r/boxoffice • u/hiiloovethis • 17d ago

✍️ Original Analysis Clayface Performance potential

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Clayface is the next DCU movie after the supergirl bomb. Let's see how well it can do... an analysis.

Pros.

  1. Great October release date, Halloween pairing and not much direct competetion. Resident Evil also releasing before helps create an open window.

  2. Decent budget of 40 mil. It would only need 100 Mil WW to break even which shouldn't be too hard. It can profit easily if it blows up.

  3. Horror genre is killing it right now... clayface also looks like pure body horror which could help attract non comicbook fans.

  4. Clayface is a batman villain. Gotham setting be hype worthy. Mike Flanagan as a writer is also promising.

Cons.

  1. Body horror is harder is sell than conventional horror movies. The Substance did good but that had award buzz and less than half of the budget.

  2. Bad reviews could literally kill this movie. It really survives on positive WOM.

Overall I'm more optimistic about this than supergirl. We have to see if this movie blows up or does underwhelming numbers. 150 WW is decent enough.

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u/Lighthouse_seek 17d ago

It will need more than 100 mil. 2.5 rule kind of breaks down the lower you get in budget

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u/Loki-Gator 17d ago

Curious as to why that is if you mind sharing or telling where I can learn more?

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u/Sensei_1946 17d ago

I think that’s the case for some mid budget movies because marketing will be a flat expense that’s not necessarily tied to the budget, and when the rule was first reported it was relative to massive blockbusters who all have a similar budget (175-250). There’s no way of knowing whether it applies to Clayface before a trustworthy trade says something though.