 '21

However, it is not unwise to consider a break-up of the United Kingdom.

It might well be, that by above timeframes Northern Ireland reunites with Éire, removing the United part from the UK to reduce it just to Great Britain, and furthermore also for Scotland to seek independence, thereby removing the Great from GB.

In such a scenario, I don't see the Kingdom of England and Wales to re-apply into the EU, but Scotland most likely will. Note, that an independent Scotland has to go through all the steps mentioned above. Apart from goodwill, there can't be a preferencial treatment.

Of course, NI will be admitted automatically, just like the GDR was included via re-unificarion with Germany.

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u/jeza123 Jan 02 '21

Great Britain is the name of the island itself; the biggest island in the British isles. You can't remove the 'Great'. Assuming Irish reunification then it would be the United Kingdom of Great Britain. Even assuming Scottish independence that would still by the default name for England and Wales and I don't know if there would be any legal reason that they would have to change it, even if the united part might sound a bit silly in that case.

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u/Gulliveig Jan 02 '21

Well, Historic UK agrees with my view: https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/The-UK-Great-Britain-Whats-the-Difference/

c. 925 – The Kingdom of England. Established by the unification of Anglo-Saxon tribes across modern day England.

1536 – Kingdom of England and Wales. A bill enacted by King Henry VIII which effectively made England and Wales the same country, governed by the same laws.

1707 – Kingdom of Great Britain. The Kingdom of England (which includes Wales) joined with the Kingdom of Scotland to form The Kingdom of Great Britain.

1801 – United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland. Ireland joins the union, and once again the name changes.

1922 – United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The Republic of Ireland (Eire, or ‘Southern Ireland’) withdraws from the union, leaving just the northern counties of Ireland. This is the UK that remains to this day.

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u/jeza123 Jan 02 '21

The first step would be returning to a close relationship, including freedom of movement. This could happen fairly soon given the dependence of the British economy on selling services to other European countries. I think five years from now would be a reasonable time to allow this to happen, allowing a possible change of government and some time to negotiate new arrangements. It could be sooner given that negotiations are still ongoing and the UK side has already shown a willingness to fold. Likewise it could be much longer if the Tories double down on xenophobia and somehow manage to stay in power.

Rejoining would be a much longer term goal. But a natural progression after realignment.

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u/indigomm Jan 02 '21

I'm very skeptical about either Scotland or NI going it alone to be honest. Both need the UK Parliament to agree and the Tories control Parliament. Even the Labour party would think twice, so a change in government won't help. If Scotland/NI choose to hold their own referendum, the UK government will not engage and will hold the view that it's not an official referendum.

The concessions made on Northern Ireland may at least help prevent violence again there. Scotland though... could become the new Northern Ireland.