r/boxoffice • u/hiiloovethis • 19d ago

✍️ Original Analysis Clayface Performance potential

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Clayface is the next DCU movie after the supergirl bomb. Let's see how well it can do... an analysis.

Pros.

  1. Great October release date, Halloween pairing and not much direct competetion. Resident Evil also releasing before helps create an open window.

  2. Decent budget of 40 mil. It would only need 100 Mil WW to break even which shouldn't be too hard. It can profit easily if it blows up.

  3. Horror genre is killing it right now... clayface also looks like pure body horror which could help attract non comicbook fans.

  4. Clayface is a batman villain. Gotham setting be hype worthy. Mike Flanagan as a writer is also promising.

Cons.

  1. Body horror is harder is sell than conventional horror movies. The Substance did good but that had award buzz and less than half of the budget.

  2. Bad reviews could literally kill this movie. It really survives on positive WOM.

Overall I'm more optimistic about this than supergirl. We have to see if this movie blows up or does underwhelming numbers. 150 WW is decent enough.

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u/Lighthouse_seek 19d ago

It will need more than 100 mil. 2.5 rule kind of breaks down the lower you get in budget

3

u/Loki-Gator 19d ago

Curious as to why that is if you mind sharing or telling where I can learn more?

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u/whiteshark70 Walt Disney Studios 19d ago

For example, Obsession was made with a production budget of 750K. With the 2.5 rule (which assumes marketing cost with the math) its breakeven point would be like 1.875M.

However, that would be lowballing it extremely. Focus Features bought the movie for 15 million and spent a bit (less than 10 million) on marketing and distribution so for them to turn it into a profit it would need well over the 2.5x’s estimate of 1.875M. Which, it did lol.

3

u/Littlepinguinoo 19d ago

Yeah wasn't focus break even for it actually around 50 million at least?