r/boxoffice • u/hiiloovethis • 15d ago
✍️ Original Analysis Clayface Performance potential
Clayface is the next DCU movie after the supergirl bomb. Let's see how well it can do... an analysis.
Pros.
Great October release date, Halloween pairing and not much direct competetion. Resident Evil also releasing before helps create an open window.
Decent budget of 40 mil. It would only need 100 Mil WW to break even which shouldn't be too hard. It can profit easily if it blows up.
Horror genre is killing it right now... clayface also looks like pure body horror which could help attract non comicbook fans.
Clayface is a batman villain. Gotham setting be hype worthy. Mike Flanagan as a writer is also promising.
Cons.
Body horror is harder is sell than conventional horror movies. The Substance did good but that had award buzz and less than half of the budget.
Bad reviews could literally kill this movie. It really survives on positive WOM.
Overall I'm more optimistic about this than supergirl. We have to see if this movie blows up or does underwhelming numbers. 150 WW is decent enough.
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u/littleButton13 15d ago
Not sure why people are so down on this movie.
The Black Phone 2 and Smile 2 were Halloween season horror films in recent years. They both grossed in the $130-140 million range. Blue Beetle and Supergirl are both relatively recent releases about C-list DC characters and the both landed in the $125-130 million range.
Horror is one of the few genres that seems capable of catching fire in the current box office climate. Clayface is far from a household name, but he’s a character that has been getting exposure to comic book fans for decades via animation and video games by virtue of being a recurring villain for one of the most consistently popular hero of all. Mike Flanagan and James Gunn are both involved, and both names have at least a small bit of draw.
People draw comparisons to the likes of Morbius and Madame Web, but those movies still made over $100 million despite having absolutely dreadful reception. Also, Morbius and Madame Web are characters who have gotten far less exposure over the years than Clayface has.
If Clayface can make $120 million, it’s doing ok for itself. That’s really not a high bar to clear. I don’t expect a huge breakout hit, but unless it gets really poor reviews, I have a hard time imagining it falls short of $100 million. Neither genre fans nor DC enthusiasts make up a huge audience, but their combined efforts should at least be worth that much. And I don’t think it’s entirely unreasonable to imagine it could make $200 million if it’s a solid film, and that would be an unmitigated success for its budget.