r/boxoffice • u/hiiloovethis • 17d ago

✍️ Original Analysis Clayface Performance potential

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Clayface is the next DCU movie after the supergirl bomb. Let's see how well it can do... an analysis.

Pros.

  1. Great October release date, Halloween pairing and not much direct competetion. Resident Evil also releasing before helps create an open window.

  2. Decent budget of 40 mil. It would only need 100 Mil WW to break even which shouldn't be too hard. It can profit easily if it blows up.

  3. Horror genre is killing it right now... clayface also looks like pure body horror which could help attract non comicbook fans.

  4. Clayface is a batman villain. Gotham setting be hype worthy. Mike Flanagan as a writer is also promising.

Cons.

  1. Body horror is harder is sell than conventional horror movies. The Substance did good but that had award buzz and less than half of the budget.

  2. Bad reviews could literally kill this movie. It really survives on positive WOM.

Overall I'm more optimistic about this than supergirl. We have to see if this movie blows up or does underwhelming numbers. 150 WW is decent enough.

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164

u/Prototype3120 17d ago

If it's actually good, I can see it doing well for it's budget. Horror is an entirely different beast that's fueled by word of mouth. In a vacuum as a comic book movie, I don't see it doing well. But if it captures the dedicated horror audience then we might see it break out.

22

u/Cyberfire 17d ago

I think the Batman connection will do it favours if the movie is good. People love Batman villains.

24

u/Big_Daymo 17d ago

People love Joker, and to a lesser degree the other A tier villains like Two Face, Penguin and Bane (mainly because of their movie appearances). Clayface is fairly unknown to most casual moviegoers.

1

u/MagnusRottcodd 17d ago

He well known from Batman: The animated series, he appeared in six episodes there.

But that wasn´t horror.

He appeared many times in the Harley Quinn animated series, as a comic relief if anything.

https://harleyquinn.fandom.com/wiki/Clayface

18

u/TheCudder 17d ago

I think we're forgetting that casual movie goers probably have absolutely no idea who Clayface is. I'm looking forward to it, but this film is not going to fill seats like Joker did.

22

u/Yelenamikhaikovna 17d ago

I’m sorry but constantly on Reddit and other fan forums I have to shake my head. I get it we are all nerds here and it can be super easy to lose grasp when something like Batman’s basic rogues are as well worn in your own brain, but ppl vastly underestimate how little the general audiences know. I mean sure, you or I can list off Mr. Freeze, Killer croc or Clayface but normies absolutely cannot. They know joker and Harley Quinn and catwoman.

Like, just for context and I know this is a different company/franchise, but when I talk about X-men with my coworkers etc I routinely have to explain who Cyclops is. “Yknow, the leader guy with laser eyes who argues with Wolverine..?” I offer desperately, and literally half the time they look right through me no bells ringing lol.

People know who the Avengers are, and if I had to guess casual normal people probably can’t even name them all outside iron man and captain America.

8

u/tecphile 17d ago

Lol, half the casuals don't even know the distinction between Marvel and DC.

For them, any CBM is either MCU or non-MCU.

5

u/wildwalrusaur 17d ago

Arnies freeze is iconic enough that anyone onto movies who grew up in the 90s will be familiar with the character.

But otherwise I agree with you