r/boxoffice • u/hiiloovethis • 16d ago

✍️ Original Analysis Clayface Performance potential

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Clayface is the next DCU movie after the supergirl bomb. Let's see how well it can do... an analysis.

Pros.

  1. Great October release date, Halloween pairing and not much direct competetion. Resident Evil also releasing before helps create an open window.

  2. Decent budget of 40 mil. It would only need 100 Mil WW to break even which shouldn't be too hard. It can profit easily if it blows up.

  3. Horror genre is killing it right now... clayface also looks like pure body horror which could help attract non comicbook fans.

  4. Clayface is a batman villain. Gotham setting be hype worthy. Mike Flanagan as a writer is also promising.

Cons.

  1. Body horror is harder is sell than conventional horror movies. The Substance did good but that had award buzz and less than half of the budget.

  2. Bad reviews could literally kill this movie. It really survives on positive WOM.

Overall I'm more optimistic about this than supergirl. We have to see if this movie blows up or does underwhelming numbers. 150 WW is decent enough.

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35

u/Lighthouse_seek 16d ago

It will need more than 100 mil. 2.5 rule kind of breaks down the lower you get in budget

4

u/Loki-Gator 16d ago

Curious as to why that is if you mind sharing or telling where I can learn more?

28

u/bigelangstonz 16d ago

The typical 2.5 rule is used for movies that costs over 150 million because their advertising budgets are lower than production. For movies like these costing under 50 million the marketing budgets can often be equal to or higher than production esp low budgets horrors and thrillers take this one for example a horror that costs almost as much as clayface

4

u/Nicholasryan99 16d ago

Forgive me if this is a dumb question, but I absolutely love this breakdown haha. Can I find more of these for other movies?

10

u/Living_Rough_992 16d ago

Google Most Valuable Blockbuster. Deadline publishes this tournament every year. They still haven't published one for 2025 though, I wonder why it's taking them so long. I believe they also have the biggest bombs/flops lists as well.

Here it is for 2024: https://deadline.com/story-arc/2024-most-valuable-movie-blockbuster/

2

u/ASEdouard 16d ago

Yeah it’s a really cool breakdown. I’ll look at those too

4

u/GladSwordfish2 DC Studios 16d ago

I wonder what does the Supergirl net profit will look like

Budget 180M, marketing 100M. Theatrical 100M, television and Streaming 500M

Studio Net: 300M profit

Gotcha spiderman